Kairat vs Pafos Prediction for 22 October 2025 - Football

🔊 How will the clash between the surprise packages of the Champions League qualifiers unfold in the main stage? Both Kairat and Pafos have made their debut in Europe's premier club competition, with the Cypriots even securing their first point. The Kazakh side, however, are still looking to open their account. Playing their second consecutive match at the "Almaty Ortalyk" presents a great opportunity to set a new club record in European competitions. The same goes for the visitors. Let's dive into our editorial's prediction to assess which team has the upper hand.

Head-to-Head

📊 The teams have not faced each other before.

Kairat Almaty Team Overview

Head coach Rafael Urazbakhtin of Kairat doesn't make significant rotations based on the tournament. Even in the Champions League, their main squad hasn't been able to avoid heavy defeats (1-4 against Sporting and 0-5 against Real Madrid). However, in the league, with just one round remaining, the "Red and Yellows" are sitting comfortably at the top with a three-point lead over second-placed Astana. In the main European competition, things aren't as bleak as they seem. The scorelines from both matches don't reflect how fiercely Kairat battled, how many micro-moments they won, and their relentless attacking until the end. They didn't just sit back and endure; they consistently challenged both Real and Sporting.

Dastan Satpayev has received plenty of praise. The 17-year-old forward is Kairat's key asset. Although he hasn't scored in the main stage of the Champions League yet, in the Kazakhstan league, he's on a scoring streak with five goals in four matches. His attacking partner, Jorginho, also deserves a mention. The Portuguese forward joined the club this winter as the top scorer from Luxembourg's Differdange, where he netted 36 times over two years. This season in Kazakhstan's top division, he hasn't slowed down, recording 10 goals and 7 assists in 25 games.

Pafos Team Overview

Former Unai Emery assistant Juan Carlos Carcedo has been making significant strides in Pafos for three productive years now. During this period, he has guided the club to their first local league title in four years and achieved a historic qualification for the Champions League. In Europe's premier competition, unlike Kairat, the Cypriots have already picked up their first points with an away draw against Olympiacos (0-0). They've even netted their first goal in a home fixture against Bayern Munich (1-5). Across these two encounters, Carcedo's squad managed just 0.69 xG, suggesting their conversion rate is on point. This is further evidenced by their five-match winning streak in the league, where they've scored 15 goals.

In the current Cyprus Championship, Pafos are the most prolific team, netting 16 goals compared to 14 by their closest rival. Particularly impressive lately are forwards Anderson and Domingos Quina. Each has scored three goals over the last three league matches. Notably, Anderson isn't a regular starter this season; he scored two of his three goals coming off the bench. Additionally, the team's star player, former Chelsea and Arsenal defender David Luiz, made his debut start and scored in the last round of the Cypriot top flight.

Latest news

Kairat Almaty

🎙 Kairat player Yegor Sorokin shared insights from the club's locker room during their match against Real. "At halftime, the head coach told us we were playing well and needed to capitalize on the chances that would come, and to keep playing the same way. There weren't any major adjustments. He highlighted a few moments from the match where we needed to play tighter or where we did well. After the match, he thanked everyone, saying there were no complaints and that we need to move forward with important matches ahead, shifting our focus in the locker room to the league games," the defender noted.

❌ Kairat's injury list has significantly decreased compared to the match against Real. Georgy Zaria and Temirlan Anarbekov have recovered from injuries and even made appearances on the field. However, Elder Santana, Joao Paulo, and Anatoly Zarutsky remain sidelined.

Pafos

🎙 David Luiz has opened up about why he accepted an offer from Pafos. The player has signed a contract with the Cypriot club until the end of the 2026/27 season. "I've always been happy playing in Europe and have loved it. I've known this club and its owners for a long time. When the opportunity arose, I came here and I'm very glad to be part of it. Pafos is led by honest people, people with ambitions. They want to develop the team and the project, and I'm happy to help them with that," shared the Brazilian defender.

❌ Pafos defender Pedrao remains out of the squad. The summer signing has only managed to play six minutes across all competitions for the club. However, he won't be returning to the field anytime soon, having recently undergone knee surgery.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by Chris Kavanagh from England. Over his last 20 Premier League matches, he has averaged 3.6 yellow cards per game. Both teams tend to play cleanly, even against more formidable opponents. In their last two matches, Kairat accumulated four cautions while Pafos received three. However, we anticipate an intense atmosphere in Almaty, as both sides aim for a historic victory in the main European tournament. Our prediction: total yellow cards over 3.5.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

It's not entirely fair to compare the teams' scoring in their domestic leagues, so let's focus on their performance in the Champions League qualifiers and main stage. Both teams typically rely on a defensive strategy to achieve results. In 6 of Pafos's 8 matches, there were two or fewer goals, while Kairat saw this in 7 out of 10 games. We don't expect a goal fest in the upcoming match. Editor's choice: total goals under 2.5.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Kairat, despite often playing on the back foot, displays versatility in attack. They employ dynamic counterattacks and effective positional play against teams of equal or lesser strength. Notably, they excel in set pieces, including corners. Even with limited possession against the likes of Celtic, Sporting, and Real Madrid, the Almaty side managed to earn at least three corners. Given their home advantage, it's reasonable to bet on Kairat's total corners over 3.5.

The upcoming clash presents a genuine opportunity for both teams to secure a historic victory in the Champions League. The key difference is that Kairat are wrapping up their campaign in the Kazakhstan Premier League, with the final round set for the weekend against Astana, who sit second and trail by just three points, making their head-to-head a potential title decider. Despite his reluctance for excessive rotation, Rafael Urazbakhtin might rest some players ahead of the season-defining match in Kazakhstan.

Pafos have been impressive on the road, suffering just one slip-up—a draw with Olympiacos—across seven games since the start of the UCL qualifiers. However, it's worth noting that any club's trip to Almaty is a true test of resilience. A draw (1-1) seems the most reasonable outcome for this encounter, making the bet that Pafos will not lose a strong choice.