TIPS - Italy VS Norway

[(Italy) Strength]:
1. Fiorentina forward Moise Kean withdrew from the national team due to injury and was replaced by Bologna forward Nicolo Cambiaghi. The 24-year-old Nicolo Cambiaghi made his national team debut in October against Israel and has contributed 2 goals and 4 assists in 15 matches this season.
2. Italy defeated Moldova 2-0 in the last group match, securing their 6th consecutive win in the group stage, demonstrating their undeniable overall strength.
3. Italy has scored 18 goals in their last 5 matches, showcasing their full offensive firepower with an average of over 3 goals per game, reflecting an outstanding overall performance.
4. Italy have achieved 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 10 home matches, with a 60% win rate, indicating a decent ability to capitalize on home advantage.

[(Italy) Neutral]:
1. Italy currently rank second in the group, trailing Norway by 17 goals in goal difference. Even if they win this match, it is almost impossible to overturn the goal difference gap.
2. Italy have conceded 5 goals in their last 5 matches, showing some improvement in defense compared to before, but there is still room for further progress.
3. Italy have seen 6 matches with OVER in their last 8 games, indicating an open style of play. It is worth paying attention to the Over/Under trend in this match.

[(Norway) Strength]:
1. Norway forward Erling Haaland scored another brace in the last match, bringing his total to 14 goals in 7 World Cup qualifiers, leading the European scoring charts with an average of 2 goals per game.
2. Norway secured a 4-1 victory over Estonia in the last group match, completing a perfect 7-match winning streak in the group stage. With a 3-point lead and a significant goal difference advantage over Italy, they have effectively secured their qualification to the World Cup main tournament in advance.
3. Norway have scored 33 goals in the first 7 group matches, demonstrating strong offensive intent and undeniable scoring ability.
4. Norway have conceded 3 goals in their last 5 matches, showing solid defensive performance as well.
5. Norway have achieved 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 away matches, with a 60% win rate, indicating their capability to perform well on the road should not be underestimated.
6. Norway have won 3 of their last 4 away matches in AH, showing a decent away win rate, with trends aligning well with expectations.

[(Norway) Weakness]:
1. In the 5 previous encounters between the two teams, Norway have 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, suggesting some psychological pressure in terms of head-to-head records.

[Tips]:
Italy defeated Moldova 2-0 in the last round, achieving 6 consecutive wins in the group stage.

Their offensive performance in the recent 5 matches, scoring 18 goals with an average of over 3 goals per game, is considered strong. Their record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in the last 10 home matches also demonstrates decent home performance.

However, they currently rank second in the group, and the huge 17-goal difference with Norway makes it almost impossible for them to challenge for the top spot even if they win this match.

On the other hand, Norway secured a 4-1 victory over Estonia in the last round, completing a perfect 7-match winning streak in the group stage and securing their qualification to the main tournament of the World Cup early.

Their offensive and defensive stats of 33 goals scored and only 4 conceded in the first 7 rounds are highly dominant. Additionally, their record of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 away matches confirms their solid performance on the road.

Although Norway have a historical record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in 5 previous encounters, this Nordic powerhouse, led by Haaland (14 goals in 7 World Cup qualifiers), now boasts a more mature offensive and defensive system with strong impact.

Italy's defense may struggle to contain their efficient counterattacks.

Overall, Norway are more likely to remain unbeaten away from home.

[Recommended]:
Norway (+0.5)