Burnley vs Leeds Prediction for 18 October 2025 - Football

🔊 Matchday 8 in the Premier League brings us a clash between last season's Championship frontrunners, Burnley and Leeds. Both teams amassed 100 points and secured promotion with ease. However, their start in the top flight hasn't been as smooth, particularly for Burnley. Scott Parker's side have gradually slipped down the table and now find themselves in the relegation zone. The "Peacocks" are faring better, sitting in 14th place with a four-point cushion above the drop. The encounter at Turf Moor on October 18 won't drastically alter the standings but could allow the hosts to close the gap on Leeds. Will the visitors let that happen? We'll delve into that in our prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 Although both teams have been considered "yo-yo clubs," they have crossed paths more frequently in the Premier League in recent years. Since 2020, they've faced each other four times in the Premier League and twice in the Championship last season. Over this period, Leeds have claimed four victories, while Burnley managed to celebrate just once. The teams also played to a draw on one occasion. In 4 out of these 6 encounters, the total goals scored did not exceed 2.5.

Burnley Team Overview

The promising start to the season for the Clarets, with two wins in their first three matches across all competitions, has given way to a prolonged winless streak. This run now stretches to six games. During this period, Burnley were knocked out of the English League Cup by Cardiff and have slipped into the Premier League relegation zone, currently sitting 18th. To be fair, Scott Parker's side has faced a daunting fixture list in the league. Their weakest opponent during this stretch was a struggling Nottingham Forest, where they managed to pick up a point (1-1). The other matches ended in losses. Despite accumulating only 2.31 xG in these games, they remarkably scored four goals.

Despite recent results, clear leaders have emerged within the Clarets' ranks. The standout performer is Jaidon Anthony. Over seven Premier League rounds, he has netted four goals—half of his tally from last season in the Championship. Additionally, two new club signings have hit good form: defender Quilindschy Hartman and forward Lesley Ugochukwu. This duo shone in the match against Aston Villa. Ugochukwu scored from a Hartman assist and earned Man of the Match honors, despite only playing 22 minutes as a substitute.

Leeds United Team Overview

Daniel Farke's side have been alternating between collecting points and dropping them. Since the start of the Premier League season, every draw or win has invariably been followed by a defeat. In the previous round, the Peacocks suffered their first home defeat of the season against Tottenham (1-2). The match narrative was reminiscent of their game against Bournemouth (2-2). In both encounters, Leeds were more threatening in attack, registering a total of 35 shots with an overall xG of 3.53 compared to their opponents' 1.75 xG. It's fair to say that Farke's team lacks consistency. However, even at this pace, they occupy 14th place with a comfortable cushion above the relegation zone.

Newcomer Noah Okafor has recently hit a rich vein of form. His second goal for the club came swiftly, with Tottenham being the latest victims. This achievement has propelled the Swiss player to become Leeds' top scorer. Anton Stach and Sean Longstaff have also contributed equally in terms of goal involvements, both recording 1 goal and 1 assist.

Latest news

Burnley

🎙 Kyle Walker is one of two Burnley players who have logged the most minutes on the pitch for the club. The 35-year-old defender made a move this summer, and age doesn't seem to be slowing him down. Here's how he describes his capabilities: "I'm still fast, but to be honest with myself, I've probably lost a bit of my edge. But if you're lucky enough to lose a bit of your form while already being quick, it means you're still fast."

❌ Burnley have been without Jordan Beyer, Zeki Amdouni, and Connor Roberts for some time now due to injuries. During the international break, Lyle Foster joined them on the sidelines after leaving the South Africa squad early. The team's star player, Jaidon Anthony, couldn't finish the match against Aston Villa due to a quadriceps injury. However, he spent the international break recovering at the club, and the head coach is counting on him.

Leeds United

🎙 Leeds United's head coach has praised their upcoming opponents ahead of the clash with Burnley. "Scott Parker has done a fantastic job there. They faced a tough schedule at the start of the season, but they have been competitive in every match. I don't expect this game to be easy for us. In matches where they had genuine opportunities to collect points, they did so. It's a good start to the season, especially in terms of scoring. I anticipate a tense and competitive game," said Daniel Farke.

❌ Ahead of the match against Tottenham, Leeds had Lucas Perry, Willy Gnonto, and Daniel James sidelined. According to the head coach, James is expected to return in a few weeks, while Perry and Gnonto should be back after the international break.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The main referee for the match is Tim Robinson. He hasn't officiated in the Premier League this season yet, but in the last five rounds of the previous season, he averaged three yellow cards per match. The recent matches of both teams in the current championship have been relatively calm. Burnley's games saw fewer than 3.5 yellow cards in 4 out of 5 matches, while Leeds never exceeded this mark. Considering both teams come from the tough Championship, we'll raise the bar slightly. Our prediction: total yellow cards under 4.5.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Burnley have shown competitive play even against more renowned opponents, as noted by Daniel Farke in his pre-match interview. The Clarets managed to score in 5 out of 7 Premier League rounds. Leeds' stats are slightly less impressive, with three opponents leaving with clean sheets after facing the Peacocks. However, the visiting team's attack has recently found its form. We believe that both teams have the capability to score.

🚩 Corner Prediction

The upcoming opponents are evenly matched, so a significant advantage in possession is unlikely. Scott Parker advocates for a more pragmatic style of play. Last season in the Championship, playing defensively brought his team success. Even in home matches against similarly ranked opponents this season, the Clarets have conceded territorial advantage. As a result, they have earned fewer than 4.5 corners in 7 out of 9 games across all competitions. We'll stick with this bet. Editor's choice: Burnley total corners under 4.5.

Scott Parker and his team can finally catch their breath after an intense start to the Premier League season. The hectic early schedule is now easing into matches against teams from the lower half of the table. However, looking back at previous results, it's clear that the Clarets, even with limited attacking opportunities, can pull off surprises. In every match where they found the net, their expected goals were lower than their actual tally. Notably, Leeds have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their four away games across all competitions this season. With these factors in mind, we're anticipating goals from both sides and predicting a 1-1 draw as the final scoreline. Our main bet, considering the teams' statistics, is on under 4.5 yellow cards. We expect more football action than clashes and disputes with the referee.