Is Iran in or out of World Cup 2026? Iraq's playoff status?

The 2026 FIFA men's World Cup in the United States, Mexico and Canada is due to start in less than three months, but the conflict in Iran and neighboring countries, following President Donald Trump's announcement on March 1 of "major combat operations" against the Iranian regime, has led to growing uncertainty over the participation of teams from that region.

The conflict has already seen longtime Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed in airstrikes in Tehran, as well as missile and drone attacks in response from Iran, targeting Israel, regional U.S. bases and Gulf nations. And while Iran's involvement at the World Cup has been in doubt since the outbreak of hostilities -- they're scheduled in Group G, with games against Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand -- the instability in the Gulf has now placed a question mark over Iraq's ability to take part in this month's intercontinental playoffs in Mexico.

So what is happening, and how -- and when -- will there be any clarity over which teams will take part in the World Cup?

Within 24 hours of the first missile strikes on Iran, a senior official from the Islamic Republic of Iran Football Federation (FFIRI) said that there was little optimism that the team, which was the first non-host to qualify for this year's World Cup, would play in the tournament.

"What is certain is that after this attack, we cannot be expected to look forward to the World Cup with hope," said FFIRI official Mehdi Taj, who is also a vice president of the Asian Football Confederation.

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FIFA's initial response was that it would "monitor" the situation, and sources told ESPN that there was confidence that the situation would resolve itself ahead of the World Cup, which begins when Mexico face South Africa in Mexico City on June 11. Although the conflict is continuing in the Persian Gulf, FIFA president Gianni Infantino delivered a positive update on Wednesday, saying after a meeting with President Trump that Iran would be "welcome" at the tournament in the U.S., where they are due to play two games in Los Angeles and one in Seattle.

"During the discussions, President Trump reiterated that the Iranian team is, of course, welcome to compete in the tournament in the United States," Infantino said.

However, Iran's sports minister, Ahmad Donyamali, said shortly after Infantino's comments that the national team would not take part in the World Cup. "Considering that this corrupt ⁠regime has ⁠assassinated our leader, under no circumstances ⁠can we ⁠participate in ⁠the World Cup," Donyamali said.

No. This is clearly a fast-moving situation and with FFIRI controlled by the Iranian government, the decision on whether Iran participate in the World Cup will ultimately be down to political figures in the country.