Qarabag vs Ajax Prediction

🔊 Can Qarabag pull off another Champions League upset by defeating a high-profile opponent? Although a win over a struggling Ajax might be the least surprising result for the "Steeds" compared to their other achievements. The match will take place in Baku at the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium. Under Gurban Gurbanov, the team has yet to lose at home in this European campaign. Can Ajax regroup and break this streak to secure their first points? We'll evaluate the odds for both sides in our editorial prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 These teams have already faced each other. It happened quite recently during the main stage of last year's Europa League. At the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, the hosts were down to ten men as early as the 15th minute. For the remainder of the match, Ajax secured a commanding 3-0 victory.

Qarabag Team Overview

Qarabag maintain their domestic form even while competing in the Champions League. Head coach Gurban Gurbanov expertly rotates the squad, ensuring that frequent long trips to face European football's elite do not impact their league results. The "Horsemen" currently sit at the top of the league, holding a three-point lead over second place. Their most recent match in the Azerbaijani Premier League was a challenging encounter. The team from Baku visited Zira, their closest rival. During the match, the visitors had to come from behind but managed to secure a point with a 1-1 draw.

After a strong start in the Champions League, Qarabag's results have dipped. They have now gone three consecutive matches without a win. Away fixtures against Athletic Bilbao and Napoli ended in clear defeats (1-3; 0-2). However, on home turf, the "Horsemen" managed to snatch a point from Chelsea (2-2), with the visitors having to fight back during the game. Over the course of 90 minutes, the hosts even surpassed the Londoners in expected goals (1.52 to 1.5).

Ajax Amsterdam Team Overview

The "Sons of God" have finally found their way back to winning form following a change in head coach. Under Fred Grim's leadership, Ajax initially suffered defeats in both the Champions League and the Eredivisie. However, they have now secured back-to-back victories in the league, achieving a perfect record in the last two rounds. The level of opposition ranged from 6th to 11th place. They defeated Groningen (2-0) and Fortuna (3-1) with the same goal difference. These results haven't impacted their position on the table, as Ajax remain in fourth place.

Ajax's standings in the Champions League remain unchanged as well. However, things look grim for the Dutch side, as they sit at the bottom with zero points. Additionally, they have been the least effective in front of goal, scoring just once in five matches. In their latest home fixture, they fell to Benfica, who were second from the bottom (0-2). Although the hosts dominated possession (62% to 38%), the Portuguese side took more shots (11 to 7) and capitalized on their chances more effectively (0.92 xG compared to 0.69 xG).

Latest news

Qarabag

🎙 Qarabag's head coach commented on their defeat to Napoli in the 5th round of the Champions League. “I'm pleased with our performance. Despite the loss, the players didn't back down and fought until the end, attacking and showing bold play. We faced a very high-quality team. You could say everything went as expected. Except for before the first goal, when we made a substitution and restructured our defense, we lost our grip on the game for about 8-10 minutes. Initially, we played with one system, and after the forced substitution, there was some misunderstanding during those minutes. That's when the outcome of the match was decided. But we need to keep going in this direction. As I've said before, we have to enjoy every match in this tournament and play confidently to continue growing,” noted Gurban Gurbanov.

❌ Qarabag face minimal losses ahead of their match against Ajax. Midfielder Kady Borges suffered a fibula fracture in the 4th round of the Champions League against Chelsea. The Brazilian is expected to return in 8-10 weeks.

Ajax Amsterdam

🎙 Ajax's interim head coach Fred Grim shared his thoughts on his team's performance against Benfica in the fifth round of the Champions League: “I saw a team out there. They supported each other and stuck to the game plan. I definitely see connections for future matches. I think we had more chances than Benfica. As for the first goal conceded from a corner, their player was offside. Unfortunately, the referees missed it. I appreciated that the fans stayed with us. These are tough times for Ajax supporters. But now I see that we can play better.”

❌ Ajax's main concern for the match against Qarabag could be the potential absence of their top scorer Wout Weghorst. The forward was forced off in the last Eredivisie round, and his condition is currently being assessed by the medical staff. Defender Josip Sutalo's participation is also in doubt after missing the last two matches due to health issues. Steven Berghuis and James McConnell are confirmed absentees and will not take the field.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by the main referee Rade Obrenovic from Slovenia. Over his last 10 matches across all competitions, he averages four yellow cards per game. Neither team has been particularly aggressive in this season's Champions League. Ajax's games have seen slightly more warnings: 3.4 compared to Qarabag's 2.6 over five rounds. The Azerbaijani side, despite their modest standing, play an attractive, combinational style of football. The "Riders" are not known for relying on brute force to secure results. Considering Rade Obrenovic's refereeing style, we anticipate that the total yellow cards will be under 4.5.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Qarabag are strong at home. At the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, the "Riders" are unbeaten in their last 10 matches. Even European giants like Chelsea couldn't break this streak in the Champions League. Moreover, in their last five matches, including against the Londoners, the Azerbaijani side has scored at least two goals. Ajax currently has the leakiest defense in this edition of the main European competition, conceding 16 goals (an average of 3.2 per five rounds). Our prediction: Qarabag will score over 1.5 goals.

🚩 Corner Prediction

In Fred Grim's first two matches in charge of Ajax, he employed a 4-2-3-1 formation, which didn't yield results. However, switching to a 4-3-3 brought victories and territorial dominance in most games. Even in their Champions League defeat against Benfica, the "Sons of the Gods" held 62% possession. Their dominant style of play results in a high number of set pieces near the opposition's goal. Over their last five matches, Ajax have averaged six corners per game, slightly lower in the Eredivisie at 5.56. The corner line for the visitors in the upcoming match is surprisingly low. We suggest taking advantage of this and betting on Ajax to have over 3.5 corners.

Ajax's recent performances give the impression that the Amsterdam side is simply not interested in the Champions League this season. The "Sons of the Gods" remain the only team yet to earn a single point in the group stage, and they also have the worst goal-scoring record with just one goal to their name. Qarabag have arguably been the biggest surprise of this year's Champions League, showing resilience even against Europe's elite clubs. The challenging trip to Baku and the Azerbaijani climate certainly work in the hosts' favor. Neither Chelsea nor Copenhagen managed to defeat Gurban Gurbanov's team, and overall, the Baku side are unbeaten in their last ten matches at the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium. A victory against Ajax, given the Dutch side's current form, wouldn't be considered shocking. Therefore, we are backing a Qarabag win. Predicted scoreline: 2-1.