7M - Will Arsenal's End-of-Season Form Haunt Them Again?

The intensity in the title battle was always destined to arrive for Arsenal, and perhaps following the 1-1 stalemate at Brentford is where the stakes heighten further for Mikel Arteta's outfit.

It should be emphasised that they occupy the most favourable position of any team pursuing the crown, sitting four points clear at the Premier League summit and having suffered merely three defeats throughout the campaign. Yet with Pep Guardiola's Manchester City in pursuit, that advantage does not feel particularly substantial.

Part of that perception stems from the reality that had Arsenal overcome the Bees, they would have moved six points clear and possessed the opportunity to extend that cushion to nine by beating Wolves next Wednesday—a fixture that takes place before Manchester City's subsequent outing.

Another consideration is that Manchester City have produced extraordinary winning sequences to overhaul deficits in previous campaigns, while the Gunners have finished runners-up for three consecutive seasons.

With 12 matches remaining, historical trends do not favour Arsenal regarding their closing-stage performances.

Across the past five campaigns, Arsenal have managed to claim victory in 10 of their final 12 Premier League fixtures on only one occasion.

Amid the surrounding discourse regarding Arsenal and their track record under Arteta when pursuing silverware, the Gunners manager was questioned about whether he must ensure his charges avoid panic and maintain concentration on their objectives.

"That's precisely what we must do," he stated. "We will be determined and prepare to triumph in every fixture, and the sole aspect we can control is focusing on that while elevating our standards collectively and individually to outperform the opposition each week.

"These are simply the tasks we must accomplish—that remains the priority."

Prior to Manchester City's dramatic late victory against Liverpool on Sunday, it appeared Arsenal would hold a nine-point buffer.

However, following Erling Haaland's decisive spot-kick that secured maximum points and their midweek success over Fulham, the deficit narrowed to three points and the onus returned to the Gunners.

When asked whether featuring after City introduces fresh strain to his squad, Arteta replied: "I disagree; we have performed well after them several times this season and claimed victories."

Of the 17 occasions Arsenal have opened the scoring in Premier League encounters this term, the draw at Brentford represents merely the second instance they have failed to secure three points—alongside their January setback against Manchester United.

Midfielder Declan Rice articulated it perfectly: "This season is a rollercoaster.

"We cannot be naive enough to believe this will be straightforward. We face elite opponents week after week. We must continue striving and maintaining faith in ourselves, managing what we can manage.

"We need to disregard external chatter. We have accomplished that effectively. People will discuss the title race and Arsenal extensively, but we possess a remarkably composed group."

The Gunners entered this contest without centre-back William Saliba, who was absent due to illness.

Saliba constitutes a vital component of this Arsenal setup, and his central defensive partnership with Gabriel Magalhaes largely explains why they have shipped merely 18 league goals this season.

Since the commencement of 2022-23, Arsenal register a 68.6% win rate and average 2.3 points per game when Saliba features in the Premier League (W83 D24 L14), compared to a 42.1% win rate and 1.6 points per game on average without him (W8 D7 L4).

The Gunners also miss Kai Havertz, who sustained a muscular complaint shortly after returning from a prolonged knee issue last month.

Alongside those two alterations, Arteta introduced Viktor Gyokeres and Piero Hincapie into the starting lineup at Brentford.

Yet Arsenal have secured victory in only two of their preceding seven Premier League outings when making four or more changes to the starting XI from the previous fixture (D4 L1).

Former Arsenal defender Martin Keown remarked on TNT Sports: "Supporters were calling out as I departed the pitch, 'Manchester City are pursuing you', but ultimately Arsenal sit four points clear.

"You absorb setbacks and rise again. Let us identify the competitors and determine who emerges victorious. They could have established a significant statement by winning this fixture, but that never appeared probable."

In two of their three runner-up finishes during recent campaigns, Arsenal have concluded behind Manchester City—explaining why discussions surrounding this title pursuit carry such emotional weight for supporters.

"What Manchester City possess is the expertise and recent pedigree," Peter Crouch added on TNT.

"That can generate anxious tension throughout the stadium, particularly approaching the concluding phase of the season.

"Having a side like Manchester City and Pep trailing you inevitably prompts glances over your shoulder. Yet you would undoubtedly prefer to occupy Arsenal's position."

Crouch believes Arsenal may never encounter a more favourable opportunity to claim championship glory.

"Manchester City do not resemble the Manchester City of previous eras, Liverpool differ, Manchester United have declined from former heights, and Chelsea similarly," he observed. "Quality deficiency exists among the upper echelons [of the division]. Standards have been elevated across recent campaigns.

"Presently represents a genuine opening for Arsenal. Should they fail to cross the finish line, additional scrutiny must follow."