Napoli vs Qarabag Prediction 26 November 2025

📢 What can we expect from the clash between Napoli and Qarabag in the 5th round of the Champions League at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium? The teams' standings ahead of this encounter are quite surprising. Before the tournament began, Napoli were expected to compete for the top spots, yet the reigning Italian champions find themselves only in 24th place. Meanwhile, Qarabag have been a pleasant surprise, confidently sitting in 15th with a three-point cushion over the Neapolitans. Against this backdrop of unexpected power dynamics, the upcoming match holds significant importance for both sides.

Head-to-Head

📊 The teams have never faced each other before.

Napoli Team Overview

🔵 Napoli were in dire need of the November international break. Earlier in the month, the team endured a lackluster stretch: a run of three matches without a win and not a single goal scored, causing concern even among their most loyal supporters. The break proved beneficial: last weekend, the Partenopei confidently defeated Atalanta (3-1), netting all three goals in the first half and easing off after the break—Serie A's schedule is becoming increasingly packed, and saving energy will be crucial. In the league standings, Napoli remain among the leaders.

⚪ However, the Champions League presents a far less optimistic picture. After four rounds, the reigning Italian champions sit in 24th place with 4 points and a negative goal difference (-5). The most disappointing was their recent match against Eintracht Frankfurt—the Neapolitans failed to break down the defense of one of the Bundesliga's weakest defensive sides (22 goals conceded in 11 matches) and ended 0-0 on home soil. Their chances of reaching the top 8 are diminishing rapidly, and now Napoli must focus on at least staying among the top 24.

Qarabag Team Overview

⚫ Qarabag have emerged as one of the standout teams in this year's Champions League. They navigated the qualifying rounds with confidence and continue to perform strongly in the group stage. After four matches, the Azerbaijani club sits 15th with 7 points, ahead of several renowned teams. Their results are indeed impressive: in the opening round, Qarabag pulled off a stunning comeback, defeating Benfica away (3-2), despite trailing 0-2 by the 16th minute. In their most recent match, they held the reigning Club World Cup champions to a 2-2 draw at home, showcasing a bold and well-structured style of play. If they maintain this momentum, advancing to the playoffs could soon become a reality.

⚪ Domestically, Qarabag are also on track, sitting at the top of the table with 26 points out of a possible 33. On November 21, Gurban Gurbanov's side convincingly defeated Sumgayit away (4-2), registering 10 shots on target. The team is in excellent form and is more than capable of posing a serious challenge to Napoli, even on the road.

Latest news

Napoli

📣 Napoli's head coach Antonio Conte, following their 3-1 victory over Atalanta, emphasized the trust within the team: "We have a very strong bond. I am completely transparent with the players, I don't wear masks, and I always speak honestly. I am who I am." The coach also expressed satisfaction with the performance: "We are pleased with this win and the way we achieved it—especially the first half, where we maintained a high tempo and put pressure on Atalanta, a very strong opponent."

🚫 Napoli continue to deal with a lengthy injury list. Alex Meret and Kevin De Bruyne won't return until late January—the former is recovering from a foot fracture, while the latter is treating a thigh injury. André-Frank Zambo Anguissa is sidelined until mid-January due to a muscle issue. Billy Gilmour and Romelu Lukaku will be available in early December. Leonardo Spinazzola's participation remains doubtful due to a muscle injury.

Qarabag

📣 Qarabag's head coach Gurban Gurbanov celebrated his team's crucial 4-2 victory over Sumgayit, congratulating the players on securing the vital three points: "Congratulations to my players. We secured important three points... It was a great, engaging match with a true football atmosphere on the pitch." Gurbanov also commented on Montiel's condition, who made his first start following a long-term injury: "Montiel needs time to regain his form. Even if he doesn't start against Napoli, he will have a chance to feature during the match."

🚫 Qarabag face almost no squad issues: backup goalkeeper Shahruddin Magomedaliyev has a minor injury, and his participation remains uncertain – a decision will be made closer to the match.

⚽️ Goal Predictions

⚽️ Goal Predictions

Napoli have recently encountered significant issues in their attacking play. Over the last five matches, they have netted just four goals, with three of those coming in their most recent clash against Atalanta (3-1)—a team currently sitting in 13th place in the Serie A standings. In other encounters, the Partenopei have looked lackluster up front. Qarabag, on the other hand, have shown a relatively solid defensive performance; for instance, in their last Champions League outing, they held Chelsea to a 2-2 draw—a team that trails only Arsenal and Manchester City in goals scored in the Premier League. Considering these factors, betting on Napoli under 2.5 goals seems a reasonable prediction.

🚩 Corner Predictions

While Napoli are among the Serie A leaders in corners earned, matches involving them surprisingly feature a low number of corners overall. The under 9.5 corners bet has hit in Napoli’s last six fixtures. This is largely because Napoli tend to control the game, preventing opponents from approaching their penalty area, which keeps the total corner count low. This pattern should hold true against Qarabag, who are expected to play defensively.