Chelsea vs Benfica Prediction for 1 October 2025 - Football

🔊 Chelsea and Benfica are set to face each other for the second time this year on a major international stage. Their last encounter took place at the end of June during the Club World Cup, which the Blues ultimately won. However, their start in the Champions League was far from ideal, suffering a defeat to Bayern. Meanwhile, Benfica's result was even more surprising, as they fell to modest Qarabag on home turf. Which team will secure their first victory in the premier European competition? Let's delve into our analysis and make a well-founded prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 Benfica seem to be Chelsea's lucky charm in international tournaments. Every time the draw pairs these teams together, the London club goes on to win the competition. The first instance was in the 2011/12 Champions League, where they clashed in the quarterfinals, with Chelsea winning both legs (1-0; 2-1). The second was the Europa League final, which ended 2-1 in favor of the Blues. Most recently, they faced off in the Round of 16 at the Club World Cup, with another English victory (4-1 after extra time).

Chelsea Team Overview

Enzo Maresca's team is experiencing a downturn. Over their last five matches, Chelsea have managed just one win—in the English League Cup against Lincoln from the third division. In the Premier League, the Blues last picked up points three rounds ago with a draw against Brentford (2-2). Their next two fixtures ended in defeats—against Manchester United (1-2) and Brighton (1-3). Red cards for London players significantly impacted these results, but, for instance, in the match against Bayern at the Allianz Arena, both teams played with full squads. There, the Pensioners were outplayed across all metrics: in shots (9 to 16), expected goals (0.49 to 2.09), and ultimately the scoreline—1-3.

The standout player for Chelsea during this tough stretch has been Cole Palmer, who scored twice after recovering from injury. However, his time on the pitch was cut short by a recurrence of his injury. In his absence, Chelsea's attacking specialists failed to shine. Enzo Fernandez, Moises Caicedo, and Trevoh Chalobah stepped up instead, although Chalobah also drew attention for negative reasons—receiving a red card in the match against Brighton.

Benfica Lisbon Team Overview

Benfica started the season with an impressive nine-match unbeaten streak, maintaining clean sheets in their first six games. However, their run was halted by Qarabağ, who pulled off a shocking victory over Bruno Lage's side at the Estádio da Luz in the opening round of the Champions League group stage, winning 3-2. This defeat led to the dismissal of Lage. The Azerbaijani team did not concede territorial advantage to the hosts (47% to 53% in possession) and were more threatening in attack (1.56 xG to 1.18 xG). Following this setback, José Mourinho took over as Benfica's new manager, and his impact was immediate—guiding the team to two wins and a draw in the Primeira Liga.

Undoubtedly, Vangelis Pavlidis has been Benfica's standout performer for the second consecutive season. Although he had a slow start, the Greek forward has netted four goals and provided two assists in his last five matches. Newcomer Giorgi Sudakov is also in remarkable form. The former Shakhtar Donetsk midfielder, like Pavlidis, has recently found his scoring touch, registering an assist against Qarabağ and scoring two goals in the following two Primeira Liga fixtures.

Latest news

Chelsea

🎤 Chelsea's head coach has criticized his players for their careless play in recent matches. "We've made it absolutely clear to everyone: you can't keep giving gifts against any Premier League team. What we're doing now is handing out gifts in the form of red cards," said Enzo Maresca.

❌ Early in the season, Liam Delap and Dário Essugo were sidelined for an extended period due to injuries. Recently, they were joined by Cole Palmer, Tosin Adarabioyo, and Wesley Fofana. Since the Club World Cup, Levi Colwill has been recovering from an injury, but Benoît Badiashile and Romeo Lavia have fully recovered.

Benfica Lisbon

📌 The headline news for Benfica is undoubtedly the appointment of José Mourinho as head coach. This has immediately impacted not just on the pitch but off it as well. Ticket prices for the match against Chelsea, Mourinho's former team, have soared. Karim Benzema is contemplating a return to Europe, having received an invitation to Lisbon from the Portuguese tactician. Meanwhile, fans of Porto, another one of Mourinho's former clubs, have already crafted unflattering chants for the coach ahead of their head-to-head clash.

❌ In the upcoming match and foreseeable future, Benfica will be without Alexander Bah, Manu, and Bruma, who are sidelined with long-term injuries. However, summer signing Amar Dedić has fully recovered. He quickly bounced back from a knee injury that kept him out of the 4th round of the Primeira Liga, and he hasn't missed a start since his return.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by the main referee, Daniel Siebert from Germany. In the Bundesliga, he has averaged 4.1 yellow cards over his last 20 matches. In the previous Champions League season, this figure was slightly lower at 3.6 over six games, including playoff qualifiers. Notably, Siebert has already officiated a match between Jose Mourinho's former and current teams this season, issuing seven yellow cards in the clash between Fenerbahçe and Benfica for a spot in the main stage of the UCL.

Since the arrival of their new coach, Benfica have been picking up yellow cards more frequently—seven times in three matches. Chelsea have received even more in the same span, with 13 cards. Given the significance of the upcoming match, especially for "The Special One," it's clear tensions will be high. Our prediction: total yellow cards over 4.

⚽ Goals Prediction

Recent matches involving both teams have been quite entertaining. The total goals have exceeded 2.5 in Chelsea's last five consecutive games. Benfica have been even more prolific, with over 3.5 goals in 12 of their last 13 encounters. Additionally, only one of their last four head-to-head clashes saw fewer than three goals scored. We anticipate an open game with plenty of chances, so we'll bet on total goals over 2.5.

🚩 Corners Prediction

Since Jose Mourinho took charge, Benfica have earned 12 corners in three matches, including 11 in a single game against Rio Ave, where they controlled 69% of possession. However, teams under the Portuguese coach are not typically known for their prowess in positional play, so we don't expect a high number of corners from them this time around. Our bet: Chelsea to win on corners.

Bookmakers have pegged the hosts at Stamford Bridge as clear favorites for the upcoming clash, with Chelsea's odds more than three times better than Benfica's. However, we believe the match could unfold in a completely unpredictable manner. Chelsea's shaky form and the stakes of this fixture, given their head-to-head history, add layers of complexity to the encounter. Let's not forget the personal vendetta "The Special One" might have against his former team. The Blues have been trading goals in their last five matches, while the Eagles' attack is in peak form right now. We anticipate an exciting match with Chelsea edging it out (3-2). But, as mentioned earlier, the game could take an unexpected turn. Therefore, we suggest betting on both teams to score (yes).