Brighton vs Newcastle Prediction for 18 October 2025 - Football

🔊 Brighton and Newcastle are neck and neck, not only in terms of odds but also in Premier League points. Their clash promises to be fiercely competitive, even if it doesn't quite qualify as the match of the week. Adding to the intrigue is the fact that the Magpies haven't managed to outplay the Seagulls for over two years. Who will claim victory in this 'bird' derby this time? Our editorial team offers an insightful prediction on the teams' chances.

Head-to-Head

📊 Newcastle have struggled against Brighton, particularly in recent years. In their last 10 Premier League encounters, the Seagulls have the edge with four wins to Newcastle's two. The sides have also shared the spoils on four occasions. Since 2023, the Magpies have been unable to secure three points in their last five consecutive meetings.

Brighton & Hove Albion Team Overview

Fabian Hürzeler's team are on an impressive four-match unbeaten run. However, a couple of draws have kept Brighton from climbing higher than mid-table. Interestingly, their upcoming opponents, Newcastle, share a similar record. The key difference is that the Seagulls tend to drop points against teams of equal or lower standing while snatching victories from more prestigious sides. In the penultimate round, the Seaside club triumphed over Chelsea (3-1), but they couldn't secure a win against Wolverhampton (1-1) in the following match. Despite dominating possession (58% to 42%) and creating more chances (17 shots to 6), they only managed to equalize late in the game.

Brighton seem to unveil new heroes in almost every matchday. Against Wolverhampton, summer signing Stefanos Tsimas earned his first Premier League points. The former Nürnberg forward from the second Bundesliga scored 12 goals last season. Making just his third appearance in England's top flight, he provided an assist for Jan Paul van Hecke. Overall, the 19-year-old striker is finding his form. Following his debut assist, the youngster joined Germany's U21 squad, scoring once against both Latvia and Greece in European Championship qualifiers.

Newcastle United Team Overview

Newcastle's results have started to improve compared to the beginning of the season. While they managed just one victory in their first six matches across the Premier League and Champions League, they've secured three wins in their next four games. During this period, the Magpies only fell to Arsenal in added time (1-2). They also advanced past Bradford City in the EFL Cup (4-1), and claimed victories over Union Saint-Gilloise in the Champions League (4-0) and Nottingham Forest in the Premier League (2-0). These matches have been the most prolific for the Magpies this season, as Eddie Howe's side had not scored more than one goal in a game prior.

The club's most expensive summer signing, Nick Woltemade, is hitting his stride. The German forward is on a scoring streak across all competitions and also found the net for his national team against Northern Ireland in World Cup qualifying. Bruno Guimarães has been equally impressive. The Brazilian midfielder scored the winning goal against Nottingham and provided two assists during the international break in friendlies against South Korea and Japan.

Latest news

Brighton & Hove Albion

🎙 Brighton's head coach has emerged as a candidate for the managerial position at Manchester United. The German tactician remains composed about such rumors. "Challenging decisions and rumors are an integral part of our work, so we must accept and deal with them. But I want to say that I have great respect for Rúben Amorim. It is a great honor for me to be the coach of Brighton. I am very happy at the club, and we still have a lot to accomplish," said Fabian Hürzeler.

❌ Brighton have recently suffered significant setbacks. In their match against Chelsea, two players were sidelined: Kaoru Mitoma and Joël Veltman. Two games prior, Jack Hinshelwood picked up an injury. Diego Gómez had an unfortunate stint with the Paraguay national team, injuring his thigh in a friendly against South Korea.

Newcastle United

💰 Not all of Newcastle's summer signings are paying off. Yoane Wissa, who joined from Brentford for €57.7 million, has yet to make his debut for the club. The reason being, he sustained an injury while playing for DR Congo just days after signing with the Magpies. However, the forward might still offer some minimal benefit to the team. The British press reports that FIFA now intends to compensate Newcastle with £6.5 million to cover Wissa's wages while he recovers from a knee injury.

❌ Besides Yoane Wissa, Tino Livramento and Jacob Ramsey, who have been sidelined with injuries during the season, the team has also lost Lewis Miley. The 19-year-old Newcastle academy product was becoming increasingly involved with the first team, clocking up 291 minutes across all competitions before picking up an injury.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by the referee Craig Pawson. His average for yellow cards in the last 20 Premier League matches stands at 3.9. This borderline number should keep the teams on edge, as their last six head-to-head encounters have averaged 5.5 bookings. Brighton have a knack for getting under their opponents' skin. In their match against Chelsea, Trevoh Chalobah couldn't finish the game, and in the 7th round, Wolverhampton's head coach Vitor Pereira lost his cool. We anticipate an eventful match. Our prediction: total yellow cards over 3.5.

⚽️ Goal Predictions

Brighton have only failed to score in one of their last nine matches across all competitions. That happened away against Everton, despite the Seagulls registering 2.08 xG. In their head-to-head clashes, Newcastle's net hasn't remained untouched in 8 of the last 9 games. Moreover, both teams have found the back of the net in 7 of those 9 encounters. Newcastle's attack is waking up, having scored 11 goals in their last four matches. A bet on both teams to score (yes) seems very plausible.

🚩 Corner Predictions

Brighton often cede initiative to their opponents and build their play around them. In only 1 of their last 7 Premier League fixtures did the Seagulls dominate possession – against Everton. This results in a low number of set-pieces in front of the opposition's goal. Over seven rounds, Fabian Hürzeler's team averages just 4.29 corners. It's almost certain that in the upcoming game, the hosts will concede initiative to Newcastle with their formidable midfield. We expect that Brighton's total corners will be under 4.5.

Let's start with Brighton once more. For Newcastle, the "Seagulls" are a tricky opponent, much like they are for any top English team. Known for their solid performances against strong opponents and inconsistency against weaker ones, Brighton have a reputation to uphold. Eddie Howe's side, with their recent seasons' results and Champions League involvement, have earned a spot among the Premier League elite.

The head-to-head history doesn't favor the "Magpies." Their last three league encounters ended in draws, suggesting a similar outcome (1-1) might be on the cards for the upcoming match. For betting purposes, our main recommendation is to back Brighton not to lose.