Brighton vs Aston Villa Prediction 4 December 2025

🔊 How will the battle for a top-four Premier League spot between Brighton and Aston Villa conclude? Currently, the Birmingham side are in the Champions League zone. However, the Seagulls trail by just two points, and the upcoming match will take place at their home ground, the Amex. Fabian Hürzeler's squad remains unbeaten at home this season. Can the Villans end the hosts' successful run? Let's evaluate the odds for both teams in our editorial prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 Brighton have proven to be a relatively favorable opponent for Aston Villa. In their last 10 encounters, the Seagulls have managed to take points from the Lions four times, securing victory in only two matches. Meanwhile, the Birmingham side have claimed six wins. Notably, in 5 of the last 6 meetings, the total number of goals exceeded 2.5.

Brighton & Hove Albion Team Overview

The Seagulls continue their rapid ascent up the Premier League table. Over the last four rounds, Brighton have climbed from 11th to 5th place. This surge is largely due to a relatively manageable schedule, with their toughest opponent during this stretch being Crystal Palace. It was against the Eagles that Fabian Hurzeler's side slipped up, settling for a draw (0-0). However, this in no way diminishes Brighton's accomplishments. After all, the Seagulls are primarily remembered for their strong performances against the league's giants, while they often faced challenges against mid-table teams.

Nottingham Forest posed no threat to Brighton in the 13th round of the Premier League, even though the match took place at the City Ground. The Seagulls did not fall behind the hosts in any metric. The teams nearly split territorial advantage evenly (52% to 48% in favor of the Reds) and frequently took shots on goal (19 to 17 in favor of Forest). However, the visitors were more dangerous in attack (1.46 xG compared to 1.07 xG) and consequently scored more goals (2-0).

Aston Villa Team Overview

The Birmingham side have experienced an even more remarkable rise than Brighton. After four rounds of the Premier League, Unai Emery's team were languishing in second-to-last place, but over the next ten matches, they suffered just one defeat and climbed to fourth. Aston Villa's winning streak in the Premier League stands at three matches, and including the Europa League, it extends to five.

In the 13th round of the Premier League, Aston Villa hosted the league's bottom team, Wolverhampton. There was no complete dominance from the Birmingham side. The hosts edged past the Wolves with a narrow 1-0 victory. The possession stats were similarly close (53% to 47%). However, the Lions attacked more frequently and dangerously (16 shots with 1.12 xG compared to 9 shots with 0.66 xG). This is Unai Emery's style, especially with such a congested schedule where, if there are no European competitions midweek, England will surely have a cup match or league fixture.

Latest news

Brighton & Hove Albion

⚡ Chinese football fans have criticized Brighton and their Japanese winger Kaoru Mitoma after a controversial photo of him surfaced on social media. In the picture, Mitoma is seen smiling while holding an image of the last Japanese soldier to surrender during World War II. The club's press office stated that the photo was taken at an event leading up to the Premier League Christmas tournament, where under-12 players from eight English clubs compete against European teams. Brighton has already apologized to their Chinese supporters: "We greatly value our fans in China and did not intend to offend anyone," the team posted on social media.

❌ Kaoru Mitoma is participating in Christmas events as he recovers from an ankle injury. Joining him on the sidelines are James Milner, Solly March, and Adam Webster.

Aston Villa

🎙 Aston Villa's head coach praised his players following their victory over Wolverhampton. "The most important thing is how the players handle their responsibilities. They're clearly stepping up. Being mature, being a player, acting like a man. Behaving in a way that the team needs at every moment and across different competitions. I think the most crucial aspect is how the players conduct themselves. Now, the players are showing the commitment we need. They did it before too, but in some situations, it didn't help us. But now, when we see Emiliano Martinez making two or three crucial saves... Like today, when we scored a goal, we all felt those emotions together. I think we really needed to add this aspect of football in the locker room – just as we're doing now," said Unai Emery.

❌ Tyrone Mings is still recovering from a hamstring injury. Joining him in the treatment room after the latest Premier League round is Ross Barkley. The Englishman left the field 14 minutes after coming on as a substitute. The extent of his injury is still being assessed by the medical staff.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The main referee for the match is Andy Madley. Over his last 10 Premier League games, he averages 2.9 yellow cards per match. However, this upcoming game might demand more from the referee. In 7 of the last 8 head-to-head encounters between these teams, the total number of cautions has not dropped below 4.5. Currently, they are positioned next to each other on the brink of the Champions League and Europa League zones. With so much at stake, there's a strong likelihood that the total yellow cards will exceed 3.5.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

In analyzing their head-to-head meetings, we've noted that their recent clashes have been quite entertaining. To remind you, in 5 of the last 6 encounters, the total goals have surpassed the 2.5 mark. High scoring has also been a feature in Brighton's home games this season and towards the end of last season: at least three goals have been scored in 9 of their last 10 matches. Both sides boast quality players. Brighton's Danny Welbeck is in excellent form, netting five goals in seven matches. For Aston Villa, Donyell Malen has been impressive (5+1 including international matches). All signs point towards a total goals over 2.5.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Brighton are one of those teams that primarily use a 4-2-3-1 formation for counter-attacking play. Positional attacks are not as effective for Fabian Hurzeler's side, which is reflected in their set-piece statistics. Interestingly, their average number of corners in six home games is even lower than in seven away matches (4.67 compared to 5.29). Our prediction: Brighton's total corners under 5.5.

Brighton and Aston Villa seem evenly matched at the moment. Sure, the Birmingham side has the edge in class, but the Seagulls are not distracted by other tournaments and will be playing at their home ground, the Amex, where they remain unbeaten this season. While the Villans were stronger than the Seagulls in last season's Premier League campaign, each team has its own advantages for a successful outcome in this clash. Even their positions in the league table suggest parity between these sides. A high-scoring draw, like a 2-2 result, seems fair to us. In this scenario, a bet on both teams to score (yes) should come through.