Newcastle vs Burnley Prediction

🔊 Will Newcastle's unbeaten run continue against Burnley in the 15th round of the Premier League? Currently, the Magpies are undefeated in three consecutive matches—only the second time they've achieved this in the current campaign. Meanwhile, the Clarets, with five straight losses, are becoming more entrenched at the bottom of the table. Which streak will extend on Saturday at St. James' Park? We'll assess both teams' chances in our editorial prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 The last time Burnley defeated Newcastle was in the English League Cup in 2021. The match saw no goals in regular time, and the outcome was decided by a penalty shootout. All subsequent encounters took place in the Premier League and ended with victories for the Magpies. There have been four such matches in total. Among these, only one resulted in a blowout, courtesy of Newcastle. The total goals in the other matches did not exceed 3.5.

Newcastle United Team Overview

Eddie Howe's team continues to struggle with consistency across all competitions they're involved in. In the Premier League, the Magpies haven't climbed higher than 10th place this season and are currently sitting in 12th. Their Champions League campaign is slightly more promising, holding the 11th position out of 36 teams. However, convincing victories over Benfica (3-0) and Athletic Bilbao (2-0) were followed by a defeat to Marseille (1-2).

Newcastle were moments away from securing their third consecutive Premier League victory. In the 14th round, the Magpies hosted Tottenham. The main drama unfolded towards the end of the match: between the 71st and 86th minutes, the hosts gained a narrow 2-1 lead. However, Spurs managed to salvage a draw in stoppage time, leaving St James' Park with a hard-fought point.

Burnley Team Overview

Among all the former Championship sides, Burnley are closest to returning to the English second tier. The Clarets found themselves at the bottom of the Premier League table three rounds ago. While Scott Parker's team had been hovering around the relegation zone, their defeat in the 14th round widened the gap to the safe 17th place to four points.

In the previous Premier League round, Burnley hosted Crystal Palace. The hosts looked decent at Turf Moor, enjoying more possession (58% to 42%) and launching more threatening attacks (11 shots with 0.93 xG compared to 3 shots with 0.62 xG). However, it was the visitors who struck first, and luck was not on the Clarets' side. For instance, Jacob Bruun Larsen hit the crossbar with a powerful shot from inside the opponent's box. Misfortune and poor finishing from Scott Parker's squad prevented them from securing even a draw (0-1).

Latest news

Newcastle United

🎙 Newcastle defender Fabian Schär shared his thoughts on losing his spot in the starting lineup. "Sitting on the bench is quite tough, to be honest. I think I was doing well at the start of the season. Then I suffered a concussion and missed three games. I didn't do anything wrong or play poorly, but getting back into the team is very challenging. It's a new situation for me, something I haven't faced in the last four years. I just want to get out on the field and do what I've been trying to do for the past seven years, and give my all to the game. I'm not naive; we have a lot of good players in the team, and we've brought in young talents. But as long as I'm fit, I know I can help the team. I can still be valuable to the team," explained the Swiss player.

❌ Newcastle's most significant loss is their first-choice goalkeeper Nick Pope. His absence was most felt in the match against Tottenham: his replacement, Aaron Ramsdale, struggled with the responsibility and received the lowest rating among all players. Besides Pope, Kieran Trippier, William Osula, Sven Botman, and Yoane Wissa are also out of the squad.

Burnley

🎙 Burnley's head coach commented on the defeat to Crystal Palace in the 14th round of the Premier League. "Yes, in terms of the result, it was a poor match. However, overall, when we consider how we approached creating this game, I believe we did everything necessary. I see tension and a weight on the shoulders of our young squad. It's a group of players who might be facing challenges and setbacks for the first time. Now I understand that at this moment, I am weak in my position because we didn't win the game and didn't get what we needed," shared Scott Parker.

❌ Regulars of the Premier League have something to learn from Burnley. The Clarets are undergoing a test by the English elite with almost no losses in their squad. Currently, the team's injury list remains unchanged compared to the start of the season: Jordan Beyer, Zeki Amdouni, and Connor Roberts.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by the head referee Stuart Attwell. His average number of yellow cards over the last 20 Premier League matches stands at 4.4. However, the upcoming opponents are not known for excessive roughness in the English league. In Newcastle's last five matches, there was an average of 2.6 cautions, while Burnley averaged 2.8. Both in the Premier League and the Championship, the "Clarets" have not been overly aggressive. For instance, they have not received more than two yellow cards in eight consecutive games. We believe that the difference in class between the teams, combined with their cautious play, will result in a total of fewer than 3.5 yellow cards.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Newcastle's inconsistency this season is also reflected in their defensive statistics. The "Magpies" have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last seven Premier League matches. Burnley, despite a string of setbacks, show resilience, especially on the road. For example, the "Clarets" have scored at least once in six consecutive league matches. Eddie Howe is still struggling to find the optimal central defensive pairing, which has caused confusion for former key center-back Fabian Schär. Therefore, it is quite likely that Burnley will score a goal.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Scott Parker is not one to have his team sit back and defend deeply. All his tactical setups are based on a four-man defense, with changes occurring only in the two forward lines. Burnley may not dominate possession, but they strive to play attractive combination football. Interestingly, the "Clarets" sometimes play even more boldly away from home than at Turf Moor. For instance, their average number of corners on the road is higher than at home: 3.57 compared to 2.14 over seven matches. The away corner count for the "Clarets" is criminally low not to take advantage of it. Our prediction: Burnley's total corners over 2.5.

The favorite for the upcoming clash is clear in the bookmakers' eyes, with Newcastle's odds more than seven times those for Burnley. But is this significant difference justified? Our answer leans towards yes. Firstly, the match takes place at St James' Park, where the Magpies haven't lost since late September. Burnley last tasted Premier League success here back in 2019. Secondly, Scott Parker's side struggles on the road, securing just one win over bottom-placed Wolverhampton in seven attempts, conceding three or more goals in five of those matches.

We foresee a scenario where the visitors will score as much as the hosts allow, while the Magpies will capitalize on their opportunities. Given the Clarets' defensive frailties, we predict a decisive scoreline in favor of Newcastle, potentially 4-1. With this in mind, there's a strong likelihood of a Newcastle win with a -1.5 handicap.