Azerbaijan vs Iceland Prediction 14 November 2025

🔊 Can Iceland secure a spot in the playoffs for the 2026 World Cup qualifiers? They're just three points behind second place in Group D, with a crucial clash against their main rival, Ukraine, looming. But before that, the "Vikings" must overcome Azerbaijan, who are virtually out of contention. This encounter will take place at the "Bakcell Arena" in Baku, where the "Milli" earned their only points of the campaign in a match against Ukraine. Can they put up a strong fight against Iceland? Our editorial team provides an insightful prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 The national teams are set to face off for the second time in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers and in their overall history. The first encounter ended in a dominant victory for Iceland in Reykjavik (5-0). The hosts overwhelmed their opponents with possession (71% to 29%) and allowed only two shots on their goal, while they themselves took 14 shots with a total xG of 2.6.

Azerbaijan Team Overview

The World Cup qualifiers kicked off disastrously for Azerbaijan with a heavy defeat away to Iceland (0-5). This proved to be the final straw for the local football federation, which dismissed head coach Fernando Santos. Under his leadership, the team hadn't won since July 2024, when they defeated Kazakhstan in a friendly (3-2). Ayhan Abbasov stepped in as interim coach, and under his guidance, the "Milli" immediately secured their first point in the qualifiers against Ukraine (1-1). However, subsequent defeats to France (0-3) and the same "yellow and blues" (1-2) have all but dashed Azerbaijan's hopes of advancing from the group.

Mathematically, Azerbaijan can still aim for second place in Group D. But trailing Ukraine by six points and with a dismal goal difference of -9, dreams of the World Cup are likely postponed indefinitely. The latest away defeat to the "yellow and blues" (1-2) further dented their chances. Despite the scoreline, Azerbaijan had few opportunities, managing eight shots with a total xG of just 0.43. The only goal for the "Milli" was ironically scored by Ukrainian defender Vitaliy Mykolenko.

Iceland Team Overview

The "Vikings" kicked off their World Cup qualification campaign with an impressive thrashing of Azerbaijan, winning 5-0. However, that victory remains their only win in the group so far. In their next two matches, Arnar Gunnlaugsson's squad put up a fight but ultimately fell to France (1-2) and Ukraine (3-5). They managed to earn their last points in the qualification during the final match of the October cycle, drawing again with the "Les Bleus" (2-2). With such scoring prowess, Iceland are the most prolific team in Group D with 11 goals. Hence, their chances of competing for second place with Ukraine remain high, especially considering the head-to-head clash after the game against Azerbaijan.

Iceland's performance against France wasn't remarkable. Despite playing at home in Reykjavik, the "Vikings" ceded control to the visitors, with possession stats showing 30% to 70% in favor of the French. However, Iceland were clinical with their chances: just four shots on target resulted in an expected goals tally of 1.12 and two actual goals. The standout player for Iceland was Elias Olafsson. The Midtjylland goalkeeper, despite conceding twice, prevented 2.6 expected goals from shots on target and made six crucial saves.

Latest news

Azerbaijan

🎙 The head coach of the Azerbaijan national team reflected on their recent defeat to Ukraine and shared his future plans. "We knew it was going to be a tough match. The players were feeling fatigued, but they showed character. Playing against two strong opponents in three days is crucial for our future. We asked the players to be confident and composed, and I believe they managed that. We might have picked up points, but we didn't capitalize on our chances. With this team, we look to the future with optimism. We have potential, and if there's desire and belief, the results will surely come. We have two home games ahead, and we'll aim to add to our points tally," said Ayhan Abbasov.

❌ Mahir Emreli is absent from the squad list for the November World Cup qualifying cycle. He sustained an injury playing for Germany's Kaiserslautern in the 12th round of the 2. Bundesliga.

Iceland

🎙 Iceland's head coach has shared his expectations for the November World Cup qualifying matches. "The away games against Azerbaijan and Ukraine will be tough and essentially decisive. The point we earned against France was extremely important. Now, the French need to beat Ukraine, and they won't be keen on traveling to Baku for a must-win result. For us, the upcoming matches will be quite different from our home games. We'll have less possession, but our team has learned to adapt to any conditions. We can now adjust to any situation and play at different tempos," said Arnar Gunnlaugsson.

❌ Iceland's squad list once again does not include Orri Óskarsson. Last year's top scorer for the team (with five goals) is still recovering from a hip injury sustained while playing for Real Sociedad in the third round of La Liga. Additionally, the head coach will be without winger Atti Magnusson.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by Nikola Dabanovic from Montenegro. Over his last 10 matches, he averages 2.6 yellow cards per game. However, encounters involving both national teams tend to be more intense. Azerbaijan have the edge with an average of 4.4 yellow cards over their last five games, while Iceland average 3.4 over the same span. Considering Iceland need to win all their remaining matches, the tension in Baku is expected to be high. The passionate local players will undoubtedly contribute to this intensity. Our prediction: total yellow cards over 3.5.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Both teams are not known for their defensive stability. Azerbaijan have conceded just two more goals than Iceland in their four qualifying matches (11 to 9). Despite their attacking struggles, "Milli" managed to score twice against a strong Ukrainian side. In 6 out of their last 9 home games, both teams have found the net, as have in 7 out of 9 matches involving the Scandinavians, regardless of the venue. Therefore, there's a high likelihood for a bet on both teams to score (yes) to come through.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Iceland's head coach has indicated that his team does not plan to dominate possession in Baku. This makes sense, as the "Vikings" have historically thrived on counter-attacking football. This approach naturally affects the number of set pieces they earn in the opponent's half. Over four World Cup qualifying matches, the Scandinavians have not earned more than four corners in any game. We expect this trend to continue in Baku. Editor's choice: total Iceland corners under 5.5.

Iceland cannot afford any slip-ups in their remaining two matches. Despite the pressure, the schedule allows Arnar Gunnlaugsson's squad to aim for maximum points, especially against an unmotivated Azerbaijan side: with just one point from four games and a dismal goal difference of -9, they have no realistic chance of even securing second place. The visitors should be buoyed by their draw with France, and we believe they will justify their status as favorites and edge the score in their favor, although they might not keep a clean sheet as they did in their previous three matches (2-1). Given these circumstances, betting on an Iceland victory seems like a sound option.