Latvia vs Andorra Prediction for today 11 October 2025 - Football

🔊 Latvia have a chance to edge closer to securing the second spot in Group K of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. With potential slip-ups from Albania or Serbia, who face each other in a head-to-head clash, Paolo Nicolato's side could still have a mathematical shot at reaching the playoffs. On October 11, the Baltic side will host Europe's current underperformers, Andorra, in Kaunas. Andorra haven't won a match since 2022. Can the hosts seize this slim opportunity to join the race for second place, or will the visitors earn their first points in qualifying? We'll delve into these and other intriguing aspects of the match in our prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 With the introduction of the Nations League, national teams have been crossing paths more frequently. Before the tournament's inception, they faced each other only twice during the 2018 World Cup qualifiers. Since then, they've clashed seven times, including one match in the current World Cup qualifying campaign. Latvia have claimed victory five times over this stretch. Four matches ended in a draw. The most common scoreline in these encounters is 0-0, recorded on three occasions.

Latvia Team Overview

The defensive style of football employed by Latvia's Italian coach, Paolo Nicolato, has yielded certain dividends for the national team. The start of their World Cup qualification campaign was promising: by the September international break, the Baltic side were sitting third in Group K, just one point behind second-placed Albania. However, their head-to-head clash with Albania and a match against Serbia did not go as planned, both ending in narrow 0-1 defeats. Despite the setbacks, Latvia didn't look hopeless, accumulating a total of 1.68 xG and maintaining 42% possession on average.

As expected, Paolo Nicolato's team stands out for its defense. Often, promising attacks are launched from this line. For instance, one of the team's two goals was scored by center-back Antonijs Černomordijs, who plays for Riga. Another standout from the Latvian league is Roberts Savalnieks. The right-back is one of the top assist providers in local football, having delivered over 20 assists in the league over the past three seasons, with seven across all competitions this season. Notably, it was his pass that found Latvia's rising star, Dario Šits, in their victory over Andorra.

Andorra Team Overview

The Andorra national team haven't secured an official victory since 2022. Over the span of 15 matches since then, they've only managed to draw four times. Koldo Alvarez's squad hasn't shown signs of improvement either. In their last 16 games, including friendlies, Andorra have scored just three goals—fewer than San Marino, Liechtenstein, and Gibraltar, all of whom rank lower in the FIFA standings. In the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, Andorra and Liechtenstein are the only teams yet to score a goal or earn any points.

The standout player for Andorra is Iker Alvarez. The primary goalkeeper for both the national team and Córdoba in Spain's Segunda Division has been in remarkable form for his club. He started the season on the bench but has been in the starting lineup for the last three matches, earning Man of the Match honors in two of them. Another key player is midfielder Eric Valles. This summer, he made a move up from the Andorran league to join Serbia's second division, starting in the first four matches for FK Tekstilac Odzaci. However, he now mostly comes off the bench.

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Latvia

🎙 Latvia's head coach is preparing the team for the upcoming match against Andorra in a routine manner. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining organization across the lines, particularly in defense. "The teams have faced each other multiple times, and there's a certain history; the matches have been tense. Of course, we want to start the cycle with a winning result. I expect discipline, confidence, and a serious approach from my squad – in all these aspects, we can always be better than before," shared Paolo Nicolato about the expectations for the upcoming international cycle.

❌ The national team's biggest loss is their captain, Kristers Tobers. He injured his knee in a recent Scottish Premiership game for Aberdeen. A more severe injury, a cruciate ligament tear, was sustained by Arminia's forward Roberts Uldrikis, the team's third top scorer, during the German Cup quarterfinals.

Andorra

❌ The head coach of the Andorra national team is missing three experienced forwards. Aaron Sanchez, Alex Martinez, and Jordi Aláez have not joined the national squad for the training camp due to injuries. Notably, Aláez is currently the third-highest scorer among active players.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by Georgi Nikolov Kabakov from Bulgaria. Known as the most stringent referee in the local league, he averages 5.8 yellow cards per game over his last 20 matches. This should particularly concern the Latvians, as they've averaged 2.2 cautions in their last five official games, more than their opponents. Meanwhile, Andorra's record is more modest at just 1 card on average. We anticipate that the spirited Latvian team, despite being the hosts, will receive more yellow cards.

⚽️ Goal Predictions

These teams have a rich history of encounters in the lower divisions of the Nations League, so let's delve into their head-to-head stats. In 5 of their last 8 meetings, the first goal was scored in the second half. Notably, Andorra has conceded after the break in seven consecutive World Cup qualifiers. Given these circumstances, betting on Latvia to score in the second half seems like a well-founded prediction.

🚩 Corner Predictions

Despite Paolo Nicolato's pragmatic style, his team knows how to take charge, especially against lower-tier opponents like Andorra. In their last five head-to-head clashes, Latvia has averaged 60.4% possession. However, they have not earned more than five corners in any of their previous eight meetings. Considering their status as hosts, we predict Latvia's total corners to be under 6.5.

Latvia's performance at the start of the qualifiers was impressive, though their standing in Group K took a hit during the September international break. Even then, Paolo Nicolato's squad didn't play the role of pushovers, narrowly losing to Serbia and Albania. In each match, the head coach opted for a defensive 5-3-2 formation, but against Andorra, the hosts switched to a 3-5-2 setup. We believe that with this formation, the "Red-White-Reds" are likely to convert at least one of their chances and keep a clean sheet, given Andorra's poor scoring record compounded by injuries in their attack. The hosts should secure the game, even if it's just by a narrow 1-0 margin. The visitors are unlikely to have many opportunities, making a win for Latvia the most reasonable bet.