Latvia vs England Prediction for 15 October 2025 - Football

🔊 Can England secure their sixth consecutive win in the qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup? All signs point to yes. They were initially seen as the main favorites in Group K and have lived up to that status. However, it's fair to say that the team hasn't fully unleashed its potential in these qualifiers. Latvia, on the other hand, are significantly outclassed and have already lost any chance of even securing second place with two matches remaining. This, too, was quite expected. Thus, the favorite in this matchup is clear, but we'll explore various options to make an insightful prediction. It's worth noting that the match will take place in Riga, at the "Daugavas" Stadium.

Head-to-Head

📊 The only head-to-head meeting between the teams took place in March during the current qualifying tournament. On that occasion, Latvia traveled to London with a defensive mindset. They managed to create a single chance but failed to capitalize on it. Meanwhile, the English side had numerous opportunities to find the back of the net. Ultimately, they did so three times, securing a 3-0 victory. While it was a comprehensive win, the scoreline could have been even more lopsided.

Latvia Team Overview

Latvia kicked off the tournament with a win over Andorra (1-0) on the road. The pitch was challenging, making it difficult to create chances. This gave the impression of an evenly matched game. The visitors capitalized on a set piece, a common occurrence when playing conditions are less than ideal. In the first round, Latvia managed to take points from Albania (1-1) and only lost to England by more than one goal.

To continue their quest for a playoff spot, Latvia couldn't afford to drop points in their home match against Andorra. However, it was the visitors who struck first in the opening half. Latvia not only equalized but also took the lead. It seemed they were on course for victory, but with 12 minutes left in regulation time, Andorra found the net again, despite having not scored a single goal in the tournament prior to this match. The result was a 2-2 draw, which is far from satisfactory for Latvia.

England Team Overview

At one point, Gareth Southgate faced criticism for England's lackluster style of play. Despite consistently reaching the top, the team never clinched a trophy. Enter Thomas Tuchel, whose tenure hasn't brought dramatic changes. Most matches feature England's sterile possession and victories that come from sheer class. Defensively, they're solid. Jordan Pickford is close to becoming the second all-time leader in clean sheets for the national team. In this campaign, they haven't conceded a single goal. Offensively, they truly shone only against Serbia, netting five unanswered goals away. England currently tops their group and a win in Riga would secure them the top spot and a ticket to the World Cup.

This international break began with a friendly against Wales. Thomas Tuchel fielded a largely experimental lineup. After all, where better to assess players than in such matches? On the flip side, the German manager was missing several key starters. Nonetheless, they secured the result within the first 20 minutes, scoring all their goals to win 3-0. In the second half, the English side noticeably eased off. They failed to create any scoring chances and didn't manage a single shot on target against the Welsh.

Latest news

Latvia

🎙 Latvia's head coach Paolo Nicolato attributed the draw with Andorra to strong winds and a bit of bad luck. However, he didn't overlook his team's tactical mistakes: “We need to improve our quality of play. We conceded two goals far too easily for this level. Those were overly simple goals. In both instances, our positioning was flawed, and our reaction could have been quicker. There's nothing we can do but accept it. This is our current level, and we must acknowledge that mistakes are possible.”

✅ The Latvian national team is preparing for the match with a full squad.

England

🎙 Thomas Tuchel criticized the fans after the match against Wales: "By halftime, we could have been up 5-0. We couldn't score the fourth and fifth goals. The stadium was silent. We received no support from the stands, but we did everything to win. Our team deserved the victory; it's a step in the right direction. What more can you offer after scoring three goals in the first 20 minutes? Only the Welsh fans were heard for 30 minutes. It's a bit sad because the team deserved more."

❌ For various reasons, Thomas Tuchel did not call up Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, and Jack Grealish to the national squad, even though Grealish is experiencing a resurgence. Meanwhile, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Levi Colwill, Reece James, Cole Palmer, Adam Wharton, and Noni Madueke are sidelined with injuries. Harry Kane arrived with an injury and didn't play against Wales, and his replacement at the forefront, Ollie Watkins, picked up an injury after a collision with the post. Therefore, his participation in the upcoming fixture is in doubt.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by Anastasios Sidiropoulos from Greece. This season, he has overseen three European matches, issuing a total of 16 yellow cards. In his domestic league, the referee tends to be slightly more lenient, averaging four cautions per game. In this tournament, he officiated the Poland vs. Lithuania match, showing just three yellow cards.

In the current tournament, Latvia have been more prone to receiving yellow cards, averaging 2 compared to 0.8. This pattern was evident in their first-round head-to-head, where Latvia responded to England's first-half warning with two late cautions. During the March international break, England's opponents received more yellow cards. In other instances, they have managed to keep it to one or less without losing out on this metric. Therefore, it makes sense to bet on Latvia’s total yellow cards under 2.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

It's fair to say that England under Tuchel haven't been prolific scorers. The exception was their match against Serbia, where they scored five times, although two goals came when Serbia were down a man. In 20 of their last 22 matches, they have scored no more than three goals. Therefore, don't expect a goal fest in Riga, particularly from England. We recommend considering a bet on the visitors' total goals under 3.5.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Both teams come into this match with a tendency towards fewer corners. For instance, in 6 of England's last 7 away matches, there were no more than nine corners. Similarly, in 8 of Latvia's last 9 home games, there were a maximum of 10 corners. Therefore, we suggest betting on total corners under 10.5.

England are the favorites heading into this clash. In the current tournament, they've played just two away games, thrashing Serbia (5-0) but managing only a single goal against Andorra (1-0). For the upcoming match, a balanced prediction like a 2-0 victory seems reasonable.

England have kept clean sheets in 8 of their last 9 matches, making it unlikely for Latvia to score. On the flip side, England have scored no more than three goals in 20 of their last 22 games. Therefore, a key bet could be total goals under 3.5.