Utrecht vs Nottingham Forest Prediction

🔊 Will Nottingham Forest's unbeaten run in the Europa League continue? It began with Sean Dyche's appointment as manager. In the 6th round of the group stage, the English side will travel to face Utrecht at the Galgenwaard Stadium. The Dutch team have yet to secure a victory in Europe's second-tier competition, and their recent form across all competitions is far from inspiring, with four matches without a win. Which streak is more likely to extend on Thursday? Our editorial team will evaluate the odds and offer an insightful prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 The teams have not faced each other before.

Utrecht Team Overview

In the Eredivisie, Ron Jans' team is performing below expectations but remains in the European competition zone. Currently sitting seventh, they are in the qualifying spot for the Conference League. However, they are four points shy of last year's fourth-place finish. The issue is that Utrecht have been dropping points too frequently lately, although they remain unbeaten in their last five matches. Nonetheless, their last three games have ended in draws. These results are not a complete failure, considering that 2 out of those 3 opponents, Go Ahead Eagles and Twente, are top ten teams in the league.

In contrast, Utrecht's Europa League campaign has been notably less successful: they stand 32nd out of 36 teams and share the second-worst scoring record with Rangers (two goals). Their sole point came from a draw against Porto (1-1). That draw can be considered an achievement, as the Dutch side played with ten men from the 66th minute. This contrasts with their away match against Real Betis in the fifth round (1-2), where the "Verdiblancos" dominated possession (65% to 35%) and were more effective in attack (18 shots with an xG of 1.19 compared to 6 shots with an xG of 0.63).

Nottingham Forest Team Overview

The "Forest" struggled to maintain their form over three Premier League matches in a week. In their last three outings, Nottingham Forest suffered two defeats but managed a win against a struggling Wolverhampton side at the bottom of the table (1-0). The "Red and Whites" are only two points clear of the relegation zone. Their drop to the 17th spot was largely due to a heavy defeat away to Everton in the 15th round of the Premier League (0-3). Although the visitors maintained 58% possession, their attacks were less frequent and effective, with just 7 shots valued at 0.61 xG compared to 11 shots with 1.23 xG for the opposition.

In the Europa League, Nottingham's results have been relatively stable. Since Sean Dyche took over, the "Forest" remain unbeaten in three rounds, securing one draw and two victories. Their latest success came with a commanding victory over Malmo at the City Ground (3-0). The hosts dominated possession (65% to 35%) and barely allowed the Swedes any chances, conceding just one shot worth 0.03 xG.

Latest news

Utrecht

🎙 Utrecht's head coach shared his thoughts after the draw with Twente in the 15th round of the Eredivisie. "Only one team deserved to win, and that was us. We were full of energy before the break, but looked sluggish in the second half. We really hope to shake off this bitter taste in the next round," said Ron Jans.

❌ In the last round of the Eredivisie, David Min was sidelined due to injury. Even earlier, Davy van den Berg was ruled out. However, the biggest loss was the team's top scorer, Victor Jensen, who recently recovered from a muscle injury. Despite scoring against Twente, the head coach substituted the forward in the 61st minute and did not include him in the squad for the game against Betis. It’s possible that a recurrence of an old injury is to blame.

Nottingham Forest

📝 In the upcoming winter transfer window, Nottingham Forest might strengthen their squad with a former teammate of winger Dan Ndoye. The English side have shown interest in Bologna forward Santiago Castro. This season in Serie A, the Argentine has contributed five goal involvements in 12 matches (4 goals and 1 assist). The Italian club values their young talent at £34-44 million.

❌ Expectations for the quick return from injury of Douglas Luiz and Taiwo Awoniyi have not been met. Additionally, Ryan Yates, Dylan Bakwa, Ola Aina, Oleksandr Zinchenko, and Chris Wood are sidelined. Key defender Murillo missed the last three matches due to illness but might be fit by Thursday. Summer signings Cunha and Omari Hutchinson were not registered for the Europa League.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by Irfan Peljto from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Over his last 10 matches across all competitions, he has averaged five yellow cards per game. Both teams' Europa League matches are known for their intense battles, often resulting in deserved bookings. Utrecht's games have seen an average of 4.2 cautions over five rounds, while Nottingham's have averaged 4. Considering Irfan Peljto's refereeing style, we anticipate that at Galgenwaard Stadium, the total yellow cards will exceed 3.5.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Both teams have been struggling with their form lately. Utrecht have failed to win in their last four matches, scoring no more than one goal in each. Nottingham managed just one goal against a struggling Wolverhampton in three Premier League rounds this week. Looking at a broader timeframe, the total goals in 4 out of 6 of Nottingham's away games did not exceed 2.5, as was the case in 4 out of 6 of Utrecht's home fixtures. Given these circumstances, the most reasonable bet seems to be on total goals under 2.5.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Utrecht are not shy about playing a counter-attacking game against higher-ranked opponents. In 3 out of their last 4 Eredivisie rounds, they faced teams placed between 4th and 10th in the table, including Betis in the Europa League. Their average possession in those matches was just 36%. Nevertheless, their 4-3-3 formation allows Ron Jans' side to execute effective counterattacks, earning a fair number of set-pieces in front of the opposition's goal. They are particularly strong at home, averaging 5.27 corners over 15 Eredivisie rounds. We expect that on Thursday, Utrecht's total corners will be over 4.5.

Despite Utrecht's questionable form, Ron Jans' side doesn't go down without a fight. In 10 of their last 11 matches, the Dutch team has seen both sides score. Nottingham seem to have moved away from Sean Dyche's initial setup, where defense was their main focus. Over their last three games, the Forest have conceded six goals, only managing a clean sheet against bottom-placed Wolverhampton in the Premier League. Given these circumstances, a high-scoring draw at 1-1 seems a fair outcome. Our main betting suggestion is to go with both teams to score (yes).