Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Prediction 9 November 2025

🔊 Can Nottingham edge closer to the relegation zone threshold? Even a victory over Leeds won't lift them out of the Premier League's basement. The "Peacocks" are also near the danger zone, eager to collect points at the City Ground. Which team has the better chance of success? Let's delve into this matchup with an insightful analysis from our editorial team.

Head-to-Head

📊 These teams haven't faced each other frequently in recent years. During Leeds' last stint in the 2023/24 Premier League season, they traded home victories. Prior to that, their last encounter was three years ago in the Championship. Over their last five meetings, Nottingham Forest have celebrated more successes with three wins compared to Leeds' one. The teams have shared the spoils twice. In 3 out of these 5 matches, the total goals did not exceed 2.5.

Nottingham Forest Team Overview

The "Foresters" endured a rough patch with four consecutive defeats from the 6th to the 9th rounds of the Premier League, but they finally managed to break that losing streak in their latest outing. Nottingham hosted Manchester United at the City Ground. Judging by how the match unfolded, it could be argued that the hosts were more likely to have dropped points with the 2-2 draw. Sean Dyche's side led until the 81st minute and generally posed a greater attacking threat (2.07 xG compared to 1.48 xG). During the week, Forest traveled to Austria to face Sturm in the Europa League. However, they couldn't secure any points there either, ending in a goalless draw (0-0).

Morgan Gibbs-White became the anti-hero of the Europa League clash against Sturm. The team captain missed a penalty in the 35th minute and failed to impress overall, receiving the lowest rating among players from both teams. That penalty attempt remained his only shot of the game. On the other hand, Nottingham's defender Morato stood out. The Brazilian dominated aerial duels, winning 100% of them, and effectively orchestrated play from deep, controlling the game's tempo. His 68 out of 75 accurate passes were the best on the field.

Leeds United Team Overview

Leeds reaffirmed their reputation as a home team with a 3-0 away defeat to Brighton in the 10th round of the Premier League. Despite having equal possession, the hosts significantly outperformed the "Peacocks" in both shots (15 to 4) and expected goals (xG) (2.45 xG to 0.57 xG). Daniel Farke continues to struggle to find a remedy for his players' away woes. Over the span of five away matches, the "Whites" average just 0.79 xG, compared to 1.67 xG at home. Their only positive away result was a victory over a struggling Wolverhampton (3-1), but even then, the Yorkshire side overperformed with only 0.46 expected goals.

The standout performers for Leeds against Brighton were players who didn't even complete the full 90 minutes—Sean Longstaff and Anton Stach. Notably, the German replaced the Englishman during the match. Before leaving the field, Longstaff was the most active player, drawing two fouls and delivering three successful crosses out of five into the opponent's box. Stach relied more on his individual skill, leading in successful dribbles (100%) and aerial duels won (2 out of 2).

Latest news

Nottingham Forest

🎙 Nottingham Forest's head coach shared his thoughts on the Europa League draw with Sturm and looked ahead to the upcoming Premier League clash against Leeds. “We controlled the first half, but to win a match, you need to score goals, and that's my biggest gripe. On the plus side, we didn't concede any. They didn't pose much threat to our defense, and I can't recall them having many chances. Look at the injuries. We have three players who are missing from the Europa League group stage. That's a challenge in itself. But that's the situation we're in right now. Of course, we want to beat Leeds, but hopefully, the international break will give the players a bit more time, and the injuries will heal,” stated Sean Dyche.

❌ Nottingham's injury list grows with each match. Recently, it included Ola Aina, Chris Wood, and Oleksandr Zinchenko. After the 10th round, injuries to Douglas Luiz and Callum Hudson-Odoi were confirmed. Arnaud Kalimuendo and James McAtee couldn't finish the Europa League match against Sturm.

Leeds United

🎙 Leeds' head coach shared his expectations ahead of their Premier League clash with Nottingham Forest. “At this stage of the season, I don't think it's wise to put too much emphasis on the league standings. You never know where, for example, Forest might end up at the season's end. Last season, they secured a spot in European competitions. It could happen that in a few months they find themselves mid-table or even close to where they finished last season. So, I won't put too much weight on it. It's just another opportunity to earn points. At this level, as a recently promoted team, you always have to be at your best, delivering top performances to give yourself a chance to pick up points,” said Daniel Farke.

❌ Unlike Nottingham, Leeds have largely avoided injury woes. Willy Gnonto is still recovering from hernia surgery. Dominic Calvert-Lewin was diagnosed with a groin strain following the match against Brighton. However, the medical team found nothing more serious than a strain, so the Englishman might make the squad.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by the main referee, Jarred Gillett. His average number of yellow cards over the last 20 Premier League matches is 3.8. Nottingham Forest's matches in the EPL tend to be more intense: in their last five, an average of four cautions were issued, whereas Leeds averaged only two. The "Peacocks" generally avoid getting into tough tackles, earning fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 17 out of 18 games. The "Foresters" play more aggressively in this regard and, trailing in the league standings, will likely take the field with a heightened sense of urgency. Hence, we anticipate a Nottingham Forest win in yellow cards.

⚽️ Goals Prediction

Leeds are a different team away from home compared to when they play at Elland Road. On average, the "Peacocks" score almost one expected goal less per away game than at home. In 4 out of 5 away matches, the "Whites" failed to score. It's too early to speak of Nottingham's defensive stability, but at least they've kept clean sheets in 3 out of 4 matches under Sean Dyche. At the City Ground, we're unlikely to see the gaps between the lines that were evident in every match under Ange Postecoglou. The key will be finishing. With these factors in mind, a bet on both teams to score (no) seems reasonable.

🚩 Corners Prediction

Sean Dyche often alternates between the 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1 formations depending on defensive or attacking objectives. The constant is Nottingham's fast flanks. Combined with the vertical football style from the English manager, this often leads to set pieces at the opponent's end. Forest feel more confident at home and consistently earn five or more corners (in six consecutive matches). We suggest focusing on this aspect for the hosts. Our prediction: total corners for Nottingham Forest over 4.5.

Both teams are struggling to pick up points in the Premier League. Leeds have been particularly poor on the road, losing four of their last five away games and scoring only three goals in that span—all in one match. Nottingham, on the other hand, have a tendency to squander leads at the last moment, as seen in their game against Manchester United. However, their finishing is better than their upcoming opponents'. At City Ground, they have scored nine times in seven home fixtures.

We have more faith in Sean Dyche's pragmatic approach, under which Forest are not yet stringing together wins but are at least starting to accumulate points across various competitions. We give the edge to the hosts with a scoreline of 2-0. A well-founded bet would be on a Nottingham Forest victory.