Portugal vs Hungary Prediction for 15 October 2025 - Football

🔊 Can Portugal secure their spot in the 2026 World Cup after just four qualifying matches? Hungary will give it their all to prevent that from happening. However, their chances of picking up points in Lisbon at the Estádio José Alvalade are slim. The hosts hold a five-point lead, ensuring the top spot in the group remains firmly in their grasp. Even if a shock defeat to Hungary occurs, dropping points against Ireland and Armenia seems unlikely. The odds for a Portugal victory are low, so we'll offer a more intriguing prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 Over their last 10 head-to-head encounters, Portugal have held a commanding advantage. Notably, Hungary have yet to secure a victory, with their sole draw occurring during Euro 2016 (3-3). The teams came close to this scoreline again in September during the first round of the current campaign, where the "team of shields" narrowly edged out a win on the road (3-2). It's worth highlighting that Barnabás Varga netted a brace for Hungary.

Some individual matchups have been highly prolific. However, in 10 consecutive meetings, Portugal have not scored more than three goals. Considering their recent struggles in finishing against Ireland, a reasonable prediction would be the hosts scoring under 3.5 goals.

Portugal Team Overview

Portugal are the reigning champions of the Nations League. This year, they began the playoffs with a loss to Denmark. However, they bounced back in the return leg, securing a victory in extra time. In the semifinals, Roberto Martinez's squad edged past Germany with a 2-1 win, and in the final, they overcame Spain in a penalty shootout, triumphing 3-2.

Portugal's World Cup qualifying campaign is shortened due to their participation in the Nations League playoffs. They find themselves in a relatively straightforward group, where they have maintained a perfect record across three matches. However, their victory against Hungary was secured only in the closing stages. A similar scenario unfolded recently against Ireland. The team took 30 shots on goal, but only one found the net, and that was in stoppage time. It could have been a simpler affair had Cristiano Ronaldo converted a penalty. Yet, given the circumstances, it's unlikely anyone would criticize the veteran, who failed to score for the national team for the first time in six matches.

Hungary Team Overview

The Hungarian national team entered the tournament not in the best form. They lost to Sweden and only narrowly defeated Azerbaijan. With a bit more luck, they could have challenged Portugal for the top spot in the group. In September, they failed to maintain a winning scoreline against Ireland (2-2), conceding in stoppage time, and spent most of the second half with ten men. They came close to taking points from Portugal as well, but Marco Rossi's side conceded four minutes before the end of regular time.

Recently, Hungary hosted Armenia and secured a somewhat unconvincing 2-0 victory. The scoreline could have been more decisive if their key forwards had been available. However, Dániel Lukács and Zsombor Gruber stepped up, each scoring their first goals for the senior national team.

Latest news

Portugal

🎙 Roberto Martinez believes the victory over Ireland was well-deserved: "The key was to remain calm, prevent their counterattacks, and neutralize any threat from set-pieces. Ultimately, they didn't have a single genuinely dangerous shot throughout the match. We should have scored the first goal earlier. Our off-the-ball play was at a very high level. I liked how the team performed—we didn't lose our composure. It was a tough but thoroughly deserved win."

❌ Portugal have no major squad issues. Only Joao Felix is absent due to muscle problems. In the upcoming match, Goncalo Inacio might not play after picking up an injury against Ireland and being substituted at halftime. However, Renato Veiga admirably filled in for him.

Hungary

🎙 Hungary's defender Bendeguz Bolla shared his thoughts on the victory over Armenia: “We prepared for a tough match. On the pitch, we felt that the opponent was strong, defending aggressively, and it was challenging for us... Once we took the lead, it seemed everyone calmed down a bit and played more openly. If we had been a bit more precise at the end, we could have scored more goals.”

✅ Barnabas Varga and Roland Sallai, Hungary's leading scorers, missed the match against Armenia. With their suspensions now over, they are expected to be back on the field in Lisbon.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The main referee for the match is Srdjan Jovanovic from Serbia. In his domestic league this season, he has officiated two matches, issuing 13 yellow cards. However, at the international level, he has been more lenient, showing just three cautions in two matches.

In the current tournament, Hungary have received yellow cards more frequently (2 compared to 1.3). Yet, in their head-to-head, Hungary were limited to one caution while Portugal had two. Given that the referee rarely issues warnings during World Cup qualifiers, we suggest betting on under 3.5 total yellow cards.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

In this tournament, Hungary have scored two goals in each match, though it was only enough to secure a victory against Armenia. Interestingly, in 5 out of their last 6 away fixtures in this tournament and the previous World Cup qualifiers, Marco Rossi's side found the net in the first half. This suggests they might score again in the upcoming clash. Therefore, a potential bet could be Hungary to score.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Portugal have the edge on corners in this tournament, averaging 6.3 compared to 4. However, matches involving these teams average fewer than eight corners. Their first-round head-to-head also fell short of this mark, with just seven corners recorded. Thus, we recommend betting on under 9.5 total corners.

Recently, Portugal performed decently on the pitch against Ireland, though they struggled with finishing their chances. Roberto Martinez is likely to make some changes to the lineup, but with so much attacking talent at his disposal, the quality won't drop off. The hosts are expected to secure their spot in the 2026 World Cup in this upcoming match, potentially clinching victory with a scoreline like 2-1.

Portugal have a class advantage over Hungary and should find the back of the net at home. However, the visitors have nothing to lose and will need to push forward offensively, especially with key attacking players returning to the lineup. Hungary have scored twice in each of their tournament matches, and they're likely to get on the scoresheet again in this encounter. Therefore, our key bet will be – both teams to score (yes).