Turkey vs Bulgaria Prediction 16 November 2025

🔊 Will the Turks repeat their thrashing from a month ago? In October, Arda Güler and his squad dismantled the Bulgarian national team in Sofia. The upcoming match will take place at the “Timsah Arena” in Bursa, leaving the Bulgarians with slim chances for a positive result. Moreover, Turkey has a clear competitive motivation—victory secures them second place in the group and, consequently, a spot in the playoffs.

Head-to-Head

📊 The match on October 11 marked the first official meeting between the national teams of Turkey and Bulgaria in the 21st century. The opening 45 minutes ended in a draw, but in the second half, Bulgaria conceded five unanswered goals, resulting in a 6-1 thrashing. Turkey's young stars, Arda Güler (1 goal, 2 assists) and Kenan Yıldız (scored twice), were particularly impressive.

Turkey Team Overview

Turkey find themselves exactly where they were expected to be in the standings at the start of the qualifiers. While it is theoretically possible to challenge for the top spot, the 6-0 thrashing by Spain in September has created a significant goal difference gap between the teams, and this is the primary tiebreaker when points are level.

However, following that debacle, Vincenzo Montella's protégés have started dismantling their opponents. Besides Bulgaria, Georgia also conceded a flurry of goals during the previous international break, losing 4-1, which was their first defeat by more than two goals in over a year. We've already praised the young talents, so let's give credit to the veterans as well—Hakan Çalhanoğlu provided two assists in two consecutive matches.

Bulgaria Team Overview

The Bulgarian national team was initially considered the underdog of the group, so their position at the bottom comes as no surprise. However, the situation seems utterly hopeless. Their goal difference of 1-15 is quite embarrassing. In fact, after Ilian Iliev's dismissal in September, things have only gotten worse.

Under Aleksandar Dimitrov, the "Lions" have conceded ten goals in just two matches. Looking at the statistics, it's clear they were fortunate to lose to Spain by a relatively modest score of 0-4. The dominance of "La Furia Roja" in shots (33-3) and expected goals (3.78-0.23) was overwhelming. The Bulgarians had possession for only 22% of the match.

Latest news

Turkey

🎙 A major scandal has erupted in Turkey involving betting. Several footballers have been handed suspensions. National team head coach Vincenzo Montella responded by telling his players: "Block out the noise, focus solely on the pitch. We have two crucial matches ahead. Concentrate on the games against Bulgaria and Spain. In the match against Bulgaria on Saturday, I don't want any mistakes."

❌ Winger Yunus Akgün was not called up to the national team due to injury, while another Galatasaray player, Eren Elmali, is among those caught up in the betting scandal. Consequently, he has been dropped from the squad. These are the known losses for the Turkish national team at this time.

Bulgaria

🚑 Bulgaria face more injury setbacks than Turkey. Four players are sidelined: Anton Nedyalkov (Ludogorets), Emil Tsenov (Orenburg), Petko Hristov (Spezia), and Stanislav Ivanov (Ludogorets). Arguably, all except the latter could have been in contention for a starting spot.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by Nick Walsh. The Scottish referee is known for his strictness, averaging 5.6 yellow cards over his last ten matches. Both teams also have notable averages, with Bulgaria leading 2 to 1.7. Considering these stats and the fact that the previous head-to-head saw three yellow cards between them, it’s puzzling why the odds are so high for over 2.5 yellow cards. Nick Walsh hasn’t shown fewer than three yellow cards in almost three months.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

There's an intriguing trend worth noting for a Turkey goal in the first half. The "Crescent-Stars" have scored before halftime in 6 of their last 7 home World Cup qualifiers. Meanwhile, Bulgaria has conceded in 6 of their last 7 qualifying matches during this period. It's hard to imagine the visitors holding off the initial Turkish onslaught.

🚩 Corner Prediction

In their home match against Turkey, Bulgaria earned five corners, but their overall average is quite low—just 1.8 corners per game. It's no surprise that Bulgaria has taken fewer than 2.5 corners in six consecutive away World Cup qualifiers. Given their lack of tournament motivation, it's doubtful that the "Lions" will break this unwelcome pattern.

Not only do the Turks significantly outclass their opponents, but other factors also work in their favor—home ground advantage and the crucial need for a win to secure a top-2 spot. Frankly, we see no chances for Bulgaria here. We believe the visitors' notably weak defense will falter once again, and their attacking opportunities will be minimal against the fervent Turkish fans. Therefore, we anticipate a commanding victory for the hosts with a scoreline of 4-0. Based on this, we are betting on Turkey's individual total over 2.5 goals.