Moldova vs Italy Prediction 14 November 2025

📢 What can we expect from the clash between Moldova and Italy in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers at the Zimbru Stadium in Chișinău? The gulf in class between the teams is clear—Italy are part of Europe's footballing elite, while Moldova sit at just 156th in the FIFA rankings. For the hosts, it's an opportunity to showcase their resilience and test themselves against a powerhouse, while for the Azzurri, it's a chance to bolster their confidence. On paper, the favorite is obvious, but underestimating the opponent can be a costly mistake even for the strongest teams.

Head-to-Head

📊 The national teams of Moldova and Italy rarely cross paths. Their last encounter before the current qualifying cycle took place over 20 years ago, with their match in June 2025 marking their first official clash in two decades during the first round of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. Moldova surprised many with their organization and boldness in attack, even managing to score first, although the goal was ruled out for offside. However, Italy's class and squad depth prevailed as the Azzurri gradually gained momentum throughout the match, securing a well-deserved 2-0 victory.

Moldova Team Overview

🔵 Moldova remains one of Europe's weakest national teams. They have yet to achieve any significant milestones, and their current campaign for World Cup 2026 qualification is proving to be extremely challenging. Over six matches, the "Tricolor" have managed to secure just one point, leaving them at the bottom of their group's standings. Additionally, they hold one of the worst goal differences in the qualifiers, with a tally of 4:26.

🟡 Moldova earned their lone point in the most recent round, drawing 1-1 with Estonia on October 14. Despite being underdogs, the match was evenly contested, and the result can be considered fair. Under the guidance of Lilian Popescu, who took charge after a crushing defeat to Norway (1-11), the team has shown noticeable improvement in their game organization. Even in the away fixture against Romania on October 9, Moldova put up a respectable performance, narrowly losing 2-1 and having opportunities to draw level.

Italy Team Overview

🔵 In recent years, Italy's national team have faced significant challenges in qualifying for the World Cup. The team missed out on two consecutive tournaments — the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, failing in the qualifiers. The current qualifying campaign is also proving difficult: the Azzurri are in second place in their group, with 15 points from six matches, and are likely to be forced into a playoff to secure a spot at the 2026 World Cup.

⚪ Nonetheless, the team's current form offers some optimism. Italy have secured five consecutive victories, albeit against lower-ranked opponents — a common scenario for top teams in qualifying cycles where serious competition is scarce. In their most recent match on October 14, the Azzurri confidently defeated Israel at home (3-0), maintaining control of the game from start to finish.

Latest news

Moldova

📣 Reflecting on the game and the initial weeks in charge, after the 1-1 draw against Estonia, Moldova's head coach Lilian Popescu remarked: "It was a high-intensity match. I've only been acquainted with these guys for eight days—we had just five training sessions. I wholeheartedly thank them and congratulate all the debutants: they showed character and fighting spirit." This was only the second match for the coach at the helm of the national team.

✅ Moldova's squad for the November fixtures appears even stronger than during the October break. Experienced midfielder Artur Ionita has returned to the team after missing the previous camp, and Ion Nicolaescu, the national team's all-time top scorer, has recovered from injury.

Italy

📣 Highlighting the approach to squad selection and preparation for upcoming clashes, Italy's head coach Gennaro Gattuso emphasized: "I want to see maximum effort and continue the path we started in September. In the first game, I'll give a chance to those who have seen less playing time. We need to focus on ourselves and be ready for any scenario." Speaking about Moldova, Gattuso warned against underestimation: "Moldova? There are no easy games anymore. The trap is always near, and I expect a tough match. My players understand this well."

🚫 According to Italy's head coach, the upcoming match is likely to feature a lineup close to the reserves. It is already known that Nicolo Barella will definitely not play; the midfielder received an unnecessary yellow card in the 90+4 minute of the match against Israel (3-0) and will miss the game due to suspension. Additionally, Giacomo Raspadori's participation is in doubt. During the first training session after the call-up, the forward took a painful knock to his right glute and left the field limping noticeably. Preliminary assessments suggest there are no serious injuries—it's a severe bruise without any tears. A final decision on his participation against Moldova will be made on the morning of November 12.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Italy isn't known for being a high-scoring team. Despite their talented squad, the Azzurri play pragmatically and rarely dish out thrashings, especially on the road. Notably, they have scored no more than three goals away from home in 16 of their last 17 matches. The only exception was a recent 4-5 match against Israel, which took place on neutral ground and was more of a chaotic anomaly. Under Lilian Popescu, Moldova have significantly improved their game organization. Considering that in the first leg, Italy managed just two goals at home against Moldova (2-0), who had a different coaching staff at that time, a bet on Italy's total under 3.5 goals seems well-founded.

🚩 Corner Prediction

In the upcoming match, Italy are likely to take control and dominate possession for most of the game. However, Moldova shouldn't be underestimated—they don't sit back and aim to counterattack. Even in the first leg, playing away against the Azzurri, Moldova showed courage and earned six corners. On their home turf, Moldova can replicate or even surpass that performance. Therefore, a bet on Moldova's total over 1.5 corners, which has hit in 14 of their last 15 matches, appears to be a logical choice.