Lazio vs Milan Prediction 5 December 2025

📢 What can we expect from the standout clash in the Coppa Italia Round of 16 at the Stadio Olimpico? Just days ago, Lazio and AC Milan faced off in the league, but this upcoming cup encounter is a whole different ball game. There's no chance for redemption next week; everything hinges on this single match. Adding to the intrigue is a lingering controversy: Lazio feel aggrieved over a contentious non-awarded penalty against Milan in the dying moments of their recent encounter. Now, the Eagles have a chance to settle the score.

Head-to-Head

📢 The head-to-head history between Lazio and Milan spans 48 matches in recent years. The advantage lies with the Rossoneri, who have claimed 22 victories compared to the Romans' 13, with 13 games ending in a draw. The teams last faced off just recently during the 13th round of Serie A, where Milan edged out a narrow 1-0 victory.

Lazio Rome Team Overview

🔵 Lazio are currently one of the most consistent teams in Serie A. The "Eagles" consistently secure points against lower-ranked opponents, but due to a transfer ban, they almost always fall short against stronger clubs. This has kept the Romans stuck in mid-table. Last weekend, Lazio traveled to face AC Milan and suffered a 0-1 defeat. Despite an unexpected advantage in possession (54% to 46%), they failed to create genuine threats against the Rossoneri's goal — they approached the penalty area but couldn't convert these into truly dangerous chances.

⚪ In the Coppa Italia, Lazio skipped the Round of 32 thanks to their seventh-place finish in Serie A last season and will begin their campaign from the Round of 16.

Milan Team Overview

🔴 AC Milan are showcasing impressive football at the start of the season, correcting last year's mistakes. After 13 rounds, the team sits atop the Serie A standings with 28 points out of a possible 39. This level of play positions the Rossoneri as major contenders for the Scudetto, and it's no surprise that in their recent head-to-head encounter with Lazio, they were seen as clear favorites. Milan confidently did their job, scoring the only goal early in the second half and securing the win, although there was a tense moment at the end with a lengthy VAR review; a penalty could have changed everything.

⚫ Due to a disappointing last season, finishing only eighth in the league, Milan had to start their Coppa Italia journey from the Round of 32. In the previous round, they comfortably dispatched Lecce at San Siro (3-0). By the 18th minute, the visitors were down to ten men, significantly easing the task for the Rossoneri and allowing them to calmly advance to the next stage.

Latest news

Lazio Rome

📣 After their 0-1 defeat to AC Milan, Lazio refused to engage with the press. Neither Maurizio Sarri nor the players appeared before journalists. The club's official channels issued a brief statement: "We regret that we cannot answer questions in the press room, but everything is clear from the match footage."

🚫 Lazio's injury list remains largely unchanged. Danilo Cataldi is sidelined until late December due to a calf injury. Three players are doubtful: Samuel Gigot and Matteo Cancellieri are still recovering from muscle injuries, while Nicolo Rovella is dealing with a groin issue. Decisions on their availability will be made closer to the match.

Milan

📣 AC Milan's head coach Massimiliano Allegri, following the home victory over Lazio (1-0), admitted that the match's conclusion was nerve-wracking due to a lengthy VAR review: "It was pure chaos at the end. The referee had a tough time making a decision after being called to the VAR. In the first half, we struggled as Lazio effectively blocked all passing lanes." Allegri spoke modestly yet respectfully about the reasons for their success: "After the break, we increased our pace, and the opponent slightly faltered, allowing us to take control of the game. The team showed both patience and passion—this collective effort delivered the goal and three points." Commenting on his ejection, Allegri acknowledged that emotions got the better of him: "I told the referee, 'Every time you officiate, it turns into a mess.' I didn't mean to offend, but he immediately sent me off."

🚫 Milan are also facing some squad issues. Santiago Giménez is recovering from an ankle injury and is expected to return by mid-December. Zakaria Atekame is on a similar timeline with a muscle injury. Christian Pulisic is also recovering from a muscle injury, but his return date remains uncertain.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

⚽️ Goal Prediction

The previous encounter between Lazio and Milan was a tightly contested and cautious affair, decided by a solitary strike from Rafael Leão. Both teams prioritized defense, leaving little room for attacking play. Given that only a few days have passed since that match, significant tactical changes are unlikely. It's expected that this game will once again be a low-scoring and defensive battle. Therefore, betting on under 2.5 goals seems like the most reasonable option.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Lazio and Milan rank among Serie A's poorest teams in terms of corners won. The "Eagles" average 3.5 corners per match, while the "Rossoneri" average 3.8, placing them 15th and 14th respectively in this category. In their Saturday meeting, the teams combined for just five corners throughout the match, making a bet on under 9.5 corners the most insightful choice.