Norway vs Estonia Prediction 14 November 2025

🔊 Can Norway secure their spot in the 2026 World Cup in the next round of qualifiers? The Scandinavian team currently tops Group I, three points ahead of Italy. If they manage to defeat Estonia on November 13, the match against the Azzurri will become a mere formality, given the significant goal difference between the teams. Will the Vikings clinch their first World Cup berth in 28 years at their home ground, Ullevaal Stadium? Let's assess the odds in our editorial prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 The national teams are set to face each other for the second time in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers and in their history overall. Notably, Estonia are the only team in Group I to concede fewer than three goals against Norway. The match in Tallinn almost turned into a shocker. The visitors managed only three shots on target, while the Estonians had chances to score more, hitting the woodwork twice.

Norway Team Overview

Norway's impressive form is evident as they stand among the three unbeaten teams in European qualification, alongside Spain and England. Moreover, the "Drills" boast the highest average scoring rate at 4.8 goals per game. Delving deeper, Ståle Solbakken's squad has secured commanding victories in 7 out of their last 10 official matches. With a perfect record in Group I and a win over their main rival for the top spot, Italy, the Norwegians could clinch their spot with a victory against Estonia. The "Vikings" lead the "Azzurri" by three points and hold a goal difference advantage of 16.

The key figure behind Norway's remarkable results is Erling Haaland. The "Vikings'" record-breaking scoring coincides with the Manchester City striker's sensational form. This year, he hasn't missed a single match for the national team. With 12 goals, Erling is the top scorer across all continental qualifiers for the World Cup. He failed to find the net in just 3 out of 26 appearances for both club and country, amassing a total of 35 goals during this period.

Estonia Team Overview

Estonia's main achievement is avoiding the bottom spot in their group. They managed to collect four points through a win and a draw against Moldova (3-2; 1-1). Another commendable effort was their closely contested match in Tallinn against Norway (0-1). Jürgen Henn's side was the only team to concede fewer than three goals to the "Vikings," allowing just three shots on target. Yes, the Norwegians still outperformed the hosts by more than 11 times in expected goals (2.72 to 0.23), but it's worth noting that Estonia hit the woodwork twice.

Estonia doesn't shine in terms of scoring, averaging just one goal per seven qualifying matches. Nonetheless, the "Blues" have managed to score consolation goals against Israel and even Italy. The team's top scorer in the qualifiers is Mattias Käit with three goals. Interestingly, the midfielder has yet to score for his new club, Swiss side Thun, this season. In contrast, Rauno Sappinen leads the Estonian league with Flora and tops the scoring charts with 20 goals. However, for the national team, his stats are more modest—two goals in six matches.

Latest news

Norway

🎙 Norway's latest result was a rather unexpected draw against New Zealand (1-1). Despite the friendly nature of the match, one of the team's players faced harsh criticism from the head coach. Here's how Ståle Solbakken commented on Manchester City midfielder Oscar Bobb's performance: "He played very poorly in the first half. He was lacking in every aspect. He held onto the ball too long, took up odd positions, and pressed poorly. He did this well in training and was very good at it. But if you ask Oscar, I think he would say that the first half was his weakest performance for the national team. The second half was even worse. He has been very, very good in almost every match, whether playing higher up or deeper on the field, so there's no concern."

❌ Martin Ødegaard is missing his second national team call-up. The Arsenal midfielder has been dealing with a knee issue since mid-October. Brentford defender Kristoffer Ajer might also miss out, as he sat out the last Premier League round due to a back injury.

Estonia

🎙 The head coach of the Estonia national team shared his thoughts on the draw with Moldova in their latest 2026 World Cup qualifier. "It was clear that we played for the win. We stepped onto the pitch not just to avoid losing, but to secure a victory. Up until the 60th minute, the game was quite well under our control, but after several substitutions, when many young players came on, we might have lost our structure and started playing somewhat chaotically. We lacked decisiveness, and of course, inexperience in certain positions could have played a part. Especially towards the end, when we needed to apply significant pressure on goal, we kept missing the moment for a decisive strike," said Jürgen Henn.

❌ Estonia will play the current World Cup qualifying cycle without two key players. Belgian Gent defender Maksim Paskotsi and Swiss Thun midfielder Mattias Käit picked up injuries for their clubs just before the international break. Both players started all seven qualification matches. Käit is also the national team's top scorer with three goals.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The main referee for the match is Matej Jug from Slovenia. Over his last 10 matches, he has averaged 5.2 yellow cards per game. Estonia are not shy about picking up cards, averaging 2.6 yellows over seven qualifying games, while the Norwegians have accumulated six cautions in their six encounters. The "Blues" approach this game with some key absences in midfield and defense. Additionally, Jürgen Henn has often pointed out the disorganization of his side due to their youthful lineup. Given these factors, a bet on Estonia to win the yellow card count seems reasonable.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

For goals, let's consider Norway's home performances as a benchmark. The last five official matches for the "Vikings" at home have ended in routs, with an average of 5.4 goals scored per game. Estonia will be missing two key players, one a defender and the other a midfielder. However, keeping in mind the unconvincing win by the Scandinavians in their first meeting, we'll slightly lower their scoring expectation. We predict that Norway's total goals will exceed 3.5.

🚩 Corner Prediction

There's little doubt as to which end of the pitch will see most of the action. Even in Tallinn, the Norwegians dominated possession for more than 60% of the time. However, it's worth noting that the "Vikings" have not delivered more than seven corners in any of their qualifiers. Without their key playmaker, Martin Ødegaard, surpassing this mark seems unlikely. Therefore, a bet on Norway's total corners being under 8.5 is highly probable.

The odds for a Norway victory are rapidly approaching certainty. The only question is how many more goals the "Drills" will score compared to their opponent on home soil. Without their top scorer, Mattias Käit, Estonia's attacking options are limited. They will also be missing key defender Maksim Paskotsi, which will weaken their defense. However, we should keep in mind that they managed to score against Italy, thanks to their second-highest goal scorer, Rauno Sappinen, who is available to play. So, we can't rule out a surprise goal from Estonia. Nonetheless, it's highly likely that Norway's home match will end in another rout, perhaps with a scoreline of 5-1. Therefore, we are betting on over 4.5 goals.