Germany vs Slovakia Prediction 18 November 2025

🔊 Which national team will secure a direct ticket to the 2026 World Cup? Heading into the final round of qualifiers, both Germany and Slovakia have 12 points. The Germans hold the advantage due to a superior goal difference, meaning a draw in Leipzig at the Red Bull Arena would suffice for them. The visitors, however, are compelled to play for a win. They already know how to beat the "Die Mannschaft." On the flip side, the second place in the group is secure, so the runner-up will enter the playoffs for another World Cup spot. Despite all these factors, Germany are considered clear favorites in the upcoming clash, but we'll explore various scenarios to make an insightful prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 Over the past 18 years, these teams have faced each other in two official head-to-head matches. At Euro 2016, Germany thrashed Slovakia in the Round of 16, netting three unanswered goals. From that lineup, Joshua Kimmich, Jonathan Tah, and Leroy Sané remain with the national team. The first two played against Slovakia in the opening round of the current qualifying tournament. It's not accurate to say Julian Nagelsmann fielded an experimental squad, yet the "Eagles" failed to break through the opposition's defense. Slovakia, on the other hand, launched dangerous counterattacks and capitalized better on their chances (2-0). Even Dávid Hancko found the back of the net, despite not scoring for Atletico this season.

Germany Team Overview

⚫ Julian Nagelsmann has been experimenting extensively with the German national team. This led to a disappointing performance in the UEFA Nations League Finals, with home defeats to Portugal and France. Their World Cup 2026 qualifying campaign also started on a sour note, with three consecutive losses prompting discussions about a possible managerial change. However, in their subsequent matches, Die Mannschaft avoided further slip-ups, although victories over Northern Ireland (3-1, 1-0) were far from convincing. In the away fixture, the opposition even managed more shots on goal, which were guarded by Oliver Baumann. The only emphatic win came at home against Luxembourg (4-0), but the visitors were down to ten men by the 20th minute. This raises questions as Germany took 31 shots but scored only four goals.

⚪ Recently, Germany faced Luxembourg again, and this time their advantage on the road wasn't as pronounced. The hosts counter-attacked effectively and had enough chances to score (xG – 1.08), yet failed to find the net. For Die Adler, Nick Woltemade shone with a brace, showcasing his development at Newcastle. This victory allowed them to draw level on points with Slovakia.

Slovakia Team Overview

🔵 The Slovak national team may not be filled with stars, but they're formidable in their cohesive team play under Francesco Calzona. The era of Marek Hamšík is long gone, and since then, no player of similar individual brilliance has emerged. However, the "Falcons" excel through their collective effort. Under Calzona's guidance, Slovakia put up a strong fight against England at Euro 2024, only losing after 120 minutes. In the current campaign, they've faced tough luck again against British teams, suffering a 0-2 defeat to Northern Ireland in Belfast. Surprisingly, they've managed to keep clean sheets in other matches, including a game against Germany.

⚪ Recently, Slovakia narrowly avenged their loss to Northern Ireland with a 1-0 win in Košice. Tomáš Bobček scored the only goal just three minutes after coming off the bench. Remarkably, this was the debut for the 24-year-old forward with the senior national team. The hosts dominated after the break, even scoring two goals that were rightfully overturned by VAR. Nevertheless, the victory was inconsequential from a tournament perspective. Even with a draw, they would still need to aim for a win in Leipzig.

Latest news

Germany

🎙️ Julian Nagelsmann commented on the win over Luxembourg: "We're very pleased to have secured three points; ultimately, that's what's important. Football is a results-driven sport, and we achieved our goal. However, it was more challenging than we anticipated… We had numerous chances but didn't convert enough to settle the match. In the second half, we showed much more commitment and scored two quality goals. We deserved to concede but managed not to. We were fortunate; we'll gladly take the three points."

❌ Julian Nagelsmann didn't find room in Germany's squad for Maximilian Mittelstädt, Robin Koch, Robert Andrich, Angelo Stiller, and other experienced players. Additionally, Antonio Rüdiger, Jamal Musiala, Kai Havertz, and Niclas Füllkrug are injured. Joshua Kimmich and Nico Schlotterbeck arrived in Luxembourg with injuries. They might play in the upcoming match.

✅ On the bright side, there are new faces in the squad. For instance, Malick Thiaw made his debut for Die Mannschaft against Luxembourg. Kevin Schade played in the tournament for the first time, and Leroy Sané, who hadn't been called up in a while, started.

Slovakia

🎙️ Slovakia's captain, Milan Škriniar, shared his thoughts on the victory over Northern Ireland: “We are thrilled with this achievement. From the very first minute, we set our sights on winning. We demonstrated quality and fighting spirit on the pitch. Even after disallowed goals, we believed we could score, and we eventually did. Moreover, we kept a clean sheet in defense, which is simply fantastic. We're delighted that 'Bobo' scored the decisive goal; he's very happy about it too. We're confident about reaching the playoffs, and we're excited about it, but why not try to spring a surprise now? We'll do everything possible to finish first, even though it will be challenging in Germany.”

❌ Slovakia face no major losses. Only Ľubomír Šatka, Adrián Kaprálik, Mario Sauer, and Tomáš Suslov are sidelined due to injuries. On the bright side, Stanislav Lobotka has recovered and Ondrej Duda has served his suspension.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The referee for the match is François Letexier from France. This season, he has officiated seven domestic league games, averaging 5.14 yellow cards per match. In two international fixtures, he showed more leniency, issuing a total of four cautions. In the Champions League, Letexier also keeps the yellow cards in check, averaging 3.2 per game.

In the current tournament, Germany tend to receive more yellow cards (1.4 compared to 1.2). Matches involving Germany average four cautions, while Slovakia's games see a slightly higher average of 4.2. Their first-round head-to-head also stayed within this trend, with both teams combining for three yellows. It's unlikely we'll see excessive roughness in the upcoming match. Considering the referee's statistics, a bet on total yellow cards under 4 seems reasonable.

⚽ Goal Prediction

Germany have conceded just three goals in this tournament, which is relatively low for them. Slovakia only failed to keep a clean sheet in their away game against Northern Ireland. Therefore, the forthcoming match is unlikely to be high-scoring. Adding to this is the fact that in nine consecutive matches involving Slovakia, no more than three goals were scored. Thus, betting on total goals under 3.5 appears justified.

🚩 Corner Prediction

In the tournament, Germany take more corners (5.4 compared to 4.2). They allow their opponents an average of 3.6 corners against them. The first-round encounter was no exception, with Slovakia earning five corners. Considering their previous World Cup qualifying campaign, Slovakia have managed at least three corners in 12 consecutive matches. Given that the visitors are likely to be trailing during the upcoming match and need a win, betting on total Slovakia corners over 2.5 makes sense.

Germany are the favorites heading into this matchup, but they haven't been as dominant in this tournament as expected. Slovakia boast a solid team capable of holding their own for extended periods, so we anticipate a hard-fought victory for the hosts, perhaps a narrow 2-1 win.

Bookmakers are so confident in Germany's win that a rout seems possible, yet their only convincing victory came against Luxembourg, who played most of the match with ten men. Moreover, Germany almost conceded in that game, as noted by their head coach. If Slovakia manage to score, a comprehensive win for Germany seems unlikely, especially since the "Falcons" have kept clean sheets in four of their five tournament matches. Therefore, our key betting suggestion is Slovakia with a +2 handicap.