The Rondo: Can the Americans win the group by beating Australia?

USMNT Rondo

The USMNT's second group game will either guarantee that they have a carefree stroll into the knockouts or make for a nervy third fixture.

And now comes the make-or-break game. Paraguay was all about starting well. Fail to win your first World Cup fixture, and the alarm bells go off. This thing could go very wrong.

Well, the USMNT did the opposite. They battered their CONMEBOL opponents, running out very much deserved 4-1 winners after an enthralling 45 minutes of football. This is the weird one, though. If the results go the U.S.'s way, they can top the group with a win over Australia this afternoon. A Turkey-Paraguay draw in the other fixture (possible) will ensure that the job gets done with a game to spare.

But the Socceroos are no easy opposition. They beat a very good Turkey side to open the tournament, and although not blessed with the attacking talents of old, are an organized unit who won't give up anything easily. In short, the U.S. will have their work cut out for them. And it, unfortunately, gets worse. Christian Pulisic,so often struggling with injury, might be hurt again.He has been described as 'day to day' all week, and, as of the time of publication, we really don't know if he will play a part.

No way this goes wrong, then... GOAL writers break a big match down in another edition of... The Rondo.

Gio Reyna USMNT World Cup 2026 Paraguay goal

Who wins USA-Australia?

Tom Hindle: Hard to see anything that isn't a USMNT victory here, isn't it? They were simply too good against Paraguay, and if they can repeat that calibre of performance, this should be comfortable enough. Some of the pre-game chatter has given this one a bit of needle, which is good fun. But the U.S. should have a bit too much on the day.

Ryan Tolmich: USMNT, but it's a nervy one. This is going to be physical and it's going to be tight, which means it's going to come down to gamechangers. Australia has some, and Nestory Irakunda showed he is one against Turkey. The USMNT, though, seemingly have more. They'll have learned a lesson for Turkey's arrogance, too, which means they won't be caught off guard in this one.

Alex Labidou: Victory for the Americans, but this is going to go to the wire. Late winner from Reyna to continue the redemption arc. Watch this space.

United States Training & Media Availability - FIFA World Cup 2026

If Christian Pulisic can't play, how concerned should we be?

TH: Well, losing your best player ain't good! The USMNT have depth at striker, and that's about it. Pulisic is integral to absolutely everything they do. They are not the same without him. It will, in honesty, be interesting to see what Pochettino does here. Does he risk his main man a little, hope to get the win, and then rest him for the final group game? Or is it exercise maximum caution and bench him? Would personally vouch to get him in and then wrap him in cotton wool for two weeks, but Poch is the gaffer.

RT: Pretty concerned. It's not going to be easy to break Australia down and there are few players in this team that can beat a defender quite like Pulisic can. He showed that on the opening goal last game, creating the type of moment needed to really create a goal. On Friday, Sergino Dest was asked who was the best in the USMNT at beating a defender one-v-one, after him of course. His answer: Pulisic. If he can't go, someone else will have to find ways to make Australia uncomfortable.

AL: Worried about the longer-term implications, but the U.S. should be able to beat Australia without Pulisic. What you'd worry about is the fact that the U.S. could be on the verge of doing something special in this tournament, and they need their best player to pull that off.

Australia v Türkiye: Group D - FIFA World Cup 2026

Who's Australia's biggest threat?

TH: This is a bit of a weird generation of Aussies in that they don't really have too many players doing it at a high level in the Premier League. Then again, we are painfully Eurocentric when it comes to this sport sometimes, and that doesn't mean they're all rubbish. Nestory Irankunda is a livewire on the left side and will keep Sergino Dest busy, though.

RT" Irakunda. It's no mystery that the USMNT's defense has been a little bit sloppy over these last few months, and it's also no secret that this backline can be beaten by pace. Irakunda has that. If he gets into a foot race with Ream, how do you think that goes? There's only one way that's going to end. Meanwhile, Chris Richards is fresh off an ankle injury, and the USMNT's fullbacks have a tendency to bomb forward. That means Irakunda is someone who could break out and, if he does, he'll break out fast.

AL: Since everyone is going with Irankunda, and I agree with that pick, I’ll go with Mathew Ryan. The veteran goalkeeper has played at a high level in Europe and has been confident all week about Australia’s chances of beating the U.S. For all of the positives the USMNT showed against Paraguay, Matt Freese wasn’t really tested. If this turns into a tight game where one save could change everything, Ryan’s experience could be a difference-maker.

USA v Paraguay: Group D - FIFA World Cup 2026

Who needs to have a big game?

TH: All of them! Australia aren't exactly an uber defensive team, but they will play five at the back and dig in a little bit. That means it's a big day for the U.S.'s difference makers in the final third. Pulisic is a no-brainer, but it would be good to see Malik Tillman provide a bit more in attack. His off-ball work was elite against Paraguay, but he left a bit to be desired when he had it. A goal contribution would do him the world of good.

RT: Balogun. The Paraguay game was relatively open. This one won't be, but Balogun should still be ready for that. If Pulisic can't go, in particular, it'll be up to someone else to really shoulder the attacking responsibility. Balogun can do that, either on his own or by bringing people into the game. That'll be crucial.

AL: Let's go with Malik Tillman, especially if Pulisic isn't able to play or isn't at his best Friday. Tillman did everything but score last week and Pochettino might have unlocked a new position for prototypical No. 10, lining him as a No. 8. If the Leverkusen midfielder can continue his recent form, the Americans should have no issues locking up the group.

FBL-WC-2026-MATCH04-USA-PAR

Should Mauricio Pochettino change his starting XI at all?

TH: Nah. Keep it tidy. We might see some system changes, maybe a switch to a more conventional back four, and even Sergino Dest as a right-winger. But otherwise, this is one not to overthink.

RT: If he doesn't have to, probably not. Everything worked fine and there's plenty of versatility in the team that was assembled to shift tactics. If it ain't broke...

AL: No.

Christian Pulisic USMNT 2026 World Cup Paraguay

How bad would a loss be?

TH: Bad, but not the end of the world. In all likelihood, you might be able to get out of a group with just three points, anyway. But In the interest of momentum, it would be nice to not need anything going into that final game - or, at the very least, not needing to win. Get it done early, lads.

RT: Pretty bad. It would make it very hard to top the group, which means a possible date with Argentina later on. Getting a result in this game is crucial, as it sets up the entire rest of the tournament for this team.

AL: It wouldn't be devasting, but it would be more of the same with the Americans. Over the past two decades, there have been so many opportunties to take the next step forward - only for a setback or underperformance to hold them back. U.S. Soccer needs the USMNT to win the group to showcase that the investment in Pochettino was worth it and that this program can progress. Get it done.