Preview: Liverpool vs Qarabag FK - prediction, team news, lineups

[(Liverpool F.C.) Strength]:
1. Liverpool won their last Champions League match 3-0 against Marseille. A victory in this match will secure them a top-8 position and direct qualification to the knockout stage, so they will undoubtedly not let this opportunity slip away, and their determination is unquestionable.
2. Virgil van Dijk scored a goal in the last match. Since joining Liverpool, he has scored 22 goals in Premier League matches, tying with Sami Hyypia for the most Premier League goals by a Liverpool defender. In this season's Champions League, his aerial duel success rate is as high as 86%, winning 24 out of 28 duels, making him the player with the highest success rate among those who have participated in 15 or more aerial duels.
3. Liverpool have scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches and have already netted 14 goals in this Champions League campaign, averaging 2 goals per game, showcasing commendable overall attacking performance.
4. Liverpool have conceded only 3 goals in their last 5 home matches, demonstrating solid defensive performances at home, and their overall defensive efforts deserve recognition.
5. Liverpool have remained unbeaten in their last 5 home matches with 3 wins and 2 draws, achieving a win rate of 60%, which reflects their home advantage.

[(Liverpool F.C.) Weakness]:
1. In the last 8 Premier League matches where Mohamed Salah started, Liverpool lost 7 of them, making him the first Liverpool player since Dirk Kuijt in 2012 to experience such a situation.
2. Liverpool suffered a 2-3 upset loss to AFC Bournemouth in their last Premier League match, ending their 13-game unbeaten streak across all competitions, which has somewhat dampened their morale.
3. So far this season, Liverpool have lost 10 out of 34 official matches, raising concerns about their form. Last season, the Reds played 56 matches and lost only 9.
4. Liverpool have failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 8 home matches, indicating a low win rate against the spread in recent home games and an overall poor trend.

[(Qarabag) Strength]:
1. Qarabag have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the first 7 rounds of the Champions League. A win in the final round will give them the initiative to secure a spot in the knockout playoff, so they will also not take this match lightly.
2. Qarabag forward Camilo Duran has scored in the last 2 Champions League matches and is expected to start again in this match.
3. Qarabag have scored 14 goals in their last 5 matches, showcasing excellent recent attacking form with an average of nearly 3 goals per game and high scoring efficiency.

[(Qarabag) Neutral]:
1. Qarabag have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 away matches, with a win rate of 40%, reflecting average away performance.
2. The two teams have never faced each other before, so this match will be a first encounter for both sides.
3. Qarabag have seen 5 out of their last 6 official matches end with OVER, reflecting an open style of play.

[(Qarabag) Weakness]:
1. Qarabag lost 0-2 to Kapaz PFK in their last match, abruptly ending their 5-game winning streak across all competitions, which has dealt a significant blow to their morale.
2. Qarabag have conceded 8 goals in their last 5 away matches, indicating some defensive vulnerabilities in their away performances that need to be addressed and improved.

[Tips]:
Liverpool can secure a direct spot in the Champions League knockout stage with a win in this match, and they are motivated to win. Although their 13-game unbeaten streak in the Premier League was ended by an upset loss, their attacking performance remains impressive, scoring 10 goals in the last 5 matches and averaging 2 goals per game in the Champions League. At home, they have remained unbeaten in the last 5 matches with 3 wins and 2 draws, conceding only 3 goals, showcasing solid defensive performances and fully leveraging their home advantage. Qarabag, on the other hand, can secure the initiative for the Champions League knockout playoff with a win, and their motivation is equally strong. They have scored 14 goals in the last 5 matches, demonstrating explosive attacking firepower. However, their recent loss ended a 5-game winning streak, dampening their morale. Their away form is a clear weakness, conceding 8 goals in the last 5 away matches, indicating defensive vulnerabilities, and their away win rate is only 40%, reflecting average away performance. This is the first meeting between the two teams, so there is no psychological baggage. Liverpool, with home field advantage and far superior Champions League strength, combined with their overall offensive and defensive performance and home advantage, are recommended to secure a big win.

[Recommended]:
Liverpool F.C. (-2.5)