Pafos vs Monaco Prediction 27 November 2025

🔊 In the 5th round of the Champions League, table neighbors Pafos and Monaco will face off. While Monaco sitting in 19th place is no surprise, the Cypriots making history at 20th in their debut season in Europe's premier competition is remarkable. In their previous home match, they defeated Villarreal, who are currently in the top 3 of La Liga. This time, one of France's giants, Monaco, will visit the Alphamega Stadium in Limassol. Can the hosts pull off another upset? Our editorial team provides an insightful prediction on both teams' chances of success.

Head-to-Head

📊 The teams have not faced each other before.

Pafos Team Overview

Pafos, alongside Qarabag, have emerged as the two major surprises in the current Champions League. After their victory over Villarreal in Matchday 4 (1-0), the Cypriots climbed to 20th in the standings, securing a spot in the round of 16 playoffs. While Juan Carlos Carcedo's squad may have been outplayed by most of their opponents in Europe's premier club competition, only Bayern Munich truly dominated the Champions League debutants, thrashing them 5-1.

The congested schedule due to Pafos' Champions League involvement has impacted their domestic results. Firstly, they lost the national Super Cup to AEK Larnaca (1-1 in regular time and 4-5 on penalties). Secondly, they recently ceded the top spot in the league to their main rivals, Omonia (1-2). However, as the international break approaches, their form has improved. Pafos are now unbeaten in three consecutive matches, and thanks to a victory over Aris Limassol (2-1), they have reclaimed the top position in the league standings.

Monaco Team Overview

The "Monegasques" have undergone a managerial change this season, but the arrival of Sebastien Pocognoli has yet to yield the desired results. Under the Belgian coach, Monaco have shown relatively stable performances only in the Champions League, where the "Red and Whites" are on a three-match unbeaten run. In the fourth round, they secured a 1-0 away victory over Bodø/Glimt. This win lifted the French side to 19th place in the standings, ensuring a spot in the playoff matches.

However, Monaco's results in Ligue 1 leave much to be desired. They have suffered three consecutive defeats, with the last two being heavy 1-4 losses to Lens and Rennes. Red cards significantly impacted both outcomes, although Monaco looked quite competitive before those incidents. These setbacks have dropped Sebastien Pocognoli's team to eighth place in the league, eight points adrift of the third spot that guarantees Champions League qualification.

Latest news

Pafos

🎙 The head coach of Pafos shared his thoughts on their sensational victory over Villarreal in the fourth round of the Champions League. "This is our first win in the Champions League and our first points. Securing them against a Spanish team is a huge joy. The president is already demanding a top-8 finish from me. Villarreal started very strongly and had two great chances, but we adapted and defended well. At halftime, we talked about staying in the game, knowing opportunities would come, and that's exactly what happened right after the second half began. Sometimes football rewards those who know how to wait for their moment," said Juan Carlos Carcedo.

❌ Pafos will be without three key players ahead of their game against Monaco. In the penultimate round of the Cypriot championship, goalkeeper Jay Gorter was sidelined. Ken Sema, who provided an assist in the match against Villarreal, suffered a muscle injury during the international break. João Correia, one of the team's top scorers with four goals this season, will miss another match due to suspension from a red card.

Monaco

🎙 A landmark moment unfolded in the latest Ligue 1 round as Paul Pogba finally made his debut for Monaco, stepping onto the pitch in the 85th minute. The midfielder shared his thoughts on his return: “I’m not done with football. We’ve worked hard, waited over two years to come back. We’re going to keep pushing to achieve our other goals. I want to enjoy myself. Despite everything that has happened, the issues off the field, I’ve suffered the most. I was really looking forward to this. There are times when the devil speaks in your head, trying to convince you it’s over. But God is beside me, I believe in myself. I believe in my abilities. I did nothing wrong, it wasn’t my fault. I haven’t lost hope.”

❌ Monaco’s head coach will be without two players for the match against Pafos. Christian Mavissa has already missed four games due to a hamstring injury, marking his third setback of the season. Similarly, summer signing Eric Dier has faced challenges; the Englishman just recovered from a muscle injury only to be sidelined again with calf issues.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by the main referee Ivan Kruzliak from Slovakia. Over his last 20 matches across all competitions, he has averaged 3.9 yellow cards per game. Both teams tend to rack up a fair number of cautions individually. Pafos have the edge in this regard, with five yellow cards compared to four in their last five games. However, Monaco have been disadvantaged by two red cards in their last two Ligue 1 fixtures. Given the clubs' close standings in the Champions League table, a fiercely contested battle is expected. Our prediction: total yellow cards over 3.5.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Recent matches have exposed Monaco's defensive frailties. The team has conceded eight goals in their last two games, influenced heavily by red cards in each match. This highlights a lack of discipline among the Monegasques. Meanwhile, Pafos have shown impressive form at home, scoring in eight consecutive games. Considering that both teams have found the back of the net in 6 out of Monaco's last 7 away games, it seems reasonable to predict that both teams will score (yes).

🚩 Corner Prediction

Monaco's primary formation is 3-4-2-1, which focuses on building attacks primarily through the center. The wing-backs deliver the ball to two central playmakers who either create key plays or set up the lone striker. This strategy influences the number of set pieces from corner flags against opponents. Over the last five matches, Monaco have averaged just 4.2 corners, and in Ligue 1, they average only 4.54 corners per game. We anticipate that in Limassol, Monaco's total corners will be under 5.5.

The contrasting results of both teams in recent matches haven't significantly affected the odds. According to bookmakers, the difference in class plays a crucial role here. However, Pafos' rise in the Champions League standings is undeniably impressive, with home games being a key factor in their point accumulation. On home turf, the Cypriots have only lost once in their last eight matches, and that was against the formidable Bayern Munich. Struggling Monaco have failed to score more than one goal in their last four outings, and breaking through Pafos' organized defense, led by the experienced David Luiz, will be incredibly challenging. Regardless of who emerges victorious from this upcoming clash, we don't expect a large margin of victory. In such a scenario, betting on total goals under 3.5 seems most logical. A fair result would be a high-scoring draw (1-1).