Athletic vs Oviedo Prediction 9 November 2025

🔈 Can the Basques live up to their favorite status in the upcoming home match? One of the intriguing fixtures of La Liga's 12th round is the clash between Athletic and Real Oviedo. Both clubs find themselves in the lower half of the table, yet they have vastly different objectives for the season. Ernesto Valverde's side is experiencing a bit of a crisis and desperately needs a boost before the next international break. Bookmakers heavily favor the Bilbao club, anticipating a victory through sheer class.

Head-to-Head

📊 The last time these clubs faced each other was during the 2011/12 Copa del Rey. Athletic emerged victorious in the two-legged tie, winning both matches 1-0 at San Mamés and Nuevo Carlos Tartiere. Interestingly, in their last six away games against the Basques, Real Oviedo have managed just one win, which came during the 1998/99 La Liga season with a 5-3 scoreline. Let's note the average goals scored by each side over their last 10 official head-to-head encounters: Athletic – 1.5, Real Oviedo – 1.3.

Athletic Bilbao Team Overview

🔴 The Basques have suffered defeats in their last three matches across all competitions, a deeply troubling trend that highlights the internal issues plaguing the club. Ernesto Valverde's increasingly emotional reactions only underscore that the situation is slowly slipping from his grasp. In the domestic league, the Red and Whites find themselves in 11th place, trailing the Champions League spots by a substantial eight points. Athletic's disappointing scoring record is also worth noting, with just one goal per game (ranking 16th in the league). This season in La Liga, the Bilbao side has already endured three losses at San Mamés—a scenario that seemed unthinkable last season.

⚪ Midweek, Athletic traveled to the UK for their fourth-round Champions League clash. The Red and Whites didn't receive a warm welcome at St James' Park, suffering a well-deserved 0-2 defeat. Ernesto Valverde's squad struggled to perform effectively in open play, and injuries severely limited their attacking options. A quick look at the xG statistics confirms the fairness of the result: 1.2 to 0.58 in favor of the Magpies. In their previous La Liga outing, Athletic unexpectedly fell to Real Sociedad (2-3). Numerous individual errors and complete defensive disarray were the main factors behind the Basque club's failure.

Real Oviedo Team Overview

🟡 The newcomer in Spain's La Liga is still on the hunt for their first victory under their new head coach. For four consecutive matches, the "Carbayones" have failed to secure a win, which has once again seen them slip into the relegation zone. Currently, the club has only accumulated 8 points, placing them 19th in the standings. Notably, Real Oviedo boasts the league's worst attacking efficiency, averaging just 0.64 goals per game. Following an early exit from the Copa del Rey and disappointing results in La Liga, some of the "Carbayones" supporters are already lamenting the departure of Veljko Paunović.

🔵 In their last La Liga outing, the "Carbayones" couldn't capitalize on home advantage against Osasuna (0-0). Despite having several opportunities and factual support, Luis Carrión's men played overly cautiously and at times hesitated to threaten the opponent's goal. Real Oviedo managed only 2 shots on target in 90 minutes, which is far from satisfactory. The new head coach is aiming for success by employing a 4-3-3 tactical formation—its versatility allows for various styles depending on the situation during matches. In the final game before the international break, Real Oviedo's coaching staff needs to deliver a clear game plan and articulate what tactical objectives the club is pursuing.

Latest news

Athletic Bilbao

📰 The recent European match was a significant event for most associated with the Spanish club, as it was at St. James' Park that Athletic's latest academy graduates made their debuts. Asier Hierro and Selton Sanchez fulfilled their dreams by stepping onto the pitch for the first time with the senior team. Here's what the Lions' head coach Ernesto Valverde had to say: "I have no doubts about his (Selton's) abilities and what kind of player he will become; he has talent and character. Hierro is a player who breaks into open spaces and competes with everyone. We are thrilled with them. They are on the verge of becoming regulars in the first team." Interestingly, Selton Sanchez became the first player in Athletic's history to play for all three main teams in the club's system in a single season (Athletic, Bilbao Athletic, and Basconia). Whether these players will become the next stars nurtured by the Basque team remains to be seen.

❌ In Athletic's injury list are Inaki Williams (groin injury), Marouane Sannadi (knee injury), Oihan Sancet (muscle injury), Benat Prados (knee injury), Unai Eguiluz (knee injury), and Nico Williams (groin injury).

Real Oviedo

🎤 Ahead of the upcoming La Liga round, Venezuelan forward Salomon Rondon spoke with the club's media, emphasizing that the team is not standing still but is steadily developing and moving towards success: "We are improving and we know the team we will face next weekend. Athletic are playing in the Champions League and have a skilled squad, so we must work hard and prepare well to head to Bilbao for three points. We need to enhance our decision-making in the final third. It's true that goals matter, but the most important thing is to improve and secure three points to stay competitive. We must continue working and improving. Creating and maintaining attacking volume is vital. It's important to create chances and achieve results. The goals will come. Initially, it was tough for me, but now I need to keep working, stay mentally and physically fit, and not give up. Criticism will always exist; it's part of football. I love to fight, and I love to win, and I understand the fans' frustration because they want to see Real Oviedo as high as possible. But rest assured, we are working on all aspects to make that happen."

❌ In Real Oviedo's injury list is Alvaro Lemos (knee injury). Also doubtful for the upcoming match are Josip Brekalo (groin injury), Santi Cazorla (ankle injury), and Ovimuno Ejaria (leg injury).

🟨 Yellow Card Prediction

🟨 Yellow Card Prediction

Let's take a look at the average number of cautions recorded in each team's matches this season: Athletic Bilbao average 4.4, while Real Oviedo average 4. It's also worth noting that in 4 of their last 5 head-to-head encounters, there have been no more than 4 yellow cards. We don't see compelling reasons to expect a rough game with numerous warnings. Our editorial choice is total yellow cards under 4.5.

⚽ Goal Prediction

Currently, Athletic Bilbao are far from their best form, having conceded in each of their last 4 matches. Let's note the average number of goals conceded by each team this season: the "Lions" allow 1.2, while the "Carbayones" concede 1.7. There is a high likelihood that we'll witness several mistakes from both sides, inevitably leading to a high-scoring affair. We are backing the following outcome – total over 2 goals.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Let's examine the ratio of corners won and conceded by the teams in the current La Liga campaign. Athletic Bilbao show a positive trend in this statistical aspect: 5.5 won versus 4.4 conceded. The same can't be said for Real Oviedo: 3.5 won versus 6.5 conceded. Playing at home will compel the "Lions" to dominate territorially, leading to a significant number of corner kicks. Our choice is Athletic's individual total corners over 5.5.

Athletic are undoubtedly the favorites in this matchup, but it's crucial to consider the challenges facing the Bilbao side at this point in the season. Their squad issues are particularly noteworthy, as they hinder the Basques from playing cohesive and organized football. We believe the visitors can at least find the net once—regular individual errors by the Lions will only aid this possibility. A final score of 2-1 seems reasonable. The key prediction: Real Oviedo will score.