Ukraine vs Iceland Prediction 17 November 2025

🔊 Who will make it to the playoffs? We're in for one of the most thrilling matches of the final round of European World Cup qualifiers. In Warsaw, at the "Marshal Józef Piłsudski Polish Army Stadium," Ukraine will face off against Iceland. Both teams have 7 points, but Iceland are ahead on goal difference, meaning a draw might be enough for the visitors. Let's not forget their high-scoring head-to-head in Reykjavik ended with a victory for the "Yellow-Blues." Will the "Vikings" seek revenge or play for a draw? Either approach could potentially deny Ukraine a spot in the World Cup.

Head-to-Head

📊 On October 10, the Ukrainians triumphed over Iceland with a 5-3 victory on the road. By halftime, the "Yellow and Blues" were already up 3-1, thanks to a goal from Hutsulyak and a brace by Malinovskyi. In the second half, the "Vikings" managed to level the score by the 75th minute, but faltered in the closing stages: five minutes before full time, Kalyuzhnyi found the net, and just two minutes before the final whistle, Ochertko sealed the result. For the hosts, Mikael Ellertsson scored once, while Albert Gudmundsson netted twice.

Ukraine Team Overview

🟡 Just three days after their victory on October 13 in Reykjavik, the "yellow and blues" led by Artem Rebrov hosted Azerbaijan in Krakow and narrowly secured three points (2-1). Midway through the first half, Hutsulyak opened the scoring with an assist from Malinovskyi, but the Ukrainians conceded a goal just before halftime. In the middle of the second half, Hutsulyak repaid the favor to Malinovskyi, and it was the Genoa player who put the team ahead. Following these October fixtures, Ukraine sat in second place, three points ahead of Iceland.

🔵 In the November cycle, the "yellow and blues" traveled to Paris to challenge the Group D leaders, France, and sought revenge for their home defeat in September (0-2). However, Rebrov's side stood little chance (0-4). Although the first half ended goalless, statistics show that the French completely dominated the game, with all goals coming in the second half. Meanwhile, Iceland won their parallel match and drew level with the "yellow and blues," pushing Ukraine down to third due to an inferior goal difference (8:11). Now, the team needs nothing less than a win to secure second place and keep their hopes alive for a spot in the March playoffs.

Iceland Team Overview

🔵 In October, Arnar Gunnlaugsson's squad didn't hang their heads after a home defeat to Ukraine. Next up was France, who, despite missing several key players, were still favorites due to their squad depth. The "Vikings" were outmatched in most metrics but managed to earn a point with a 2-2 draw. Iceland went into halftime with the lead thanks to a goal from Viktor Pálsson, but after the 68th minute in the second half, they found themselves needing to equalize, which they did two minutes later through Kristján Hlynsson. At that point, after three rounds, Iceland had four points and trailed Ukraine by three points at the end of October.

⚪ Everything changed on November 13th: while Ukraine were thrashed by France in a parallel match, Iceland took care of business against Azerbaijan on the road, winning 2-0 with first-half goals from Guðmundsson and Ingason. This result brought the "Vikings" level on points with Ukraine, but they moved up to second place thanks to a superior goal difference (13:9). Now, as they head to Warsaw, they don't need to go all-out for a win—a draw could serve as a form of revenge for their loss in Reykjavik, eliminating Ukraine's World Cup hopes.

Latest news

Ukraine

🎙️ Artem Rebrov's reaction after the defeat to France: "I think there were two key moments. The first was the penalty that should have been awarded against France. From what I saw, their player went in with an open leg, and in my opinion, it should have been a penalty. But the referee saw it differently. Then there was the penalty given against us. Yes, those were two critical episodes. However, I don't believe they alone determined the outcome. France created a lot of chances in the second half, and fatigue clearly affected our players' performance. I think everyone understood that today's game against France wasn't decisive. I believe the players approached it with the right mindset. But I can't say anyone slacked off. Everyone knows the next match is crucial. I'm confident the guys will be fully focused and are already preparing for it."

💊 After the match with France, everyone is fit and ready for the upcoming game.

Iceland

🎙️ Arnar Gunnlaugsson after the victory in Baku: "We achieved the result thanks to the performance we showed in the first half. However, in the second half, the Azerbaijan national team played better. Nevertheless, we secured the necessary result without conceding. The Azerbaijan team is physically well-prepared. Compared to the first match, it was clear that the team is progressing and on the right track. I believe your team needs time. I'm confident that victories will come in the near future. I expected to see the level of play they showed in the second half from the start of the match."

💊 All called-up players are preparing for the upcoming match in Poland.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

Anthony Taylor has been appointed as the main referee for the match in Warsaw. The English official has averaged 2.5 yellow cards per game over his last 10 matches. In their head-to-head clash a month ago, the "Yellow-Blues" had the upper hand in terms of cautions, with a 4:1 advantage. Overall, after five rounds, Ukraine have accumulated 12 yellow cards, while Iceland have 7. We opt for Iceland's individual total under 3 yellow cards as this has been consistent in all five of the Vikings' qualifying matches.

⚽ Goal Prediction

Ukraine have conceded in each of their five matches and failed to score twice, both times against France. Iceland have found the net against all opponents, regardless of whether they played at home or away. Therefore, we believe both teams will score (yes).

🚩 Corner Prediction

Returning to their head-to-head encounter, Iceland had the edge on corners with a 4:2 advantage. After five rounds, Ukraine have accumulated a total of 22 corners (4.4 per match), while Iceland have 13 (2.6 per match). We choose Ukraine to win on corners.

This is a crucial clash for both teams. Although the Ukrainians secured a victory in Reykjavik a month ago, it's important not to assume that Ukraine will easily overcome their opponents in this nominally home game. Firstly, Ukraine hasn't played on home soil for a while, and despite the support from their fans, it's unlikely they'll feel at home in Poland. Nonetheless, Rebrov's squad must aim for victory, and we anticipate they will set the pace and apply pressure on Iceland's goal.

Iceland are no pushovers; they possess the resilient Scandinavian spirit they've demonstrated over the years. Even if a draw suffices for them, it doesn't mean they'll park the bus and only defend. It's worth noting they've scored at least one goal in each of their last five qualifiers, while Ukraine have conceded in all of theirs. Nerves and psychology play a significant role here. Therefore, we predict that Iceland will score, but we expect Ukraine to come out stronger and advance to the playoffs with a 2-1 win.