TIPS - 1.FSV Mainz 05 VS VfB Stuttgart

[(1.FSV Mainz 05) Weakness]:
1. 1.FSV Mainz 05 are currently deep in the relegation zone in the Bundesliga, which may lead the team to sacrifice in the DFB-Pokal to secure league results, raising doubts about their motivation for this match.
2. 1.FSV Mainz 05 defenders Maxim Leitsch and Anthony Caci are injured and absent, while another center-back Maxim Dal has a torn cruciate ligament and is unavailable.
3. 1.FSV Mainz 05 have been juggling the UEFA Conference League and the Bundesliga recently, leading to a rapid decline in performance, losing 6 of their first 8 Bundesliga matches and unable to focus on the domestic cup.
4. 1.FSV Mainz 05 have lost all 4 home matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 3 goals and conceding 8, with no home advantage remaining.
5. 1.FSV Mainz 05 have performed averagely in recent DFB-Pokal campaigns, being eliminated in the second round in the last two seasons, and only narrowly defeating Germany 3. Liga team Dynamo Dresden 1-0 in the first round this season.
6. 1.FSV Mainz 05 have serious defensive issues, conceding 14 goals in their last 6 league matches, averaging over 2 goals conceded per game, with very poor defensive quality.
7. 1.FSV Mainz 05 have only got 1 win, 3 draws, and 6 losses in their last 10 encounters with VfB Stuttgart, with just 1 win in their last 5 home matches.
8. 1.FSV Mainz 05 have lost all their last 4 matches in AH and all their last 4 home matches in AH with poor performances.

[(VfB Stuttgart) Strength]:
1. VfB Stuttgart recently defeated 1.FSV Mainz 05 in the league and will surely aim to continue their success by beating the opponents again to advance to the next round of the DFB-Pokal.
2. VfB Stuttgart have won 4, drawn 0, and lost 2 in their last 6 official matches, with a win rate over 60%, showing excellent overall form.
3. VfB Stuttgart were the DFB-Pokal champions last season, having defeated Arminia Bielefeld 4-2 in the final last season. They have achieved 7 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 9 DFB-Pokal matches.
4. VfB Stuttgart recently defeated 1.FSV Mainz 05 2-1 in the Bundesliga, winning 4 of their last 6 meetings.

[(VfB Stuttgart) Weakness]:
1. VfB Stuttgart defenders Maximilian Mittelstadt and Luca Jaquez are unable to play, and forwards Ermedin Demirovic and Justin Diehl will both be absent.
2. VfB Stuttgart have performed poorly away from home, losing both recent UEFA Europa League away matches, with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 away games, showing inconsistency.
3. VfB Stuttgart's defensive stability has been average recently, conceding 8 goals in their last 6 matches, averaging over 1 goal conceded per game.
4. VfB Stuttgart have lost 3 of their last 5 matches in AH and lost 2 of their last 3 away matches in AH.

[Tips]:
Both teams in this match have to play three competitions recently.

1.FSV Mainz 05, due to participating in the UEFA Conference League this season, have experienced a collapse in their league performance under the strain of dual competitions, losing 6 of their first 8 matches.

With their thin squad strength, they are unable to handle three competitions simultaneously, and may make significant rotations for this match against VfB Stuttgart.

Although VfB Stuttgart also need to balance the UEFA Europa League, their desire for the DFB-Pokal is clearly higher, especially since they fought through last season and ultimately won the championship, with an excellent cup record.

Based on analysis, we expect VfB Stuttgart to win this away match and advance.

[Recommended]:
VfB Stuttgart (-0/0.5)