Aston Villa vs Man City Prediction for 26 October 2025 - Football

🔊 How will the Spanish showdown between Unai Emery and Josep Guardiola end? In the 9th round of the Premier League, Aston Villa face off against Manchester City. The match will take place in Birmingham at Villa Park. Since Emery's arrival, the Lions have never lost at home to the formidable Citizens. Adding even more intrigue to this clash are the teams' unbeaten runs in the Premier League, each stretching to five matches. Whose ascent up the standings is more likely to continue? Let's evaluate the odds in our editorial's prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 For added intrigue, let's delve into the head-to-head history since Unai Emery took charge of Aston Villa. The Spaniard assumed the role midway through the 2022/23 season. At that time, the teams had already shared the spoils in their first-round encounter at Villa Park (1-1). In the second meeting at the Etihad, Manchester City emerged victorious (3-1). Subsequent clashes saw an exchange of home victories, with neither side managing to score in each other's net. In all other matches, both teams found the back of the net.

Aston Villa Team Overview

Heading into the final round of the Europa League, it seemed Aston Villa had successfully bounced back from their early season struggles. A five-match winning streak across all competitions spoke volumes, with ten goals scored during this run compared to just two in their first six games, suggesting a full recovery from their slump. Against Go Ahead Eagles, Unai Emery's side maintained their attacking momentum, outshooting their opponents more than threefold (18 to 5) and creating significantly higher quality chances (3.04 xG to 0.57 xG). However, their forwards' lack of finishing touch was costly, converting only one out of six clear-cut chances. The final scoreline read 2-1 in favor of the Eagles.

The most threatening players on the pitch against Go Ahead Eagles were Emiliano Buendia, Jadon Sancho, and Amadou Onana. Buendia could be criticized for a poorly taken penalty, yet aside from that miss from the spot, the winger created more dangerous opportunities for his teammates than anyone else, with two key chances totaling 0.49 expected assists. Onana and Sancho excelled in the final third, combining for 37 out of 39 accurate passes.

Manchester City Team Overview

Manchester City's run in the Premier League is slightly less impressive than Aston Villa's. Among their four victories, there's a draw against Arsenal (1-1). However, their unbeaten streak across all competitions is even more significant, with Pep Guardiola's side going nine games without a loss. Their latest triumph came on the road against Villarreal (2-0). The Sky Blues dominated possession as usual (66% to 34%) but allowed quite a few threats at their own goal (11 shots with an xG of 1.83). This trend is noticeable in almost all their away matches, with City creating fewer chances than their opponents in 5 out of 7 games.

Erling Haaland's form is both astonishing and concerning. On one hand, he's netted an incredible 18 goals in 14 club matches this season. Including his international appearances, that tally rises to 25 goals in 17 games. On the other hand, Manchester City's reliance on the Norwegian is worrisome. Across all competitions, the Citizens have scored 25 times, meaning Haaland has contributed to 72% of their goals. It's daunting to imagine what might happen if the striker were to suffer an injury.

Latest news

Aston Villa

🎙 Aston Villa captain John McGinn highlighted the key mistakes his team made following their defeat to Go Ahead Eagles in the Europa League. "The first goal was particularly disappointing for us. I didn't see the second goal, but we had prepared for the first; we knew what they were trying to do, yet we couldn't adapt. That goal is on us as players; we can't afford to lose like that when we're controlling the game. We had chances to go two or three goals up, but we also could have defended better and didn't," the midfielder explained.

❌ Aston Villa's injury list still includes Youri Tielemans. He was sidelined with a calf injury in his first match after the September international break. There are still questions regarding Lucas Digne's condition. The defender suffered an ankle injury in the last Premier League round and missed the game against Go Ahead Eagles. However, the head coach is hopeful he will be available for the squad against Manchester City, as well as Tyrone Mings, who has fully recovered from a similar injury and played 90 minutes in the Europa League.

Manchester City

🎙 Recently, TV pundit and host Jamie Carragher commented on Erling Haaland's form, highlighting the club's reliance on him. "The Norwegian is the main reason Guardiola's side have a strong chance of reclaiming the title. Without him, City's most realistic target would be securing a top-four finish. When a title-contending team seems so dependent on one player, it usually raises concerns. But Pep Guardiola will be pleased. Haaland is so good that he can change the course of events in any match. He's the finest finisher of this generation. He's already worthy of comparisons with legends of the past," said the former Liverpool player.

❌ Rodri is struggling to reach the required form. The Ballon d'Or winner is sidelined for the third time this season due to injury, with his knee troubling him for the second consecutive time. Abdukodir Khusanov has been out for an extended period after injuring his ankle in the 5th round of the Premier League. Midfielder Nico Gonzalez also couldn't finish the match against Villarreal due to a leg issue.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The main referee for the match is Michael Oliver. Over his last 20 Premier League matches, he averages 3.4 yellow cards per game. The rivalry between these two teams has grown more intense with each passing year. Last season, they evenly shared the yellow cards, totaling 12, but never descended into outright rough play. In their last six encounters, an average of four cautions were issued per game. Considering Michael Oliver's officiating style, it's likely neither side will be keen on frequent stoppages due to fouls. Our prediction: total yellow cards under 4.5.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Let's focus on the head-to-head clashes between these clubs. Even before Unai Emery's arrival at Aston Villa, their meetings were intense and entertaining. In 7 out of the last 9 matches, at least three goals were scored. This season, Manchester City have been vulnerable on the road, allowing an average of 1.12 chances per game. Aston Villa often exceed expectations, scoring more than expected in 4 out of 5 matches. We believe that both teams will deliver in terms of goals. We back this belief with a bet on total goals over 2.5.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Unai Emery relies more on wing play compared to Pep Guardiola. Of course, City boasts speedy wingers as well, but they tend to favor dribbling moves, like Jeremy Doku and, to a lesser extent, Phil Foden. Their preferred tactic is cutting inside. This affects the number of set-pieces near the sidelines, with the "Sky Blues" having the fewest away corners in the Premier League alongside Leeds, averaging just 2.5. The odds for a low corner count for the visitors are much lower. It makes sense to choose Manchester City total corners under 5.5.

Recent European competition losses have affected the bookmakers' odds, with Aston Villa's standing taking a hit. However, we suggest revisiting the Birmingham side's match against Go Ahead Eagles, even if it's just through highlights. It will be clear how skillful the "Lions" were in creating chances, despite their lack of clinical finishing. We anticipate Evan Gassan might start on the bench. Despite a short roster, Unai Emery has enough attacking options to save him for the final minutes of the match. On the other hand, imagining Manchester City without Erling Haaland is quite difficult, and fortunately for the "Citizens," the Norwegian is in top shape.

With both teams expected to field near-optimal lineups, an entertaining clash is on the cards. We believe the high standards set by the opponents in previous games will continue here. In 8 of the last 9 head-to-head encounters, both teams have found the net, a scenario we anticipate again this time around. Given the high-scoring nature displayed by both sides this autumn, a thrilling 2-2 draw seems a fair prediction here. Our primary bet recommendation is – both teams to score (yes).