Mainz vs Dortmund Prediction for 27 September 2025 - Football

🔊 Can Mainz secure their first home win of the season? The local side are set to host Borussia Dortmund at the Mewa Arena in the Bundesliga's fifth round. Dortmund continue their pursuit of Bayern and remain unbeaten this season. Whether they can clinch a fourth consecutive victory is uncertain, especially since they left empty-handed from this fixture last season. In our prediction, we will explore the most likely outcome of the upcoming clash.

Head-to-Head

📊 Over the last 35 encounters, Mainz have secured 7 wins, while Borussia have claimed victory 20 times, with 8 matches ending in a draw. Last season at the "Mewa Arena," the hosts came out on top with a 3-1 win, but in the return fixture in Dortmund, Borussia exacted revenge with the same scoreline.

Mainz Team Overview

🔴 In the fourth round, Mainz secured their first victory of the season with a commanding win over Augsburg (4-1). Goals from Kaisei Sano and Dominik Kohr put the 'Carnival Club' ahead before halftime, but Kohr was sent off early in the second half after receiving a second yellow card. Despite being down to ten men, the visitors maintained control of the match and sealed a resounding victory with precise strikes from Paul Nebel and Armindo Sieb. Augsburg's lone goal offered little consolation for the hosts. Mainz delivered an impressive performance across all facets, collecting four points from four matches and climbing to 13th place.

Borussia Dortmund Team Overview

🟡 For the first time in eight years, Borussia have reached double-digit points after four matches. Last weekend, Dortmund narrowly defeated Wolfsburg 1-0 at their Signal Iduna Park. Karim Adeyemi opened the scoring in the 20th minute with a powerful strike from outside the box. Despite the hosts' dominance, the match remained tense until the end: Wolfsburg had a chance to equalize, but the ball hit the crossbar. This victory marked Borussia's third consecutive league win and their eighth straight home triumph over the Wolves. Adding to the joy was the return of Nico Schlotterbeck, who played for the first time in six months after recovering from a meniscus tear. Kovac's team sits in 2nd place with 10 points, continuing their pursuit of Bayern Munich.

Latest news

Mainz

🎙 Head coach Bo Henriksen remarked after the match: "This is a very good result for us. We started the game well and maintained our momentum after the break. Despite the sending-off, the team remained disciplined and earned their first win of the season, which is very important for us."

❌ Due to a red card, Dominik Kohr will miss the next match. Anthony Caci has suffered a serious tendon injury and will be sidelined for several months, with his return expected only at the start of 2026. Benedict Hollerbach, Maxim Dahl, Daniel Gläber, and Lee Jae-sung are still in recovery.

Borussia Dortmund

🎙 Niko Kovac, after the match, said: "I'm pleased with our performance. We maintained our energy following the Champions League match, stayed compact in defense, and deserved the win. I'm particularly happy about Schlotterbeck's return—he's crucial for the stability of our defense. Keeping a clean sheet for the third consecutive match is a testament to our organization."

❌ In the upcoming round, Borussia will be without Emre Can (adductor issues), Niklas Süle (muscle injury), and Julien Duranville (shoulder injury). Aaron Anselmino and Fabio Silva remain doubtful.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by Tobias Reichel. In his last 10 games, he has averaged 4.5 yellow cards per match. Head-to-head encounters between Mainz and Borussia are typically not overly aggressive, with an average of 2.8 bookings (1.63 for Mainz and 1.17 for Dortmund). We anticipate a relatively clean game this time as well, predicting a total of fewer than 4.5 yellow cards.

⚽ Goal Prediction

Despite Borussia scoring just once in the last round, we expect them to find the net more often and predict their individual total to exceed 1.5 goals. Dortmund have achieved this in 11 of their last 12 Bundesliga matches, including 6 away games. Mainz, on the other hand, have conceded in every home game this season—against Köln and Leipzig in the league, and Rosenborg in the Conference League qualifiers.

🚩 Corner Prediction

In four rounds, Mainz have earned 27 corners (an average of 6.75 per game), while Borussia have managed 19 (4.75). We suggest betting on total corners under 9.5. This outcome has occurred in 5 of the last 6 head-to-head meetings and in Dortmund's last 6 away matches.

Despite Mainz's rough start at the Mewa Arena and Borussia's unbeaten streak with three clean sheets, bookmakers don't see the visitors as clear favorites. We anticipate an exciting and high-scoring match. Mainz are buoyed by their emphatic victory in Augsburg, while Borussia have been in fine form since the season's start. Therefore, our pick is over 2.5 goals. As for the outcome, we lean towards a 3-2 victory for Dortmund. The "Black and Yellows" have already dropped points on the road and understand that letting Bayern pull away early in the season could quickly kill any championship intrigue.