Bayern vs St Pauli Prediction 29 November 2025

🔊 As part of the 12th round, Bayern Munich host St. Pauli at the Allianz Arena. Domestically unbeaten, Bayern face a St. Pauli side that have lost eight consecutive matches. The Munich giants were on an 18-game unbeaten streak since the start of the season, but suffered their first defeat in the Champions League on Wednesday. Now, they aim to get back to winning ways. Last season, the "Pirates" put up a tough fight against Bayern, but this Saturday, their chances seem slim.

Head-to-Head

📊 In last season's Bundesliga, St. Pauli narrowly lost in both rounds, falling 0-1 at their Millerntor Stadium and 2-3 at the Allianz Arena.

Bayern Munich Team Overview

🔴 In the 10th round, Bayern dropped points for the first time this season, drawing 2-2 in Berlin against Union. In their next match, they returned to the Allianz Arena to face Freiburg, where they found themselves two goals down by the 17th minute, conceding both from set-pieces, just like in the capital. However, before halftime, Bayern managed to level the score, and in the second half, they netted four more goals, finishing the match 6-2. Michael Olise had an outstanding performance, tallying 5 points (2 goals, 3 assists) in the goal+assist system. Karl, Upamecano, Kane, and Jackson also found the net. Bayern confidently lead the table, maintaining a six-point gap over Leipzig.

🏆 Bayern's unbeaten streak of 18 matches at the start of the season was halted on Wednesday during their Champions League clash with Arsenal. The Bundesliga leaders were defeated in North London (1-3), relinquishing their top spot in the group stage standings. Lennart Karl scored for Munich — his third goal in what has been a breakthrough season for the 17-year-old in the first team. He has now become the youngest player in Champions League history to score in his first two matches of the tournament (previously scoring against Club Brugge – 4-0).

St. Pauli Team Overview

🟤 This season, St. Pauli have yet to earn any points on the road. They secured seven points in their first three fixtures in Hamburg: drawing with Dortmund (3-3), defeating Augsburg (2-1) at the Millerntor-Stadion, and triumphing over Hamburg (2-0) at the Volksparkstadion. After a promising start to the season, setting a club record with seven points in the opening three Bundesliga rounds, the "Pirates" hit a rough patch, losing eight consecutive matches. In their last outing, St. Pauli failed to secure points in a home clash against Union Berlin (0-1) and remain in 16th place with a goal difference of 9:21—only Heidenheim have scored fewer. It's hard to envision how Alexander Blessin's squad will handle the onslaught from Bayern.

🏆 The only bright spot in recent months has been the "Pirates'" home victory over Hoffenheim in the DFB-Pokal (2-2 in regular and extra time, 8-7 on penalties). Following the match against Bayern, they face an away fixture against Borussia Mönchengladbach for a spot in the quarterfinals. St. Pauli might be more focused on that game than their clash in Munich.

Latest news

Bayern Munich

🎙 Vincent Kompany on the match against St. Pauli: "The most important thing for us is that in preparation, we don't differentiate between Arsenal and St. Pauli. Of course, we're playing at home rather than away, but looking at St. Pauli, we see they're doing well. Recently, we've faced them twice, and they put up a tough resistance. We know it won't be easy, even despite their eight consecutive losses. The match against Bayern could play out differently—when a team is at the lower end of the table, there's less pressure on them. This could work in St. Pauli's favor."

💊 Alphonso Davies and Jamal Musiala continue their preparations for a return to the field.

St. Pauli

🎙 Alexander Blessin on the match against Bayern: "It all comes down to how many chances we allow them and how many we can create ourselves to catch a breather. We want to keep the game open for as long as possible. If we manage that, it means we've contained the might of Bayern. In training, we've talked about the need to keep improving. Clearly, facing such an opponent won't be easy."

❌ David Nemeth remains sidelined due to a groin injury.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

Felix Zwayer will officiate the match at the Allianz Arena. On Wednesday, he oversaw the Champions League clash between PSG and Tottenham (5-3), issuing one yellow and one red card. In the Bundesliga, Bayern rank fourth for yellow cards with 26 (averaging 2.4 per game), while St. Pauli are ninth with 21 (1.9). The predicted individual total for St. Pauli is under 2.5 yellow cards, a trend that has held in 7 of their last 8 away matches.

⚽ Goal Prediction

Despite their strength, Bayern have defensive issues, conceding in each of their last four games with a total of 8 goals allowed. St. Pauli are one of the weakest attacking teams, scoring only 2 goals while conceding 17 in their last eight defeats. Vincent Kompany and his coaching staff are likely to make adjustments in defense, so it's reasonable to predict that St. Pauli will not score at the Allianz Arena.

🚩 Corner Prediction

After 11 rounds, Bayern average 5.5 corners per game, while Hamburg's St. Pauli average 5.6. We predict Bayern's individual total will be under 7.5 corners, a scenario that has occurred in 17 of their last 19 Bundesliga matches.

After their Champions League setback, Bayern could set themselves the challenge of going unbeaten in the Bundesliga this season. The gap between them and the rest of the league is substantial. While being completely invincible isn't necessary, winning every match is in the club's DNA. We don't foresee a positive outcome for St. Pauli; this season, they are unlikely to withstand a Bayern side of this caliber, even if the "Pirates" defend with all their might from within their penalty area. Our prediction: Bayern to win with a -2.5 handicap. A rout seems inevitable – 5-0.