Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction 1 December 2025

🔊 Will the London derby inject intrigue into the Premier League title race? The standout fixture of Matchday 13 is the clash between Chelsea and Arsenal at Stamford Bridge. Both teams are in excellent form and sit at the top of the table. To underline their serious intentions in the title race, the Blues need to defeat the Gunners, which would reduce their deficit to just three points. However, bookmakers aren't quite convinced, as the visitors are considered the favorites for this encounter.

Head-to-Head

📊 Let's not dig too deep and instead focus on the statistics from the last three seasons. During this period, the teams have only faced each other in the Premier League, resulting in six encounters. Chelsea haven't managed to win any of these matches, securing just two points at home (2-2; 1-1).

Chelsea Team Overview

Enzo Maresca's project at Chelsea initially faced a lot of skepticism, but over time, the doubters are dwindling. Under the Italian manager, the Blues have once again become contenders for major trophies. They have won 5 out of 6 Premier League matches since the beginning of October, climbing to second place. Notably, they are on a three-game clean sheet winning streak.

And it's not just in the Premier League where the Pensioners are a formidable force. This past Tuesday, they thrashed Barcelona 3-0 in a Champions League clash. The Londoners overwhelmed the Catalans with their pressing, forcing them to play to Chelsea's tune. Marc Cucurella completely neutralized Lamine Yamal, while the promising Estevao scored yet another goal. This extends Chelsea's unbeaten run across all competitions to six matches. The only slip-up in this stretch was a 2-2 away draw with Qarabag, largely due to squad rotation.

Arsenal Team Overview

As Chelsea's head coach noted, Arsenal are dominating every competition they participate in. Their last defeat came back in August against Liverpool (0-1), and since then, they've only dropped points twice. Opta's supercomputer sees the Gunners as the main favorites in both the Premier League (with a 76.1% chance of winning) and the Champions League (22.6%).

This is largely due to Mikel Arteta's protégés clashing with Bayern Munich in what was an unofficial showdown for the title of Europe's best team at the moment. The result was a convincing 3-1 victory for the Londoners. While Bayern put up a fight in the first half, they were simply overwhelmed in the second. Arsenal once again demonstrated their superiority on set pieces, solid defensive play, and squad depth. The decisive goals came from substitutes Madueke and Martinelli.

Latest news

Chelsea

🎙 Enzo Maresca praised Arsenal ahead of the derby: "Without a doubt, Arsenal are fantastic defensively. Many teams struggle to create chances against them, let alone score goals. They are very strong in defense and ruthless in attack. They are leading both the Premier League and the Champions League. We'll do everything we can on the pitch to beat them."

❌ Chelsea's injury list still includes Romeo Lavia, Levi Colwill, and Dario Essugo. According to Enzo Maresca, Cole Palmer will be ready to play for the first time since September.

Arsenal

🎙 "It's obviously a top match, a big London derby. We're going up against a really strong opponent who are in great form. We understand the challenge and the opportunity to showcase ourselves on Sunday. We're fully prepared for this game," Mikel Arteta confidently stated at the press conference.

❌ Arsenal will be without two Brazilians—defender Gabriel and forward Gabriel Jesus. Mikel Arteta is hopeful for the return of Kai Havertz and Viktor Gyökeres, as well as Leandro Trossard, who picked up a muscle injury in the match against Bayern.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The high-profile match of the round will be officiated by a team of referees led by Anthony Taylor. The Englishman averages 3.1 yellow cards per game in the current Premier League season and doesn't seem inclined to raise that bar significantly. Is there even a need for it? If you look at the trends for yellow cards, it's easy to see they're generally low. Despite the derby status, we're willing to suggest that Taylor, true to his usual style, won't be handing out cards liberally. Therefore, we opt for a bet on under 4.5 yellow cards, a wager that has come through in 17 of Arsenal's last 18 matches.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Both head-to-head meetings between these teams last season were low-scoring affairs, and it seems unlikely we'll see a change in trend. This will be a tactical battle where any risks are minimized. Thus, a reasonable betting option appears to be under 3.5 goals, which has been recorded in six consecutive Chelsea matches, as well as in 6 of Arsenal's last 7 Premier League games.

🚩 Corner Predictions

Finally, we've reached the corners, and here we expect an "over." Both teams lead the league in this metric, averaging more than 6.5 corner kicks per game. We don't see the point in taking unnecessary risks with this bet, so we'll go with over 8.5 corners, which has hit in 22 of Chelsea's last 23 Premier League matches.

Arsenal appear more cohesive and solid, which explains the odds set by the bookmakers. However, we want to highlight a couple of strong arguments in favor of Chelsea. Firstly, Arsenal have failed to win in their last two visits to Stamford Bridge. Secondly, Mikel Arteta's side will have one less day of rest after their Champions League match, which could impact the outcome. Therefore, our editorial team sees a draw as the most likely result, with a scoreline of 1-1.

Both teams are Premier League leaders in xG metrics, and we expect each side to convert at least one of their chances. The bet on both teams to score (yes) has come through in five of the last seven derbies at Chelsea's stadium, so that's our primary choice.