Newcastle vs Athletic Prediction for 6 November 2025 - Football

🔈 What are the odds for the Basques to secure a positive outcome against the resilient Magpies? One of the most intriguing matchups of the Champions League's third round features Newcastle taking on Athletic at St. James' Park. Both clubs have fallen short of preseason expectations, currently sitting in the lower half of their respective domestic league tables. In the Champions League, both teams aim to at least reach the knockout stage. Bookmakers are heavily favoring the English side, granting them nearly five times the advantage, showing little faith in Ernesto Valverde's squad pulling off a miracle. 

Head-to-Head

📊 In official matches, the teams clashed during the 1994/95 UEFA Cup campaign. In the Round of 32, they were tasked with determining the stronger side over a two-legged tie. On English soil, the Magpies managed to edge out the Basques 3-2, but in Spain, they suffered a narrow 0-1 defeat. As a result, Athletic advanced to the next stage of the tournament thanks to the away goals rule. 

Newcastle United Team Overview

⚪ This season, Newcastle have not been the cohesive unit capable of maintaining consistency throughout the entire campaign. One of the main reasons for this is their unsuccessful transfer window. Several players that the Magpies were keen on simply declined to join Eddie Howe's squad. However, their current Champions League run is going quite well. Following a hard-fought defeat to Barcelona (1-2), they secured victories over Union Saint-Gilloise (4-0) and Benfica (3-0). Currently, the English side occupies an interim 8th place in the standings, which guarantees them automatic advancement to the round of 16.

⚫ Ahead of their European clash, Newcastle faced West Ham (1-3) over the past weekend in the 10th round of the English Premier League. Eddie Howe's team completely faltered at the London Stadium—numerous passing errors and sterile possession allowed the Hammers to feel comfortable. A glance at the expected goals ratio tells the story: 1.75 to 0.52 in favor of West Ham. As for their previous Champions League fixture, the Magpies managed to defeat José Mourinho's Benfica (3-0). In that match, Eddie Howe fully showcased his tactical flexibility and the relevance of his ideas.

Athletic Bilbao Team Overview

🔴 Athletic are not in their best form, having lost their last two matches in the national league. Ernesto Valverde is still searching for balance across the lines, but consistent setbacks are putting him under significant public pressure. Currently, the Basques sit 11th in the La Liga standings with 14 points from 11 matches. On the international stage, their performance hasn't been much better, securing just one win in three games (against Qarabag – 3:1).

⚪ The “Lions” lack tactical flexibility, consistently deploying a 4-2-3-1 formation. It's important to note that the club faces significant issues with finishing. A quick look at their xG in La Liga reveals that despite an xG of 15.43, the Basques have found the net only 11 times. In the last Champions League round, the Spanish club managed to overcome Azerbaijani side Qarabag at San Mames, despite conceding an early goal. Ball possession and transition phases are the main strengths of Ernesto Valverde's squad. Whether Athletic can strengthen their position in the Champions League standings and prove stronger than an inconsistent Newcastle will be revealed soon.

Latest news

Newcastle United

🎤 After their 3-0 triumph over Benfica in the last round of the Champions League, Eddie Howe spoke to the press: “Today, Jacob Ramsey came on and played really well, as did Lewis Miley. This showcases the strength and depth of our squad. The players are constantly pushing each other forward. It was a tough match—Benfica have vast European experience and a manager [Mourinho] who has achieved everything. The pressure on us was intense, especially after the 2-1 defeat to Brighton on Saturday.” One of Newcastle’s standout performers is newcomer Nic Woltemade, who joined the club from Stuttgart for €85 million. This season, the 23-year-old forward has already scored six goals across all competitions.

❌ In Newcastle's injury list are Harrison Ashby (hip injury), Valentino Livramento (knee injury), and Yoan Wissa (knee injury). Anthony Gordon (muscle injury) and Kieran Trippier (illness) are also doubtful for the match.

Athletic Bilbao

🎤 A 3-2 defeat to a struggling Real Sociedad last weekend was a significant blow for Athletic. Ernesto Valverde struggled to find the words to describe the situation the club finds itself in: "Athletic have no choice but to roll up their sleeves and work hard to turn this current rough patch around. We will solve this problem through hard work—I guarantee it. We're not where we want to be right now, but we have two important matches this week, and we'll see if we can change our fortunes. We'd love to win for our fans, but all we can do is keep trying. We worked hard throughout the match, but ultimately, we conceded a goal. We'll need to objectively analyze the situation and improve what needs improving. We need to get up and keep moving forward because we have another tough match on Wednesday."

❌ Athletic's injury list includes several key players: Iñaki Williams (groin injury), Marwan Sanadi (knee injury), Beñat Prados (knee injury), Iñigo Leke Martinez (knee injury), and Unai Eguiluz (knee injury).

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

Ivan Kruzliak has been appointed as the main referee for the upcoming European club competition clash. Let's take a look at the Slovakian referee's stats — he averages 5.05 yellow cards per game with 29 fouls recorded. Notably, in 4 of Athletic's last 5 matches, there have been at least 5 cautions. It seems we're in for a physical game with plenty of battles. Our pick is over 3.5 total yellow cards.

⚽ Goals Prediction

In 4 of Newcastle's last 5 games, there have been at least 3 goals scored. The Magpies have struggled with defensive organization but look quite convincing in attack under Eddie Howe. Matches involving both clubs this season show a similar average goal count — around 2.5 goals per game. We'll go with this betting option — over 2.5 total goals.

🚩 Corners Prediction

In the past 3 Champions League rounds, Newcastle are among the leaders in average corners earned per game — about 7.7. In contrast, Athletic's figure is just 3.3. On home turf, the Magpies will certainly aim to dominate territory and convert it into numerous wing threats. A reasonable bet would be Newcastle's individual total corners over 5.5.

Despite Newcastle's somewhat inconsistent results in the domestic league, the Magpies traditionally perform well on home turf. Athletic, on the other hand, are struggling to establish their positional play and often face challenges in breaking down opposing defenses. The absence of several attacking leaders will also influence the outcome of this clash. In our view, a final score of 2-1 seems plausible. The key bet is a Newcastle victory.