Athletic vs Real Madrid Prediction 4 December 2025

🔈 What are the odds of the Basques ending Real Madrid's unbeaten run and complicating their title chase? This Wednesday evening, Athletic Club face off against Real Madrid in a rescheduled La Liga match from the 19th round. Both teams are vying for European competition spots, but Ernesto Valverde's side is not in the best form, and their prospects against a historically challenging opponent remain uncertain. Despite playing away, the bookmakers give Xabi Alonso's team a twofold advantage.

Head-to-Head

📊 Let's delve into the head-to-head statistics over the last 10 encounters: Athletic have secured 2 wins, 1 draw, while Real Madrid have claimed victory 7 times. Interestingly, these matchups aren't known for high-scoring affairs, averaging around 1.9 goals per game over this span. Last season, both clubs triumphed on home turf: the Basques emerged victorious at San Mamés (2-1), while Los Blancos avenged their loss at Santiago Bernabéu (1-0).

Athletic Bilbao Team Overview

🔴 Ernesto Valverde's squad is struggling with a lack of consistency, which is reflected in their league position. Currently, the Basques find themselves in 8th place in the standings, having collected only 20 points from 14 matches. A key indicator of Athletic's performance is their average scoring rate — just one goal per game. It's also important to note the effectiveness of the "red and whites" in home fixtures, where they have earned 13 points from 7 matches. The most prolific player for Athletic this season in La Liga is Nico Williams, who has scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist.

⚪ Last weekend, the "Lions" secured a crucial victory over Levante (2-0) at the Ciutat de València. This match was largely controlled by Ernesto Valverde's side. A quick glance at the expected goals ratio — 2.9 to 1.3 — tells the story. The tactical approach of the Basque club is characterized by a high degree of discipline and attention to detail. This is partly why Ernesto Valverde has never been a flexible coach, capable of devising numerous alternative solutions depending on the situation. This season, the "red and whites" have been plagued by numerous personnel issues, directly impacting the stability and quality of their football.

Real Madrid Team Overview

⚪ The "Los Blancos" find themselves in a questionable form, having dropped points in three consecutive rounds of the national league. This slip has allowed their main title rival, Barcelona, to reclaim the top spot in the La Liga standings. Several Spanish sources report that Xabi Alonso's ideas don't resonate with a significant part of the squad, with some players convinced that his methods won't lead the club to consistent major successes. Nevertheless, the gap to the top is only 1 point, so it's far from a critical situation. Let's take a look at the "Galacticos" average performance: they score 2.07 goals and concede 0.93 per game.

📌 In the last round, Real Madrid couldn't afford to drop points if they wanted to avoid ceding the lead back to Barcelona. Much to the disappointment of their fans, that's exactly what happened—a draw was recorded against a struggling Girona (1-1). Xabi Alonso's side had a solid advantage and definitely deserved more than just a single point. However, less convincing defensive actions in the build-up and subpar ball progression from the midfielders dictated the final outcome. Kylian Mbappe remains the top scorer not only for Real but also in the entire league with 14 goals and 3 assists.

Latest news

Athletic Bilbao

🎤 After their 2-0 victory over Levante, Ernesto Valverde highlighted the significance of this win: “This match was crucial for us in many ways – both in terms of morale and, most importantly, to regain our confidence after a few disappointing results. We need to translate our superiority into results; otherwise, the game drags on. We knew that everything could change in the second half. They made three substitutions at halftime and came out with renewed energy. In the second half, we managed to withstand their pressure and create several clear chances. We scored from our first opportunity. After that, we had a few more chances to net a second goal. Levante posed threats during set pieces. Our second goal calmed us down a bit, although we knew there was still a long way to go. We fought well against their long balls, just like in Prague, and were able to advance in attack.”

❌ Athletic's injury list continues with Iñaki Williams (groin injury), Marouane Sannadi (knee injury), Beñat Prados (knee injury), Robert Navarro (leg injury), Unai Eguiluz (knee injury). Due to suspension, they can't rely on the support of Oihan Sancet.

Real Madrid

🎤 After the 1-1 draw with Girona, Xabi Alonso couldn't escape the media's spotlight. Here's what the Spanish tactician had to say: "There are different phases in a season. Early on, we were consistent on the road, but things have changed in recent matches. In the second half today, we played much better than in the first. We managed to equalize. The team pushed to score, and we had three or four good chances to net a second goal and secure the win. We must adhere to the high standards set at Real. The season is long. I have no complaints about the players; they responded well to the goal. We need to stay united while being self-critical and maintain the desire to win away. We haven't been able to dominate for extended periods, which is what we're aiming for. We need to figure out why that hasn't happened."

❌ Real Madrid's injury list includes David Alaba (muscle injury), Dani Carvajal (knee injury), and Dean Heisen (muscle injury).

⚽ Goal Prediction

⚽ Goal Prediction

In 4 of Athletic's last 5 matches, no more than 2 goals were scored. As previously mentioned, the head-to-head clashes between the Basques and Los Blancos also tend to be low-scoring affairs, with a maximum of 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 encounters. Additionally, we must consider the home side's notably poor attacking efficiency in the current La Liga campaign, averaging just 1 goal per game. Our editorial choice is under 3 goals total.

🚩 Corner Prediction

While Athletic and Real Madrid's head-to-heads aren't known for high goal tallies, they do see plenty of corners—averaging around 10.8 per game. In fact, at least 11 corners have been recorded in 6 of their last 7 meetings. It's also worth noting the average corners each side earns this season: the Lions average 5.4, while Los Blancos average 6.1. We are opting for the following outcome: over 9.5 total corners.

In our opinion, betting on the outcome might not be the most rational decision here. Athletic are capable of causing Real Madrid problems on their home turf, and the current state of the "Los Blancos" squad doesn't guarantee success at San Mamés. It seems safer to focus on the scoring trends in their head-to-head clashes, where these teams rarely engage in high-scoring affairs. We anticipate a final score of 1-1. The key bet is on under 3 total goals.