PSG vs Bayern Prediction for 5 November 2025 - Football

🔊 Could this be Bayern's first defeat of the season? Vincent Kompany's side travels to Paris for their fourth round Champions League group stage clash against the reigning champions, PSG, at the Parc des Princes. Both teams have claimed victory in all their previous matches, yet the Parisians haven't displayed the same level of dominance as the Bavarians have throughout the season. Their head-to-head history is rich, as both clubs frequently reach the latter stages of the competition. This match undoubtedly stands out as the highlight of the round, prompting us to put considerable thought into crafting a prediction—after all, these are arguably the two best teams in the world right now, in our humble opinion.

Head-to-Head

📊 In their last nine encounters, Munich hold a 6-3 advantage over PSG in terms of victories. Notably, there hasn't been a single draw between these sides. Their most recent clash took place on July 5, 2025, during the Club World Cup quarter-finals in Atlanta, USA. On that occasion, the Parisians advanced with a 2-0 win, courtesy of goals from Désiré Doué and Ousmane Dembélé.

Paris Saint-Germain Team Overview

🏆 The reigning champions have lived up to expectations by securing 9 points in the first three rounds, defeating Atalanta (4-0), Barcelona (2-1), and Bayer Leverkusen (7-2). Luis Enrique's squad tops the group with the best goal difference of 13:3. Interestingly, their top scorer and assist leader is left-back Nuno Mendes, who has already tallied 4 points (2 goals and 2 assists).

🔵 However, things aren't as smooth for PSG in the French league. While they are leading, they've drawn three times and lost once in 11 matches, with the defeat coming against Marseille in "Le Classique" (0-1). They also drew with Lille (1-1), Strasbourg (3-3), and Lorient (1-1). These teams are considered inferior to PSG in terms of class and squad depth. Undoubtedly, a series of injuries to key players like Kvaratskhelia, Dembele, Doué, Marquinhos, and others have impacted these results. Yet, in their latest match against Nice at Parc des Princes, almost all players returned to action except Doué. Substitute Gonçalo Ramos secured the win in the 94th minute, marking his 100th appearance for the club (1-0). After 11 rounds, Enrique's side holds a two-point lead over Marseille and Lens.

Bayern Munich Team Overview

🏆 Bayern are flawless, impeccable, and perfect—it's hard to find more fitting adjectives. The team has won all 15 matches since the season began across all competitions, setting a new record: no team from the top five European leagues has ever started a season with 15 consecutive victories (the previous record was held by Milan in the 1992/93 season with 13). In the Champions League, the Munich side have defeated Chelsea (3-1), Pafos (5-1), and Club Brugge (4-0). They sit second, trailing PSG only on goal difference—12:2 in their favor. Harry Kane leads as the club's and the tournament's top scorer with five goals.

🔴 In the Bundesliga, Kompany's squad are also in perfect form. Last weekend, Bayern comfortably dispatched Bayer at the Allianz Arena, even resting Kane, Olise, and Dias on the bench (3-0). The first half saw Serge Gnabry, Nicolas Jackson, and an own goal secure a commanding lead. A victory in Paris would not only extend Bayern's record streak but also make them the first team in Champions League history to win at Parc des Princes three times in a row. Their last two visits to Paris ended in narrow 1-0 victories.

Latest news

Paris Saint-Germain

🎙️ Luis Enrique after the match against Nice: "It's a great feeling to win like this—right at the last minute, in a decisive moment of the game, with fans singing for the entire 94 minutes. I'm pleased with the team's attitude and the fact that we deservedly took all three points. It's significant for Gonçalo and the entire team. Reaching 100 appearances for Paris Saint-Germain is a major milestone. He came into the game well, and that goal will boost his confidence."

🏥 João Neves and Fabián Ruiz have returned to action and played against Nice. Both were recovering from muscle injuries and missed five matches each. Reports suggest that Ousmane Dembélé will start on the bench against Bayern due to slight discomfort following the last game. Désiré Doué will miss the match due to a muscle injury, while Illya Zabarnyi is out because of a red card he received in the match against Bayer.

Bayern Munich

🎙️ Bayern Munich's vice-captain Joshua Kimmich on the current team atmosphere: "When I joined ten years ago, we had incredible individual talent – 23-25 world-class players. It was tough for a young player to break into the starting lineup back then. Now, we operate as a unified whole, fighting for one another, each running for their teammates – it's a special feeling. There was more individualism in the team back then; now everyone prioritizes the team's success over personal ambitions."

❌ Alphonso Davies plans to return to training after the international break this month. Hiroki Ito and Jamal Musiala are still working individually.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

Maurizio Mariani has been appointed as the main referee at Parc des Princes. Interestingly, the 43-year-old Italian official is currently suspended by the Italian Football Federation due to several errors in the Napoli vs. Napoli – Inter (3:1) match. Over his last 10 games, Mariani has averaged around four yellow cards per match. After three rounds, PSG players have received 3 yellow cards, while Bayern players have 4. We are betting on PSG's individual total under 2.5 yellow cards—a bet that has hit in the Parisians' last 15 consecutive Champions League matches.

⚽ Goal Prediction

In the last five encounters between these clubs, the total has been under 2.5 goals. Moreover, in all these games, the "both teams to score (no)" bet was successful: one side won with a clean sheet, and there were no draws. We anticipate the upcoming match will also be low-scoring and opt for total under 4 goals.

🚩 Corner Prediction

The average total of corners in head-to-head meetings between these teams is 10.4. Bayern holds a noticeable advantage: PSG's average individual total is 3.22, while Munich's is 7.22. We choose the bet Bayern's individual total over 4.5 corners, which has been successful in the club's last 12 Champions League matches.

Bookmakers have PSG, who have dropped points several times this season, as the favorites, while Bayern, having won all their matches, remain slight underdogs. This is likely because the Parisians are playing at home and are the reigning Champions League holders. Yes, the hosts approach the match almost at full strength, but Dembele is unlikely to start, and Doue, a key attacking piece, is absent altogether. On the other hand, Kompany has his full squad available, which has crafted this impressive run.

This match stands as the most prestigious for both teams at this stage of the season, despite PSG having faced Barcelona and Bayern having played all the Bundesliga heavyweights. The last five head-to-heads have been low-scoring affairs, but we believe the script will change this time around. Our prediction is a Bayern victory with a scoreline of 2-1, though a safer bet would be Bayern not to lose. PSG currently appear more vulnerable, whereas the German side has virtually no weaknesses. Munich's attack is in its prime and seems more convincing than Paris's attacking trio.