San Marino vs Cyprus Prediction for today 12 October 2025 - Football

🔊 After two hard-fought home draws, Cyprus are set to travel to San Marino. Both national teams are the underdogs in Group H of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, yet they display varying levels of football. The Cypriots seize points whenever the opportunity arises, while the San Marino side relinquishes them without much resistance. Will the dynamics shift at the "Olimpico" stadium in Serravalle? Let's delve into our editorial's prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 The national teams are set to play their second match in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers and their fourth encounter overall. They first clashed in 2019 during the European Championship qualifiers, with both matches going in favor of the Cypriots (4-0; 5-0). This year, the match in Larnaca held no surprises, though the hosts' victory was more modest, ending 2-0.

San Marino Team Overview

The last successful highlight for San Marino's national team was their performance in the previous Nations League. Under Roberto Cevoli, they secured their last victory against Liechtenstein (3-1). The "White and Blues" even managed to qualify for Division C, edging out Gibraltar by one point. However, things returned to their usual state in the next official tournament—the qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup. Here, the Sanmarinese are on a streak of six consecutive defeats, having scored only once this year, back in March against Romania at home (1-5). The peak of humiliation came in a recent match against Austria. In Vienna, they conceded 10 unanswered goals, becoming the team with the weakest defense in the qualifiers, having let in 28 goals.

Cyprus Team Overview

The Cyprus national team thrives at home. All their points in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers have been secured in Larnaca under the guidance of Apostolos Mantzios. They have a victory against San Marino and two draws — with Romania and Bosnia. In these matches, the Cypriots showcased true grit. Trailing both opponents 0-2 during the games, they managed to level the score. The encounter with Bosnia was particularly thrilling, as they equalized only in stoppage time. Throughout the match, the islanders appeared more dominant: they controlled possession (65% to 35%) and generated more dangerous chances (1.95 xG compared to 1.37 xG).

Ioannis Pittas has been in fine form recently. The CSKA Sofia forward has scored twice in his last three club matches and secured a draw for his national team against Bosnia in added time. Konstantinos Laifis was the standout player in their most recent qualifier. The APOEL midfielder orchestrated play from his own half, touching the ball more than anyone else (101 times) and delivering the most successful long passes (6 out of 10). In the current qualification campaign, he has recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in five games.

Latest news

San Marino

🔝 Head coach Roberto Cevoli eagerly anticipates the return of seasoned midfielder Alessandro Golinucci. He missed the previous match due to a suspension. The 31-year-old player from San Marino's Virtus is the second most valuable player in the national team, with a Transfermarkt valuation of €100,000. Among the entire national squad, Golinucci has made the most appearances, featuring in 61 matches. With his club, the midfielder has participated in the qualifiers for all European competitions over the past two years.

❌ The flurry of goals conceded against Austria can be attributed to San Marino's defensive absences. Before the match, the head coach had to cope without Tommaso Benvenuti and Filippo Fabri. Both defenders are regular starters but missed the previous encounter due to injuries.

Cyprus

🎙 Cyprus head coach commented on the draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina. "If we had scored an early goal, our task might have been easier. But the opponent did that, which has been our problem for the second match in a row. However, once again, we did everything possible after conceding goals. We had the right attitude, we were passionate, and that was the most important thing. We wanted to secure a win and create a positive impression. But I believe that under these circumstances, we achieved our goals by not losing the game. There's always room for improvement, but it takes more time," said Apostolos Mantzios.

❌ Pieros Sotiriou is missing the current international fixtures due to injury. However, the APOEL striker was not the head coach's first choice in this campaign, having started only once and come off the bench twice. Over three matches, the forward played a total of 90 minutes.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The upcoming match will be officiated by Aliyar Agayev from Azerbaijan. Over his last five matches across all competitions, he has averaged four yellow cards per game. Both teams have played six qualifying matches. Cyprus' games have seen an average of four cautions, while San Marino's matches have averaged 3.5. We believe that in their current state, Cyprus are as challenging for San Marino as Brazil would be. The intensity of the match is unlikely to lead to a high number of bookings. Our prediction: total yellow cards under 4.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

San Marino possess the weakest defense among all the teams in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. They have conceded 28 goals in just five matches, averaging 5.6 per game. In 7 of their last 8 encounters, the "Biancoazzurri" have allowed two or more goals. Adding to their woes are defensive absences due to injuries. We believe Cyprus will have no trouble scoring over 1.5 goals.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Both teams rank outside the top 100 in the FIFA rankings, with a gap of 82 places between them, highlighting a clear difference in class. In matches against Romania and Bosnia, Cyprus dominated possession, averaging 62%. It's reasonable to expect a similar scenario in Serravalle. The "Biancoazzurri" struggle to earn set pieces near the opponent's goal, having averaged fewer than 2.5 corners in 7 of their last 8 World Cup qualifiers. Taking into account San Marino's home advantage, we're predicting San Marino's total corners under 3.5.

The upcoming opponents are the main underdogs of Group H, yet there is a significant gap between them. San Marino have not won in qualification for major tournaments for the last 58 matches. Yes, Cyprus also struggle on the road, currently on a streak of five defeats in official matches. However, none of their away games in the current qualifiers have been surrendered without a fight, as Apostolos Mantzios' side have accumulated a total of 3.32 xG over three matches. Considering the defensive vulnerabilities and personnel issues of the "Blue and Whites," we anticipate a confident victory for the visitors with a scoreline of 2-0. A bet on Cyprus to win with a -1.5 handicap seems like a well-founded prediction in this case.