Iceland vs Ukraine Prediction for 11 October 2025 - Football

🔊 Iceland or Ukraine: who will come out on top in the battle for second place in Group D? Both national teams find themselves in a challenging position, having landed in a group with the clear favorites, France. Their only option is to fight for a spot in the playoffs. Iceland are currently higher in the standings and will have the home advantage at the Laugardalsvöllur Stadium in Reykjavik. However, bookmakers still see Ukraine as the favorites, given their roster's apparent superiority. But will this be enough for the "Yellow and Blue" to secure a positive result in this tough away fixture?

Head-to-Head

📊 These national teams don't face each other often, yet their head-to-head history, which began back in 1999, includes five matches. Ukraine holds a slight edge with two wins to Iceland's one. The "Yellow and Blues" claimed victory in the only recent encounter relevant for predicting the upcoming match, defeating Iceland in the Euro 2024 playoff final (2-1).

Iceland Team Overview

The Icelandic team have lost 4 out of 6 matches this year, with most of these setbacks occurring in the Nations League, where they were relegated to the third-tier division. However, in the World Cup qualifiers, Arnar Gunnlaugsson's squad, who took charge at the start of 2025, have shown promising form.

They secured a crucial victory against the group's underdogs, Azerbaijan, with a commanding 5-0 win, and then put up a strong fight against the favorites at the Parc des Princes. The "Vikings" came close to earning points, but Andri Gudjohnsen's second goal against France was disallowed after a VAR review. The final result was a disappointing 2-1 defeat, but this Iceland team evoked memories of the squad that captured hearts at Euro 2016.

Ukraine Team Overview

The Ukrainians have been underwhelming this year, with only a couple of wins in six matches to show for it. Even their victory over Belgium (3-1) in the Nations League play-offs proved futile, as the "Yellow and Blue" squandered their advantage in the return leg and were thrashed 3-0.

The situation is similarly bleak in World Cup qualifying, where they have managed just a single point from two rounds. A 2-0 loss to France was hardly a surprise, but a 1-1 draw with Azerbaijan, who had been dismantled by Iceland, is a worrying sign. Sergei Rebrov's side controlled the game but, despite 16 shots, could only muster an xG of 0.9, falling short of their opponents in this metric.

Latest news

Iceland

✅ Iceland face no squad issues ahead of the upcoming match. Albert Gudmundsson (Fiorentina), Hakon Arnar Haraldsson (Lille), Isak Bergmann Johannesson (Cologne), and other key players have been called up to the national team and are ready to take the field.

Ukraine

❌ The visitors face several significant absences. A host of national team stars will be missing: Oleksandr Zinchenko, Viktor Tsyhankov, Roman Yaremchuk, and Andriy Lunin. Additionally, Oleksandr Zubkov's absence could impact their threat on the flanks.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by Sven Jablonski, who has overseen four matches this season. His average for yellow cards stands at 3.25, and he hasn't shown any red cards yet. However, with this game being crucial in the standings and featuring evenly matched teams, we anticipate a lot of physical play and emotions running high. Therefore, betting on over 3.5 yellow cards seems justified.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

The Ukrainian national team has a notable vulnerability—they have conceded goals after the break in six consecutive away matches. Meanwhile, Iceland scored four goals in the second half against Azerbaijan in their last home game. Thus, there's a strong likelihood that this unfavorable trend for the "yellow and blue" will continue. We are backing the hosts to score in the 2nd half.

🚩 Corner Prediction

At home, Iceland plays aggressively, regardless of the opposition. This is evidenced by the fact that in 7 out of their last 8 home games, they've delivered at least four corners. This stretch includes matches against formidable opponents like Wales and Turkey, so against Ukraine, the "Vikings" should meet their usual standard. Based on this, we opt for over 3.5 corners for the hosts.

The Ukrainians haven't been impressive lately, so it's somewhat surprising that bookmakers have them as favorites for this away clash, especially considering their significant lineup losses. The Icelanders, on the other hand, face no such issues and have looked strong at the start of the qualifiers. Therefore, we predict a draw, with both teams sharing the points in a 1-1 stalemate. Our editorial team finds the most reasonable bet in this scenario to be on both teams to score (yes), which has hit in 8 of Ukraine's last 9 away matches.