Man City vs Burnley Prediction for 27 September 2025 - Football

🔊 When will Manchester City stop dropping points? As the 6th round of the Premier League approaches, the "Citizens" have only secured two victories. Liverpool, by this point, have already amassed twice as many points, raising doubts about Pep Guardiola's side being in the title race. However, on September 27, bookmakers expect them to face little trouble against Burnley. How it will actually unfold remains to be seen—let's delve into this in our prediction. 

Head-to-Head

📊 Manchester City's total domination is the best way to describe their head-to-head encounters, and that pretty much sums it up. The last time Burnley troubled the "Citizens" was back in 2018, when they held them to a 1-1 draw. Since then, they've faced off 13 times, with Pep's side winning every single match, scoring a total of 46 goals (an average of 3.5 per game). The "Clarets" have only managed to score twice in that stretch. The most common scoreline is 5-0, with four matches ending that way.

Manchester City Team Overview

In the last round, Man City visited the Emirates, and we witnessed something unimaginable—Guardiola playing a five-defender setup to hold onto a lead! An early goal from Erling Haaland allowed for such a tactic, but seeing this from Pep, who practically invented modern dominant football, was quite the shock. Yet, they couldn't secure the win—Arsenal broke through the defense with a long pass in the dying moments, and Gianluigi Donnarumma conceded his first goal in a City shirt after an error coming off his line.

However, during the week, City remembered how to play their usual style, dominating possession with 76% of the ball against Huddersfield (2-0) in the League Cup. Admittedly, it was a second-string lineup (even Kalvin Phillips got some minutes), but it was enough to secure a classy victory. Phil Foden notched a goal and an assist, while James Trafford kept a clean sheet. All three of the Sky Blues' victories in September have been shutouts.

Burnley Team Overview

Burnley deserve respect at the start of the season. Despite a tough fixture list, they fight hard in every match, striving to pick up points. Their efforts against Manchester United (2-3) and Liverpool (0-1) were undone only by penalties conceded in stoppage time. However, the "Clarets" finally achieved their goal in the last round.

Scott Parker's protégés secured a draw with Nottingham Forest (1-1), thanks to another goal from Jaidon Anthony, his third of the current season. In the third round of the League Cup against Cardiff City, neither Anthony nor several other key players took the field, leading to a 1-2 exit with just two chances created during the game. Now, they can focus more intensively on their Premier League survival battle.

Latest news

Manchester City

🎙 Pep Guardiola seems quite pleased with the result against Arsenal: "I'm very proud, satisfied, I don't even know the right word to use. We've regained a lot of what we were missing last season. Our spirit is incredible. We can't play the way we did today throughout the entire season, but that's not our aim. Credit to the opposition. Arsenal are capable of doing to teams in most of their matches what they did today. I want to learn how to celebrate when we draw like we did in this away game against Arsenal – a Champions League semifinalist and a contender in recent seasons. I want to celebrate this point we've earned."

❌ In Manchester City's injury list remain Rayan Aït-Nouri and Omar Marmoush. Following the game against Arsenal, Abdikodir Khusanov joined them and will miss around three matches. However, there is some positive news – Mateo Kovacic and Rayan Cherki have returned to training.

Burnley

🔝 Martin Dubravka made seven saves in the match against Nottingham, marking the best performance among all goalkeepers in the current Premier League season. The Slovakian earned a spot in WhoScored's Team of the Week for Matchday 5 with a rating of 7.81.

❌ Zeki Amdouni, Connor Roberts, and Jordan Beyer have been sidelined with long-term injuries and haven't featured this season. Jakob Bruun Larsen has also missed the last two rounds due to an injury, but according to Scott Parker, the Dane has been back in training with the team and is set to be available for selection.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

Robert Jones has officiated two Premier League matches this season, issuing seven yellow cards. However, his average in the previous campaign was significantly higher at 4.3 cautions per game.

We don't anticipate the Englishman frequently reaching for his pocket. The total under 3.5 yellow cards has hit in 7 out of Burnley's last 8 official matches, and both teams today have a trend of low bookings, which you can explore in the relevant section of our website.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

We've already established that scoring against Man City is a rare celebration for Burnley players. This season, Scott Parker's side faced two top-tier opponents (we can't quite include Man United in that category), and they failed to score against both Tottenham and Liverpool. Given how frequently Guardiola's side has been keeping clean sheets, a bet on both teams to score (no) seems logical.

🚩 Corner Prediction

City will be playing at home, and with Burnley not being Arsenal, we expect a dominant possession game from the "Citizens." In such a scenario, Guardiola's protégés are likely to outdo Burnley in terms of corners (as their opponents might not win any), but they're unlikely to reach exorbitant numbers. Trends suggest this too: Man City have taken less than 8.5 corners in the last nine head-to-head meetings and in 14 of their last 15 Premier League matches.

Let's be upfront: we're not offering anything out of the ordinary here. We expect the hosts to dominate possession and effectively turn their control into goals on the scoreboard. While we don't anticipate a blowout, a confident 3-0 victory for the "Citizens" seems quite plausible. In this scenario, we won't overcomplicate things and will opt for a straightforward bet on Manchester City to win with a -1.5 handicap, a result that has occurred in their last ten head-to-head encounters with Burnley.