Chelsea vs Ajax Prediction for 23 October 2025 - Football

🔈 Can the Dutch side impose their style and break their losing streak? One of the most intriguing matchups of the third round of the Champions League is the clash between Chelsea and Ajax at Stamford Bridge. Although Ajax are not in their best form, the club has a history of pulling off surprises in big matches. This trip to the English capital is another opportunity for Johnny Heitinga's squad to earn their first points of the current European season. Despite several intriguing factors, bookmakers predict a convincing victory for the home side, giving them nine-to-one odds.

Head-to-Head

📊 The teams have only faced each other twice in official head-to-head encounters. This happened during the group stage of the 2019/20 Champions League. Back then, Erik ten Hag's formidable squad suffered a narrow defeat to the "Blues" at the Johan Cruyff Arena (0-1), but in London, fans witnessed a true thriller with a 4-4 draw. That encounter left a lasting impression on the hearts and minds of Chelsea supporters. Can the current Ajax squad secure their first-ever victory against Chelsea? We'll find out very soon.

Chelsea Team Overview

🔵 After their triumph at the Club World Cup, Chelsea are facing high expectations not only from their fans but also from neutral observers. The start of the season has been inconsistent for the Blues, as they went three consecutive matches without a win in the domestic league. However, things have since stabilized, and Enzo Maresca's squad have secured the 5th spot in the Premier League standings. In European competitions, it's worth noting their deserved away defeat to Bayern Munich (1-3) and a hard-fought home victory over Benfica (1-0). Both matches could have ended differently, but they highlight a key point—Chelsea remain a vulnerable side with numerous issues that the Italian manager needs to address.

📌 Last weekend, the Blues made a trip to the City Ground to face Nottingham Forest (3-0). The London club showcased their clinical finishing, as evidenced by the expected goals ratio: 2.35 to 1.68 in favor of Forest. Enzo Maresca typically employs a 4-2-3-1 formation, featuring pacey wingers and a mobile forward capable of dropping deep. It's important to note that Stamford Bridge is a fortress for Chelsea and their squad. In 2025, they suffered only two home defeats across all competitions—to Brighton (1-3) and Legia Warsaw (1-2).

Ajax Amsterdam Team Overview

⚪ Since Erik ten Hag's departure, Ajax have seemingly become a mere stepping stone on the international stage. Even in their wildest dreams, fans no longer anticipate a Champions League semifinal berth. Last season, under the guidance of young Italian coach Francesco Farioli, there was a glimmer of hope for a brighter future. The Amsterdam side fought tooth and nail for national championship glory and secured a coveted spot in Europe's premier club competition. However, the 36-year-old coach opted not to stay at Ajax's helm, instead accepting an offer from Porto. Currently, the team is led by John Heitinga, who last season worked as an assistant in Arne Slot's coaching staff at Liverpool.

🔴 The new season hasn't started well for Ajax. In the national league, the capital club have earned just 16 points after 9 rounds, which leaves them in a modest 4th place on the table, trailing the leader by 9 points. Last weekend, the 'Sons of the Gods' disappointed their fans with a home defeat to AZ Alkmaar (0-2). Ajax's possession was sterile, and they severely lacked sharpness in their attacking phases. As for their Champions League campaign, the situation is even bleaker – they suffered goalless defeats against Inter Milan (0-2) and Marseille (0-4). At this point, Ajax and Olympiacos remain the only teams in the tournament yet to find the back of the net.

Latest news

Chelsea

📰 The recent match against Nottingham Forest (3-0) was a landmark for Josh Acheampong, as the 19-year-old defender netted his debut goal for Chelsea. Reflecting on the moment, the English center-back said: "I still can't believe it. It's an incredible moment for me and my entire family. I'm grateful to God for this opportunity. It's truly inspiring to come through Chelsea's academy and eventually step onto the pitch for the first team." This season, the defender has already made five appearances across all competitions and is gradually becoming an indispensable figure for Chelsea.

🎤 After a crucial victory in the national league, Enzo Maresca spoke to the media: "I always try to choose the best option. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. We knew Lavia wouldn't play all 90 minutes, and the same goes for Caicedo. Garnacho performed well against Liverpool, so it was right to start him again. Guiu also integrated well into the game today. Joao Pedro started up front because we anticipated Forest would play with four at the back, a scenario where he excels. At halftime, I told the guys that while we were decent without the ball, our possession play was lacking. We gave it away too easily. We made a few adjustments in the second half, and the game improved."

❌ Chelsea's injury list is extensive: Benoit Badiashile (muscle injury), Levi Colwill (knee injury), Liam Delap (hamstring injury), Dario Essugo (thigh injury), Cole Palmer (groin injury), Enzo Fernandez (knee injury). Additionally, Joao Pedro will be unavailable due to suspension.

Ajax Amsterdam

📰 Dutch football legend and Ajax icon Marco van Basten has weighed in on the current state of the club following their humiliating 4-0 defeat to Marseille: “This is what we feared, but we didn't expect complete chaos from the start. I see no organization, just madness: they press high, play one-on-one, but why? From the first minute, they were wide open. It's a suicidal tactic. Going to Marseille and playing one-on-one from the start… Yes, it's bold, but reckless. Players end up in positions where they shouldn't be because they don't drop back. On the second goal – just fall back. They keep pressing high but don't control the ball. If you're going to play like that, do it wisely – you're not up against amateurs.”

❌ In the Dutch club's injury list are Steven Berghuis (groin injury) and Branco van den Boomen (back injury).

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

This European clash will be officiated by a team of referees led by German Felix Zwayer. Notably, this season, Zwayer has shown his strictness, averaging around 5.22 cautions per match. Moreover, he issues a red card in nearly every other game (0.44). Let's look at the average number of yellow cards each team has received this season: Chelsea – 5.2, Ajax – 4.4. Our pick is over 3.5 total yellow cards.

⚽ Goals Prediction

In 7 of Chelsea's last 8 matches, there have been at least 3 goals scored. A similar trend is seen in 4 of Ajax's last 5 games. The only head-to-head encounter at Stamford Bridge ended in a goal fest – 4:4. Considering the Blues' defensive instability and Ajax's lack of balance across their lines, we anticipate a high-scoring affair. The most reasonable prediction is over 3 total goals.

🚩 Corner Kicks Prediction

Let's note the average number of corners conceded by each team this season: Chelsea – 4, Ajax – 4.6. The London club aims to control the pace with possession play, while transitional phases are not their strongest suit. In 6 of Chelsea's last 7 matches, there have been no more than 10 corners. A similar trend is observed in 7 of Ajax's last 8 encounters. Our editorial choice is under 10.5 total corners.

A highly vulnerable Ajax side is set to visit the British Isles this time around. It's unrealistic to expect miracles from John Heitinga and his squad—Amsterdam's team appears too disjointed and unbalanced at the moment. There's little evidence that Ajax can deliver in big matches, and it's unclear what style of play the new coach is aiming for. Despite a significant number of injured players, Chelsea remain the clear favorites, and the home crowd should bolster their chances of success. We predict a final score of 4-1, with the key bet being Chelsea to win with a -1.5 handicap.