7M - Aston Villa vs Red Bull Salzburg: Europa League Preview, Squad Updates, and Match Forecast

Having already secured direct passage to the Europa League round of 16, Aston Villa prepare to conclude their League Phase campaign against playoff-chasing Red Bull Salzburg at Villa Park this Thursday evening. While Unai Emery’s side sits second in the 36-team table—guaranteeing a top-eight finish—Thomas Letsch’s Salzburg occupy 28th place but retain a narrow path into the top 24 with a victory and favorable concurrent results. 

Form and Context 
Villa remain firmly embedded in the Premier League title race after a commanding 2-0 away win at Newcastle United on Sunday, closing the gap to leaders Arsenal to four points following the Gunners’ 3-2 home defeat to Manchester United. Just three days earlier, Emery marked his 100th Europa League match as a manager with a vital 1-0 triumph at Fenerbahce, sealing knockout-stage qualification with a game to spare. 

Currently level on points with Lyon at the summit of the League Phase standings, Villa have won six of seven fixtures (against Fenerbahce, Basel, Young Boys, Maccabi Tel-Aviv, Feyenoord, and Bologna), with their sole loss coming away to Go Ahead Eagles on matchday three. Buoyed by an impressive home record—19 wins in their last 22 matches across all competitions (D1 L2)—Villa target a seventh consecutive European victory at Villa Park. Their most recent domestic home fixture, however, ended in a 1-0 loss to Everton on January 18. 

Historically, Villa have never faced Salzburg. Their only prior encounters with Austrian opposition occurred in Europa League qualifying ties against Rapid Vienna between 2008 and 2009, yielding one win, one draw, and two losses. 

Salzburg, eliminated in the Champions League group stage across the last three seasons, face renewed risk of early European exit. A 3-1 home win over Basel last week revitalized their playoff hopes—their second League Phase victory alongside a 2-0 home result against Go Ahead Eagles (the side that defeated Villa). Losses have come against Porto, Lyon, Ferencvaros, Bologna, and Freiburg. Sitting two points behind Celtic (24th place), Salzburg require maximum points and favorable outcomes elsewhere to advance; anything less means elimination. 

Domestically, the 17-time Austrian Bundesliga leaders have been inactive since December 14 due to the winter break. Their next fixture is an Austrian Cup quarter-final versus Wolfsberger on Sunday. Salzburg also carry an unbroken winless record against English clubs in European competition (D2 L6), with draws coming against Blackburn Rovers (2006–07 UEFA Cup) and Chelsea (2022–23 Champions League). 

Squad Availability and Projected Lineups 
Aston Villa: Youri Tielemans is sidelined long-term with an ankle injury sustained versus Newcastle. Boubacar Kamara and John McGinn remain out with knee issues; Ross Barkley’s fitness will be assessed pre-match. With progression secured, Emery is expected to rotate. Marco Bizot may start in goal ahead of Emiliano Martinez. Andres Garcia, Victor Lindelöf, Tyrone Mings, and Lucas Digne could form the defensive line. Lamare Bogarde is set to replace Tielemans in midfield alongside Amadou Onana and/or 18-year-old George Hemmings. Evann Guessand may lead the attack, supported by Jadon Sancho (scorer vs. Fenerbahce) and Leon Bailey. 

Red Bull Salzburg: Midfielder Takumu Kawamura and centre-back John Mellber continue recovery from long-term knee injuries. Kerim Alajbegovic, who scored twice versus Basel, is expected to start wide alongside Edmund Baidoo and top scorer Petar Ratkov (12 goals across competitions). Mads Bidstrup joins Sota Kitano and Soumaila Diabate in midfield. Teenagers Joane Gadou and Jannik Schuster are likely to partner centrally in defense. 

Predicted Aston Villa XI: 
Bizot; Garcia, Lindelöf, Mings, Digne; Bogarde, Onana, Hemmings; Sancho, Guessand, Bailey 
Predicted Red Bull Salzburg XI: 
Schlager; Trummer, Gadou, Schuster, Kratzig; Kitano, Diabate, Bidstrup; Baidoo, Ratkov, Alajbegovic 

Match Forecast  Prediction: Aston Villa 3–1 Red Bull Salzburg 
Salzburg must adopt an assertive approach in this must-win scenario, potentially capitalizing on a rotated Villa side. Nevertheless, Emery’s squad—driven to finish the League Phase on a high before supportive home fans—possesses sufficient depth and quality to secure victory. Even with strategic squad rotation, Villa’s momentum, home advantage, and European consistency position them to claim all three points and close the group stage campaign emphatically.