Leeds vs Chelsea Prediction 4 December 2025

🔊 Can Leeds trouble another title contender? Last round, the Peacocks gave Manchester City a run for their money on the road, and now they host Chelsea at Elland Road. The odds clearly indicate who the favorite is, but bookmakers aren't entirely confident in the visitors' success. Let's delve into why that might be. We'll provide a detailed analysis of the upcoming match and offer some intriguing betting options.

Head-to-Head

📊 It's clear that Chelsea have the upper hand in head-to-head matchups. However, it's worth noting that their last two trips to Elland Road haven't been successful for the Blues. In 2021, they settled for a goalless draw (0-0), and in 2022, they were soundly defeated 0-3. Interestingly, these encounters often turn out to be high-scoring affairs—with the over 2.5 goals bet hitting in 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Leeds United Team Overview

Four consecutive defeats have pushed the Peacocks into the relegation zone, and given their upcoming fixtures, escaping it will be a tough task. After facing Chelsea, they are set to clash with a Liverpool side hungry for points. But let's focus on the positives, which, fortunately for Leeds fans, do exist. Yes, Daniel Farke's men lost their last two matches, but they put up a fight against top-five contenders.

First, there was Aston Villa (1-2), a match that was evenly contested in all respects, followed by Manchester City (2-3). In the previous round, Leeds nearly grabbed points at the Etihad, coming back from 0-2 down. Dominic Calvert-Lewin made an impressive impact off the bench in his 250th Premier League appearance, scoring a goal and winning a penalty, which was converted (albeit not without difficulty) by Lukas Nmecha. However, the Peacocks lacked the luck to hold onto a winning scoreline.

Chelsea Team Overview

In the aftermath of the last round, Chelsea's winning streak came to an end, causing them to slip to third in the league standings. Paradoxically, the praise for the team has only increased. Following the match against Arsenal (1-1), many now see the "Blues" as genuine title contenders, and it's easy to understand why.

Despite Moisés Caicedo's red card, a key player for the team, Chelsea not only secured a point but also matched the "Gunners" in every aspect except possession. The "Pensioners" scored from a set piece and managed to launch sharp attacks even with ten men, ultimately surpassing their rivals in shots (11-8) and expected goals (1.31-1.25). Enzo Maresca's protégés are in excellent physical shape, as they outpaced Mikel Arteta's squad despite being a man down.

Latest news

Leeds United

❓ The Guardian reports that the next two matches will determine Daniel Farke's fate. If Leeds lose to Chelsea and Liverpool, the manager will be dismissed. The club's management has had doubts about the German's prospects in the Premier League and considered parting ways with him immediately after promotion, but ultimately decided to give him a chance. However, some concerns have emerged regarding the summer signings, which cost over £100 million. The main question is why the focus was on players' physical attributes rather than their technical skills.

❌ James Justin, Sebastiaan Bornauw, Sean Longstaff, and Anton Stach are sidelined for Leeds. The latter two are particularly crucial for the team, as they are key players in the central line.

Chelsea

🎙 "I believe we've shown that we're heading in the right direction. I always emphasize the same point. The game was fantastic, and we looked much better when it was 11 vs 11. When you're down to ten men, it becomes challenging, but we handled it brilliantly. In the '11 on 11' format, we were the better side—trying to find the best solutions and the optimal spaces. We knew they'd be on the flanks with Gusto and Estevao. Today, we can be pleased with our performance, even though we didn't win," Enzo Maresca stated at the press conference following the London derby.

❌ Just like before the previous matchday, Chelsea's injury list includes Dário Essugo, Levi Colwill, and Romeo Lavia (who is close to returning). A recent setback is the suspension of Moisés Caicedo.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

We're looking at some of the Premier League's biggest fans of the yellow card. Leeds average 2.17 bookings per home game, while Chelsea pick up 2.67 on the road. Regardless of who the referee is, they'll likely be reaching for their pocket frequently. And with Darren England officiating, who hands out an average of 3.8 yellow cards per match this season, we're confident in betting on over 3.5 yellow cards.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Statistics are stubborn, and it's hard to argue with them. Leeds have conceded after the break in eight consecutive matches, while Chelsea have scored in the second half in five straight games across all competitions. A bet on a goal from the visitors in the second half seems almost inevitable. We believe the trend will continue.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Despite their poor standing in the league, the "Peacocks" don't appear helpless at Elland Road and actively try to create chances from set-pieces. They average 4.83 corners per home game, so we suggest a bet on the underdog with over 3.5 corners from Leeds. The "Whites" have surpassed this mark in 23 of their last 25 home matches.

Chelsea are strong, and we won't dispute their status as favorites in this clash. However, Leeds have recently shown they are ready to fight and challenge top-table teams. We believe the Peacocks can capitalize on the physical and emotional fatigue of the Blues following the derby, potentially causing one of the midweek upsets. Therefore, we will refrain from betting on the outcome and instead go for over 2.5 goals, which is typical for both head-to-head encounters and Leeds' recent Premier League matches (hit in 8 out of 9). Our predicted score is a thrilling 2-2 draw.