Athletic vs Qarabag Prediction for 23 October 2025 - Football

🔊 Can Athletic handle the sensational Qarabag at San Mames? The opponents enter this head-to-head clash in strikingly different forms. The Azerbaijanis are riding high, sitting sixth with a perfect record after two rounds. Meanwhile, the Spaniards find themselves third from the bottom following two consecutive defeats. Will the visitors extend their successful streak, or can the hosts break their unfortunate run? Let's evaluate the teams' odds in our editorial's prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 The teams have not faced each other before.

Athletic Bilbao Team Overview

The Basques were recently in a prolonged slump. Their winless streak, during which they managed just one draw, stretched to six matches. During this time, Athletic fell from second to ninth place in La Liga and suffered two Champions League defeats—against Arsenal (0-2) and Borussia Dortmund (1-4). The international break provided some respite. Just before the break, the "Lions" secured a victory over Mallorca (2-1), and immediately after, they drew away with Elche (0-0). However, the draw was far from convincing. The hosts dominated the entire game, enjoying 69% possession and outshooting their opponents nearly fourfold (15 to 4). Ernesto Valverde's side only managed to keep a clean sheet thanks to the efforts of Unai Simón and Aymeric Laporte.

We previously highlighted the heroics of Aymeric Laporte and Unai Simón, but let's take a closer look at their performances. Athletic's main goalkeeper earned the title of the match's standout player against Elche with his resolute goal-line play. He made five saves and prevented 0.83 expected goals. Laporte excelled in aerial duels, winning 75%, and led in clearances with eight.

Qarabag Team Overview

Gurban Gurbanov's team has emerged as the standout revelation of this season's Champions League. After two group stage matches, the "stallions" have secured the sixth spot with a perfect record. Along the way, they have taken down Benfica (3-2) and Copenhagen (2-0). These victories were far from flukes. In neither match did the Azerbaijani side fall behind in possession, maintaining an average of 48% ball control. Moreover, they attacked more dangerously than their opponents, accumulating a total of 3.73 xG. Qarabag are also thriving in their domestic league, sitting at the top after seven rounds, with a game in hand.

The French forward Abdellah Zoubir has hit a rich vein of form recently. The former Lens player is now in his eighth season with Qarabag. Over the past six matches, the forward has recorded 3+1 in terms of goals and assists. Notably, he contributed in both group stage rounds of the Champions League—providing an assist against Benfica and scoring against Copenhagen.

Latest news

Athletic Bilbao

🎙 Athletic's head coach commented on the draw against Elche in the latest La Liga round. "I wouldn't say we started the game poorly, but the fact is, our opponents began very well. The visitors outperformed us in the opening stages, and we weren't particularly sharp around their goal. The most positive takeaway for my team is that we managed to secure a draw after that. I don't believe we lost two points," said Ernesto Valverde.

❌ Beñat Prados and Unai Eguiluz continue their recovery from knee injuries. Yeray Álvarez is sidelined due to a doping suspension. On the bright side, Iñaki Williams has returned to the squad. His injury against Mallorca was minor, and he played the entire second half in the next match against Elche.

Qarabag

🎙 Qarabag's head coach shared insights on their preparation for Athletic Bilbao. "I've done some preliminary study of our opponent, but we haven't completed a full analysis yet. Athletic Bilbao is one of the teams showcasing highly dynamic play, as the stats reveal. We'll aim to impose our own style," stated Gurban Gurbanov.

❌ Qarabag's summer signing, Honatan Caballero, is yet to make his debut. The former Rayo Vallecano player is recovering from a thigh injury. However, Marko Jankovic made his return to the pitch for the first time since the match against Benfica. He played 14 minutes in the latest league round and is expected to at least make the squad against Athletic.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by the main referee Igor Pajac from Croatia. His average for yellow cards in the local league stands at four over the last 20 matches. Athletic's fouling statistics have been intriguing since their game against Borussia. The Basques seem to have shaken off their slump-induced lethargy and are now engaging more aggressively. They averaged 3.3 bookings over their last three matches, while the Azerbaijani side averaged 2.3 over the same span. Both teams will approach the game with different objectives but are equally charged for a battle and a result. We anticipate a highly intense match, so we're betting on total yellow cards over 3.5.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Ernesto Valverde's Athletic has never been an offensive powerhouse. The coach's style leans towards pragmatic victories, and even those have been challenging lately. The Williams brothers are still regaining form post-injury. Overall, the "Lions" haven't been prolific in front of goal—failing to score more than two goals in 21 of their last 22 matches. Our prediction: Athletic's total goals under 2.5.

🚩 Corner Prediction

In our analysis of Qarabag, we noted how tenacious Gurban Gurbanov's team is in terms of possession. The "Riders" seem unfazed by the class of their Champions League opponents, conceding minimal territorial advantage (averaging 52%). They are quite versatile in their attacking play, frequently utilizing set pieces. For instance, in 19 consecutive away games, the Azerbaijani side has delivered no fewer than three corners. The odds for this metric to go over are quite appealing. Hence, we'll go with: Qarabag total corners over 2.5.

The stellar performances from the Azerbaijani side in the first two rounds of the Champions League have yet to convince the bookmakers of their potential. Despite Athletic's questionable form, the visitors are heavily underestimated in the odds compared to the hosts. We see this disparity as a significant injustice and believe Qarabag still has the potential to surprise fans.

Athletic are unlikely to score more than two goals even at San Mamés, given that they have failed to do so in 10 of their last 11 matches. Furthermore, the Basque team last defeated an opponent by a two-goal margin 13 official games ago. Qarabag have scored against every team they've faced in the Champions League, totaling eight clubs (including qualification). We expect Athletic Bilbao to become the ninth on that list. A logical outcome would be a high-scoring draw (1-1). Given these factors, a bet on Qarabag to win with a +1.5 handicap seems reasonable.