Poland vs Netherlands Prediction 15 November 2025

🔊 Poland, currently second in Group G, are set to host the group leaders, the Netherlands. The Poles trail the "Oranje" by three points, but even a victory in the upcoming match in Warsaw won't elevate them to the top spot due to the visitors' superior goal difference. The Dutch only need a draw to secure their direct ticket to the World Cup. Meanwhile, Poland have already guaranteed themselves a place in the playoffs, though there's still a theoretical chance they could climb to first place. For our prediction below, we'll analyze the form of both teams and suggest the best betting options.

Head-to-Head

📊 The upcoming clash is intriguing, as the teams shared the spoils on September 4 in Rotterdam with a 1-1 draw. In the first half, right-back Denzel Dumfries opened the scoring after an assist from Memphis Depay. Ten minutes before full-time, the red-and-whites' right-back Matty Cash leveled the score.

Poland Team Overview

🔴 In October, Jan Urban's squad played two matches and secured victories in both. The first was a friendly home game against New Zealand on October 9, where Piotr Zieliński scored the only goal (1-0). Three days later, they faced Lithuania in Kaunas for a World Cup qualifier and achieved a comfortable win thanks to goals from Sebastian Szymański and Robert Lewandowski (2-0).

⚪ After six rounds, Poland have accumulated 13 points with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. They boast a positive goal difference of 10:4 (+6). Despite upcoming matches against the Netherlands and Malta, Poland have already secured at least a playoff spot. Finland, in third place, trail by three points and cannot catch the "Red and Whites," as they have 10 points and a negative goal difference (-5). Poland still hold a slim chance to clinch the top spot. To achieve this, they need to defeat both the Netherlands and Malta in their November fixtures and hope for the Dutch to drop points in their home match against Lithuania—a scenario that's hard to imagine. Nevertheless, on home soil, Poland are capable of taking points off Koeman's side, as they did in Rotterdam.

Netherlands Team Overview

🟠 The "Oranje" have secured victories in both of their October fixtures, each ending with a 4-0 scoreline. They first demolished Malta on the road, with Cody Gakpo netting a brace, Tijjani Reijnders, and Memphis Depay finding the back of the net. They then confidently dispatched Finland in Amsterdam, thanks to goals from Donyell Malen, Virgil van Dijk, Gakpo, and a penalty from Depay.

⚫ The Netherlands boast five wins and a draw against Poland, amassing 16 points with an impressive goal difference of 22:3. This means that even a defeat in Warsaw won't drop the Dutch to second place, given their significant advantage in goal difference—the primary tiebreaker when teams are level on points. However, the Oranje are keen to avoid a loss in Poland as they aim to approach their clash with Lithuania in a relaxed mindset, having already secured World Cup qualification and steering clear of any unnecessary pressure.

Latest news

Poland

❌ Jan Urban has announced changes to the squad for the November training camp. Łukasz Skorupski (hamstring injury), Krzysztof Piątek (adductor muscle injury), and Jan Bednarek (knee ligament strain) will miss the matches due to injuries. In their place, goalkeeper Mateusz Kochalski (Qarabag) and defender Bartosz Bereszyński (Palermo) have been called up.

Netherlands

❌ Wout Weghorst has left the Netherlands' training camp due to mild symptoms of illness and will not play against Poland. As a precaution, Koeman has called up Emmanuel Emegha from Strasbourg. The squad now consists of 25 players. Additionally, Burnley defender Quilindschy Hartman has fallen ill and will not travel with the team to Warsaw.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The chief referee for the match at the "National Stadium" in Warsaw is Italian Maurizio Mariani. In his last ten matches, he has averaged four yellow cards per game.

In their head-to-head clash in Rotterdam, both teams played with utmost caution, not receiving a single yellow card. In the other five group matches, Poland accumulated a total of eight yellow cards, while the Netherlands collected five. A prudent choice here would be a cautious total under 4 yellow cards: this bet has been successful in four out of Poland's six matches and five of the Netherlands' six games.

⚽ Goals Prediction

Poland have scored in 17 consecutive home matches (including friendlies). The last time the "White and Reds" failed to score at home was on September 22, 2022, against the Netherlands (0-2 in the Nations League). The Dutch have found the net in their last ten official matches consecutively. It stands to reason that both teams will manage to score in Warsaw. Prediction: both teams to score (yes).

🚩 Corners Prediction

In the September meeting in Rotterdam, the advantage in corners went to the Dutch, 7 to 4. On average, after six rounds, Poland delivers 4 corners per match, while the Netherlands average 4.4. The pick: Netherlands' individual total under 6.5 corners, which has hit in six of their last seven matches.

Poland are on a home winning streak, securing five consecutive victories (four in qualifiers and one friendly against Moldova, winning 2-0). Excluding their penalty shootout loss to Spain on March 23 in the Nations League quarterfinals, the Netherlands have gone over a year without a defeat, remaining unbeaten in their last ten matches.

Since 2020, these teams have clashed six times, with Poland failing to secure a win: two draws and four losses mark their record, with both draws occurring in the Netherlands while they have always been defeated on home soil by the "Oranje." Our prediction: the Netherlands to score over 1.5 goals and an away win with a scoreline of 2-1, considering the depth of the squad and the quality of the Dutch players.