Bournemouth vs Chelsea Prediction

🔊 Will Bournemouth's winless streak come to an end against Chelsea? In the 15th round of the Premier League, the visitors from London head to the Vitality Stadium, eager to bounce back from their disappointing trip to Leeds. Meanwhile, the Cherries' slump has been much longer, with Andoni Iraola's squad managing just one point from their last five games. Will Enzo Maresca take advantage of their current form and continue experimenting with his lineup ahead of the upcoming Champions League? Our editorial team provides insights and predictions on these and other questions.

Head-to-Head

📊 Bournemouth have been unable to defeat Chelsea in the Premier League for over five years. Their last victory came back in 2019 during their first stint in the English top flight. Since then, the teams have faced off seven times, with the Blues claiming four victories. The other three encounters ended in draws. In five of their last eight meetings, the total goals scored did not exceed 3.5.

Bournemouth Team Overview

One of the most dramatic declines in the Premier League standings has been experienced by Bournemouth. In just five matchdays, Andoni Iraola's side have plummeted from second to 14th place. In many of those encounters, the Cherries didn't appear inferior to their opponents, consistently posting higher expected goals (xG) in 3 out of 5 matches and dominating territorially in 4 out of 5 games. However, it seems the players' self-belief took a hit in the latest round of the league.

During midweek action, Bournemouth hosted Everton at the Vitality Stadium. It was here that the team's crisis became most evident. Despite having more possession (55% to 45%), the Cherries were at a loss for ideas on how to capitalize on it. The Toffees took significantly more shots on goal (13 to 5), and their expected goals tally was more than three times that of the hosts (1.82 to 0.56). Thus, Everton's narrow 1-0 victory was a fortunate outcome for Bournemouth under the circumstances.

Chelsea Team Overview

As quickly as the "Pensioners" were added to the list of title contenders following an impressive draw against Arsenal, achieved with ten men (1-1), they were just as swiftly removed after a debacle in Leeds (1-3). Let's break it down. In the 13th round of the Premier League, Chelsea hosted their London rivals at Stamford Bridge. The visitors failed to impose their game even after the Blues were reduced to ten men before halftime. In the second half, the hosts were the first to score from a set piece and generally attacked well throughout the match (1.31 xG against 1.25 xG).

Chelsea's starting lineup against Leeds saw four changes compared to the previous round. Additionally, key midfielder Moisés Caicedo missed the match against the "Peacocks" due to suspension. Problems at Elland Road began early on. The hosts were physically stronger and more determined, opening the scoring from a corner in the 6th minute and extending their lead with a long-range strike just before halftime. The visitors pulled one back after the break but consistently ran into dangerous counterattacks from the Whites, one of which sealed the final score (1-3).

Latest news

Bournemouth

🎙 Bournemouth's head coach shared his thoughts on his team's performance against Everton. "In a game where everything feels like it's in slow motion, we're not at our best. We prefer playing in different scenarios, and we're not quite good enough to execute the one we need. Especially for me, because we didn't take risks with the ball: either we were too cautious or we didn't progress enough with it," said Andoni Iraola.

❌ Bournemouth are set to welcome back three players who have served their suspensions: Marcos Senesi, David Brooks, and Lewis Cook. However, Tyler Adams has picked up a new suspension and will miss the match against Chelsea due to an accumulation of yellow cards. The team's injury list is not empty either, with Ben Doak and Ryan Christie sidelined due to various knee issues.

Chelsea

🎙 Chelsea's head coach reflected on their defeat to Leeds in the latest Premier League round. "They were better than us in every aspect and deserved the win. There's nothing we can take from this match for the future. We can only try to understand what we did wrong and then start over. We played very well against Arsenal and Barcelona, but that doesn't mean we'll always perform the same way, as we need to adapt to situations and rotate the squad. The level of play won't always be consistent. Of course, after matches like the previous two, you expect a stronger performance, but that's not always possible. Today, no player was at their best. I hope it was just an off day. We lost every battle," stated Enzo Maresca.

❌ Moises Caicedo will not return for the match against Bournemouth, as he is serving a suspension following a red card. Injured players Dário Essugo, Levi Colwill, and Romeo Lavia are also not expected to feature.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by the chief referee Michael Oliver. His average number of yellow cards in the last 10 Premier League matches is 2.7. However, this upcoming game might demand more from the referee. Head-to-head clashes between these teams are known for their intensity: in the last five encounters, an average of 6.6 yellow cards were handed out between them. Moreover, in six consecutive matches involving Bournemouth, the total cautions did not fall below 3.5. We anticipate this trend to continue. Considering Michael Oliver's composed style of officiating, a bet on total yellow cards under 4.5 seems reasonable.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Bournemouth remain a formidable force at the Vitality Stadium, despite their lackluster performance against Everton. That match was the first in their last seven Premier League outings where the Cherries recorded less than one expected goal. In 7 out of their previous 9 matches, Andoni Iraola's side found the back of the net. Chelsea's young and potentially not fully physically matured squad may face challenges against another team that advocates physical football. The youthful exuberance should be enough for the Blues to score, but it's unlikely they will keep a clean sheet. Under these circumstances, a bet on both teams to score (yes) could be insightful.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Enzo Maresca's style allows for control over the game's flow in most cases. Even the formidable Barcelona succumbed to Chelsea's pressure, unable to dominate possession. The Blues' primary 4-2-3-1 formation facilitates situational shifts between positional attacks and counter-attacks. The reactive flanks play a crucial role here, not only capable of breaking down defenses with combinations but also smartly drawing set-pieces. Chelsea's average corners per game stand at 6.07 over 14 rounds (top-2 in the Premier League). A bet on Chelsea total corners over 4.5 appears quite viable.

The lackluster performances from both teams in the last round might be misleading, but it's important to note they were not at full strength. Bournemouth had several players serving suspensions, while Chelsea's manager is known for extensive squad rotation. It's worth remembering that the Blues face a challenging midweek trip to Atalanta in the Champions League, so further lineup experiments wouldn't be surprising. Given these circumstances, a positive result for the Cherries is quite possible, especially on home turf. We believe Bournemouth won't lose the upcoming match, with a likely outcome being a 1-1 draw.