Pafos vs Villarreal Prediction for 6 November 2025 - Football

🔊 How will the match between the Champions League's lower-table teams, Pafos and Villarreal, unfold? Just one point separates the two, with the Spanish side trailing. However, a single victory could propel one of these teams into the playoff zone. Villarreal are on the rise, riding a three-match winning streak. Meanwhile, the Cypriots have suffered two defeats in their last three games. Which team is approaching this head-to-head clash in better form? Let's dive into our editorial's prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 The teams have not faced each other before.

Pafos Team Overview

The reigning champions of Cyprus have been experiencing a rough patch on the domestic front. In the local league, Juan Carlos Carcedo's team first fell to Omonia (1-2), allowing them to take the top spot. Following that, Pafos suffered a defeat in the country's Super Cup against AEK (1-1 in regular time; 4-5 on penalties). Their Champions League campaign isn't much brighter. Sure, two points from three matches is a respectable outcome for a debutant in Europe's premier competition. However, it's important to note that these points were secured against Olympiacos (0-0), who are below them in the standings, and Kairat (0-0), another newcomer.

Veteran David Luiz delivered an outstanding performance across all areas of the pitch in the match against Kairat. The Champions League winner with Chelsea was Pafos' standout player not only in terms of average rating but also in effective contributions. He recorded the highest number of blocked shots (5) and clearances (10). Yet, the 38-year-old Brazilian wasn't just active in defense. He posed the main threat to the Kazakh goal, taking four long-range shots, hitting the target three times, and accumulating an expected goals tally of 0.79.

Villarreal Team Overview

Villarreal's head coach Marcelino, along with his squad, can finally breathe a sigh of relief as the level of opposition in the Champions League has eased. The "Yellow Submarine" truly faced a daunting schedule: Tottenham (0-1), Juventus (2-2), and Manchester City (0-2). This explains their 31st position in the standings. However, the "Submariners" are faring much better in La Liga, sitting in third place for quite some time now—since the fifth round. Since then, the "Yellows" have suffered only one defeat in the league, against Real Madrid (1-3), and their winning streak across all competitions has reached three matches.

Ayoze Perez and Gerard Moreno are regaining form after injuries and doing so quite successfully. Perez is currently coming off the bench but has contributed two decisive actions (1 goal, 1 assist) in the last two games. Moreno has started three times, scoring twice in a consecutive goal-scoring run. His winning goal against Valencia in the 10th round of La Liga earned him the Man of the Match award.

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Pafos

🎙 David Luiz reflected on Pafos' draw with Kairat in the third round of the Champions League. "I enjoyed it. There were tough moments, but that's football. It happens. Sometimes the game plan changes within a couple of minutes. But by the end, I believe the team showed character. We fought until the very end. We knew it would be challenging even with 11 players, and even more so with 10. We earned that point. Perhaps we deserved even more. We had plenty of chances. I even had opportunities to score, but we need to keep working. Every game will be a battle like this. I'm proud of my team, the coach, and the fans who traveled from afar. So the effort was worth it," shared the Brazilian defender.

❌ In the battle with Omonia for the top spot in the Cypriot championship, midfielder Ivan Šunjić is sidelined. The Bosnian has already missed three matches but might make the squad against Villarreal. However, João Correia is definitely out, as he was sent off early in the match against Kairat, significantly complicating life for his team.

Villarreal

🎙 Marcelino skillfully rotates his squad between competitions. Even the most pressing team in La Liga, Rayo Vallecano, couldn't break Villarreal. Here's what the "Submarines" head coach said about their opponent's style after winning the head-to-head clash: "They don't give you a moment to breathe, pressing high and leaving very little time for possession. They force you to attack quickly, and if you don't finish your attack, they counter with great speed. If we had played their game, it would have been very difficult for us to win. Therefore, in every match, we must impose our own style."

❌ Villarreal approach the fourth round of the Champions League with nearly an optimal squad. In the infirmary are Willy Kambwala, Pau Cabanes, and Logan Costa. However, none of them are guaranteed starters, even when fit.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The main referee for the match is Sven Jablonski from Germany. Over his last 20 Bundesliga matches, he has averaged 3.6 yellow cards per game. To compare the styles of both teams, let's look at their Champions League encounters. In three matches involving Pafos, a total of 10 yellow cards were issued. However, it's worth noting that in the game against Bayern, only one yellow card was shown between the two teams.

Villarreal are a more competitive side. Therefore, matches involving the "Yellow Submarine" see significantly more fouls resulting in yellow cards, averaging 5.6 per game. For the Spaniards, Pafos is akin to Bayern for the Cypriots. Thus, we don't anticipate a rough game from either side. Our prediction: total yellow cards under 3.5.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Pafos have struggled to find the net in their debut Champions League campaign. The only goal they scored against Bayern came when they were already trailing 0-4. Over three rounds, Juan Carlos Carceda's team has accumulated just 1.88 xG—one of the lowest in the tournament. Meanwhile, Villarreal have kept three consecutive clean sheets. It's highly likely that the bet on both teams to score (no) will succeed.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Marcelino doesn't often rely on possession-based football. In only one of their last five matches did Villarreal hold more than 50% possession, and that was against the semi-professional Ciudad de Lucena in the Spanish Cup. This affects their set-piece opportunities as well. The "Yellow Submarine" have not earned more than five corners in any of their last five games. Of course, Pafos also find it easier to play by conceding possession. However, we believe that on home turf, the Cypriots are unlikely to be pinned back for the entire match. Therefore, we suggest betting on Villarreal's total corners under 5.5.

Both clubs face a common issue in the current Champions League campaign – finishing chances. Villarreal have netted just twice in three matches, while Pafos have managed only one goal. The Cypriot side's attack simply doesn't meet the standards of Europe's premier competition, with their expected goals among the lowest in the tournament. Villarreal's scoring woes can be attributed to a tough schedule and injuries to key forwards, but the return of Ayoze Pérez and Gerard Moreno has boosted their stats, albeit only domestically – they've scored 12 goals in three games on home soil. While expecting an immediate turnaround for the Spaniards in the Champions League might be optimistic, we believe they can score at least twice in this match-up. Given these circumstances, betting on a Villarreal victory with a -1 handicap seems promising. The predicted scoreline is a 2-0 win for the visitors.