Bayern vs Dortmund Prediction for 19 October 2025 - Football

🔊 The highlight of Saturday's Bundesliga action in Matchday 7 is the "Der Klassiker" in Munich: the undisputed league leaders Bayern host Borussia Dortmund, who are right on their heels. Neither team has suffered a defeat in any competition this season, but the hosts boast a perfect record with all victories, while the visitors have been held to a few draws. This clash holds significant importance for both sides: for Kompany's men, it's a chance to pull away from their main rival, while Kovac's squad has the opportunity to close the gap to just one point. Last season at the Allianz Arena, the teams played out a thrilling draw. What will happen this time? Let's delve into the prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 In the last 54 derbies between Germany's most decorated clubs, Bayern have claimed victory 32 times, while Borussia have won 12, with 10 matches ending in a draw. Two of those draws occurred last year: a 1-1 at Signal Iduna Park and a 2-2 at Allianz Arena.

Bayern Munich Team Overview

🔴 The Munich side are unstoppable, leaving no one in their wake. Before the international break, Vincent Kompany's team traveled to Frankfurt and confidently defeated Eintracht 3-0. Luis Diaz bagged a brace and provided an assist for Harry Kane, with Gnabry and Guerreiro setting up the goals. This marked the club's tenth victory in ten matches this season and their first clean sheet on the road.

⚪ Bayern rightfully top the league, boasting the most goals scored (25) and the fewest conceded (3). The scoring charts are dominated by Munich's players: Harry Kane has racked up 14 points (11 goals, 3 assists) in six matches, Luis Diaz has 9 (5 goals, 4 assists), Serge Gnabry has 6 (3 goals, 3 assists), and Michael Olise has 5 (3 goals, 2 assists). However, Bayern have failed to beat Borussia in their last three encounters, two of which were at home. The players are surely aware of this and are determined to break this streak by securing their 11th consecutive win.

Borussia Dortmund Team Overview

🟡 The "Bumblebees" remain unbeaten: 9 matches across all competitions, including three draws, two of which are in the league. One of these was in the last round at Signal Iduna Park against Leipzig (1-1). Dortmund conceded early from a set piece, but Jan Couto leveled the score by mid-first half. The match was highly competitive: possession was split 50-50, with both sides having 3 shots on target and 7 corners. Leipzig had a slight edge in xG—1.09 compared to 0.90. This result didn't allow Borussia to close the gap on Bayern, leaving them 4 points behind and just one point ahead of Leipzig. A setback in Munich could see them drop out of the top three if Stuttgart and Leipzig win their respective matches.

⚫ On the bright side, Dortmund have not lost to Bayern in their last three encounters, winning one of them—a significant psychological boost for Kovac and his squad. Borussia have conceded just 4 goals, the second-best record in the league behind Munich. Offensively, they are consistent too: 12 goals in 6 rounds, with Serhou Guirassy scoring 4 and adding an assist. However, he's been goalless in the last three rounds, and the clash at Allianz Arena could be his opportunity to get back on the scoresheet.

Latest news

Bayern Munich

🎙️ Vincent Kompany on the upcoming "Der Klassiker": "We have a special motivation for this 'Clasico': first against second, both teams unbeaten. We're eagerly anticipating this game. Dortmund are consistent, with experienced players and standout individuals like Serhou Guirassy – he doesn't need many chances to score. They're a strong opponent, but we're playing at home and are looking forward to the match with great anticipation. I hope the fans enjoy it and we achieve a good result."

📝 According to Bild, Saudi club Al-Hilal has offered Harry Kane a contract with a salary of €100 million per year. The Saudis are ready to sign the forward to a three-year deal worth a total of €300 million. Meanwhile, Bayern are showing interest in Crystal Palace and England defender Marc Guehi, as reported by journalist Florian Plettenberg.

❌ On the injury front, Jamal Musiala continues his recovery and has started running sessions. His return is expected in December. Raphael Guerreiro picked up an injury in the match against Eintracht but is already training with the team. Josip Stanišić, Alphonso Davies, Hiroki Ito, and goalkeeper Jonas Urbig will miss the encounter.

Borussia Dortmund

🎙️ Niko Kovac ahead of the match against Bayern: "It's unique. Bayern are the favorites, and we're the underdogs, but we intend to make life difficult for them. If we play with the same courage as we did in the second half of our last head-to-head, we'll have our chances. Defense alone won't cut it here – against such an opponent, we need to be aggressive, compact, and support each other in every duel. We must give it our all; otherwise, there won't even be a chance. Only teamwork works."

📝 Bayern, Barcelona, and Real Madrid are showing interest in Borussia's defender Nico Schlotterbeck. However, according to Florian Plettenberg, he is close to extending his contract. Bild also reports that midfielder Job Bellingham might leave the club due to a lack of playing time, with Ruben Amorim personally interested (Manchester United). ESPN adds that Barcelona are considering Karim Adeyemi as a potential replacement for Robert Lewandowski – the German is valued at €60 million.

❌ In terms of squad news, Emre Can, Aaron Anselmino, and Julien Duranville have returned to training. Nico Schlotterbeck missed the last session due to a cold, and Ramy Bensebaini just returned from international duty, but both should be ready for the game.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The main referee for the match is Bastian Dankert. Over his last 10 matches, he has averaged 3.5 yellow cards per game. The average total of yellow cards in the head-to-head encounters between these teams is also 3.5. Prediction: Bayern to receive over 1.5 yellow cards. This bet has come through in all of the last 6 rounds.

⚽ Goal Prediction

There is no doubt about Bayern's scoring prowess, despite Dortmund's solid defense. Borussia have scored in every one of their 9 matches across all competitions this season. Our pick is both teams to score (yes), as this has happened in 8 of the last 10 derbies.

🚩 Corner Prediction

After 6 rounds, Bayern have earned 30 corners (averaging 5 per match), while Borussia have earned 31. Prediction: Bayern's total corners under 7.5 – this bet has been successful in 14 consecutive head-to-head matches.

Both teams are impressive, but what Bayern, particularly Harry Kane, are demonstrating is a serious bid for the treble. However, the Munich side need to break their winless streak against Dortmund first. Borussia have shown solid defense in recent matches and would be content with a draw, but Kovac is heading to Munich with more than just a defensive mindset. With attacking talents like Guirassy, Brandt, and Adeyemi, any counterattack from the visitors could be dangerous.

We anticipate a high-scoring match and still believe in a home victory with a score of 3-1, predicting Bayern's individual total to exceed 2.5 goals—a bet that has hit in nine consecutive matches. Furthermore, Borussia have already conceded three goals away in this Bundesliga season—during the first round against St Pauli, as well as four goals in one half during their Champions League match in Turin against Juventus.