Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Prediction 9 November 2025

🔈 Can the "Bees" withstand the attacking onslaught of the "Whites" and add to their points tally? One of the standout matches in Sunday's La Liga schedule is the clash between Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid at the "Campo de Vallecas." Xabi Alonso's squad confidently sits atop the national championship standings and is determined to avoid any slip-ups ahead of the upcoming international break. Our editorial team anticipates an intense encounter with plenty of thrilling moments from both sides. Despite playing away, bookmakers give a fourfold advantage to the "Galacticos."

Head-to-Head

📊 Interestingly, Rayo Vallecano consistently puts up a strong fight against the giants of Spanish football. Over the last 11 head-to-head encounters, the "Bees" have not lost to the "Whites" by more than one goal. In the last five meetings between these teams at "Campo de Vallecas," Real Madrid have managed just one victory—in the second round of the 2021/22 La Liga season (1-0). Let's note the average goals per team over their last 10 head-to-head clashes: Rayo Vallecano – 1.1, Real Madrid – 1.4.

Rayo Vallecano Team Overview

⚪ Inigo Perez and his squad continue to make strides in their quest for European competition next season. Currently, the "Bees" have accumulated 14 points, placing them 10th in the La Liga standings. It's crucial to note that they trail the 6th spot by just four points. Special attention should be given to the capital club's strong performances in home fixtures. Rayo Vallecano have suffered only one setback at Campo de Vallecas across all competitions this season—a defeat to Sevilla (0-1) in the 7th round of La Liga. Let's also highlight Inigo Perez's side's average scoring rate in the current La Liga campaign—1.09 goals scored per match with 1.27 conceded.

🔴 Last weekend, Rayo Vallecano stood no chance of success in their away clash with Villarreal (0-4). A quick glance at the expected goals ratio confirms this: 3.02 to 1.02 in favor of the "Yellow Submarine." During the midweek, the "Bees" also played a European fixture in the 3rd round of the Conference League. Their opponents were Polish side Lech Poznań (3-2), who posed a significant challenge to Inigo Perez's team. However, it's more important to focus on the character shown by Rayo Vallecano's players. By halftime, the Spaniards were trailing by two goals, but they managed to find the net three times before the final whistle, securing a vital three points.

Real Madrid Team Overview

⚪ The "Los Blancos" continue to dominate in the national championship, sitting atop the league table. In the current La Liga season, they have already secured 10 victories in 11 matches, with their only loss coming in the "capital derby" against Atletico Madrid (2-5). It's fair to say that at the moment, the "Galacticos" are one of the most organized teams in Europe, virtually devoid of weaknesses. Their expensive summer signings have proven worthwhile, allowing Xabi Alonso to build his project on a solid foundation rather than barren ground. Real Madrid's average performance this season stands at 2.36 goals scored per match, with 0.91 conceded.

📌 Last weekend, Real Madrid hosted visitors from Valencia at their home ground. A fantastic team effort with the ball and consistently high intensity enabled "Los Blancos" to secure a commanding 4-0 victory. However, midweek saw Real Madrid suffer their second defeat of the season across all competitions, losing to Liverpool (0-1) in the fourth round of the Champions League. The English side maintained a compact defense and nullified the "Galacticos'" strengths in ball progression. The expected goals ratio highlights Liverpool's significant superiority: 2.51 to 0.45. Notably, this xG figure is Real Madrid's worst since October 2024. Now, Xabi Alonso's squad must show resilience and deliver their best football over the weekend.

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Rayo Vallecano

📰 Iñigo Pérez's football philosophy revolves around high-intensity pressing and team coordination in ball play. The "Bees" rank among the league leaders in forward movements and wing crosses, further showcasing the players' exceptional physical fitness. This also underscores the capital club's capability to compete for top spots and challenge the giants of Spanish football. Rayo Vallecano's most prolific player this season is Jorge de Frutos. The 28-year-old Spanish forward plays a pivotal role in ball distribution in the opponent's half and has already contributed 7 points across all competitions (6 goals, 1 assist). Furthermore, this season, he received his first call-up to the national team and fulfilled a childhood dream by debuting for "La Roja" in their match against Turkey (6-0).

❌ Rayo Vallecano's injury list includes Diego Méndez (leg injury) and Abdul Mumin (knee injury). Luis Felipe's participation in the upcoming match remains highly doubtful due to a hamstring injury.

Real Madrid

🎤 After the setback at Anfield, Xabi Alonso shared his thoughts on his team's performance: "The game was evenly matched, but towards the end, we conceded too many corners and free kicks. In the first half, we were improving, but in the second half, all those unnecessary fouls... We lost our momentum and struggled to break through their defensive line. It was a balanced match and very different from the game at Metropolitano (a 2-5 loss to Atletico). We showed our character, and there are different ways to lose." Federico Valverde also weighed in on why Real couldn't succeed: "It's hard to accept this defeat. We lost three points because of a set piece we should have handled better. It's tough to play at this stadium. We had our chances, and so did they. We need to defend better on set pieces."

❌ In Real Madrid's injury list are Dani Carvajal (knee injury), Franco Mastantuono (groin injury), Antonio Rüdiger (hip injury), and Aurélien Tchouaméni (muscle injury).

🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction

🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction

Head-to-head clashes between these teams are typically marked by a high number of cautions, averaging around six per game. In five of their last seven meetings, at least five yellow cards were issued. For this match, it's crucial to consider that the "Bees" will likely aim to disrupt the flow and counter the attacking power of the "Whites" by breaking up numerous plays. Our pick – total yellow cards over 4.5.

⚽ Goals Prediction

In five of Rayo Vallecano's last six matches, there have been at least three goals scored. Let's note the average number of goals each side has scored this season: the "Bees" – 1.1, the "Whites" – 2.4. Historically, their encounters are known for being goal-rich, with an average of about 3.7 goals per match. Based on these insights, our choice is – total goals over 2.5.

🚩 Corners Prediction

Both clubs boast significant averages in corners earned: Rayo Vallecano – around 6.3 per game, Real – 5.9. Current statistical trends are also notable, as at least 11 corners have been recorded in eight of the "Bees'" last ten games. We suggest betting on the following outcome – total corners over 9.5.

Real Madrid fans shouldn't expect an easy ride this coming Sunday, despite Los Blancos' stellar form in the domestic league. Moreover, Rayo Vallecano have proven to be a tricky opponent for the Galacticos—across their last 11 head-to-head encounters, Rayo have not lost by more than a single goal margin. We anticipate a high-scoring affair with the hosts putting up a strong fight. A final score of 1-2 seems quite plausible. The key bet here is Rayo Vallecano to win with a +1.5 handicap.