7M - DFB-Pokal Preview: VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg - prediction, team news, lineups

The 2025-26 DFB-Pokal reaches its penultimate stage this Thursday, April 23, 2026, as defending champions VfB Stuttgart host SC Freiburg at the MHPArena. With a place in the Berlin final at stake, this "Baden-Wurttemberg" derby promises high intensity. Stuttgart are looking to become the first team in years to secure back-to-back titles, while Freiburg aim to disrupt the hierarchy and secure their first major trophy under Julian Schuster.

Stuttgart's home dominance and title defense

VfB Stuttgart enter this semi-final as the clear favorites, largely due to their impeccable form at the MHPArena. Sebastian Hoeness has transformed the side into a fortress, securing 11 wins in their last 15 home matches. Despite a recent 4-2 loss to Bayern Munich, Stuttgart’s underlying metrics remain elite, averaging over 2.5 goals per match in the cup this season. As the holders of the trophy, the Swabians possess the big-game experience necessary for knockout football. Their tactical approach, centered on high-intensity pressing and fluid wing play, is expected to put significant pressure on the Freiburg backline from the opening whistle.

Freiburg's resilience amidst fixture congestion

SC Freiburg travel to Stuttgart in strong domestic form, having won four of their last five matches. However, head coach Julian Schuster has expressed concerns regarding squad fatigue as the team balances deep runs in both the Bundesliga and European competitions. Freiburg’s success this season has been built on a disciplined defensive structure, conceding just 0.25 goals per match in the DFB-Pokal so far. While their away record has been inconsistent—with only 4 wins in 15 games on the road—their ability to ground out results in hostile environments makes them a dangerous underdog. They will likely adopt a low block and look to exploit Stuttgart on the counter-attack through pace in transition.

Team news and injury updates

Stuttgart will be without several key players for this clash. Justin Diehl and Lazar Jovanovic are sidelined with muscle and back injuries, respectively, which may limit Hoeness's options for attacking rotation. Freiburg face a more significant injury list; Patrick Osterhage is out until mid-May following knee surgery, while Max Rosenfelder and Daniel-Kofi Kyereh remain unavailable. The return of several first-team midfielders, however, provides a boost to Freiburg’s engine room, allowing them to better contest the middle of the park against Stuttgart’s technical specialists.

Head-to-head and tactical analysis

The historical record favors the hosts, with Stuttgart winning four of the last six encounters between the two sides, including a 1-0 victory in their most recent meeting in February 2026. Statistically, matches between these rivals tend to be productive, averaging 3.13 goals per game. Stuttgart’s superior possession (56.9%) and attacking volume (2.12 goals per match) suggest they will control the rhythm, while Freiburg will rely on set-pieces and defensive organization to stay in the contest. The probability of a Stuttgart victory is currently estimated at 55.1%, with a draw at 22.1% and a Freiburg win at 22.8%.

Final prediction and betting tips

Given Stuttgart’s dominant home form and their psychological edge as defending champions, a home win appears the most likely outcome. Freiburg’s fatigue and poor away record could be their undoing in a high-intensity environment like the MHPArena. A 2-0 or 2-1 victory for Stuttgart is the favored scoreline among analysts. For bettors, taking Stuttgart to win at odds of 1.60 represents solid value. Additionally, Over 2.5 goals is a statistically sound choice at 58% probability, considering both teams' recent scoring records in the competition.