Lazio vs Roma Prediction for 21 September 2025 - Football

📢 What to expect from the Rome derby between Lazio and Roma, the highlight of the fourth round in the Italian championship? The clash at the Stadio Olimpico is traditionally a sell-out and captures the attention of football fans across Europe. Regardless of the teams' current form, the derby's atmosphere and intensity elevate the game to a unique level. Both the "Eagles" and the "Wolves" have had a shaky start to the season, but in such encounters, statistics often take a back seat.

Head-to-Head

📊 The recent head-to-head history between Lazio and Roma shows a slight edge for the "Giallorossi": out of 43 matches, they have claimed victory in 21, while the "Biancocelesti" have secured 14 wins, with 8 draws. Last season's Rome derby was tense and fiercely contested: in the first leg, where Roma were the designated hosts, the "Giallorossi" triumphed 2-0, while the second leg ended in a 1-1 draw.

Lazio Rome Team Overview

🔵 Before the season kicked off, many experts foresaw significant challenges for Lazio due to their transfer ban: the club was unable to bring in new players and had to rely on their existing squad. These predictions largely came true, as the Eagles had a rocky start.

❌ After three rounds, the team has only secured three out of a possible nine points, which is far from enough for a side aiming for European competition. The previous round was particularly telling, as Lazio fell to Sassuolo (0-1), a team that had just returned to the top flight. Moreover, the Eagles looked unconvincing on the pitch; according to key statistical metrics, including xG (0.86-1.22), they were outperformed by their opponents and deservedly suffered defeat.

Roma Team Overview

🔴 Roma are still searching for their rhythm following significant changes in their coaching staff. Gian Piero Gasperini, known for his attacking football philosophy, is trying to instill it within the team, but it's proving challenging in the early stages. All three of their opening matches ended with the same scoreline of 1-0, and not always in favor of the Giallorossi.

❓ After two narrow victories, the Romans suffered a home defeat to Torino (0-1) in the third round. Despite appearing quite aggressive in this match, Roma controlled 73% of the possession and took numerous shots, yet struggled with accuracy and finishing in the final third. This remains the primary issue for Roma at the start of the season.

Latest news

Lazio Rome

📣 Marco Ianni, assistant to Maurizio Sarri, admitted after Lazio's 1-0 defeat to Sassuolo that the team did too little to secure a victory: "We did too little to win. At certain moments, we controlled the game but played too slowly." According to Ianni, Lazio failed to display the necessary sharpness: "We created very few chances. Lazio need to be more aggressive in attack. It's a shame we disappointed the fans who came out in large numbers."

🚫 Lazio are facing significant squad issues. Patric, Samuel Gigot, and Matias Vecino are dealing with muscle injuries, casting doubt on their participation in the upcoming match. Manuel Lazzari will also be unavailable to support his teammates, with his return expected only at the beginning of October.

Roma

📣 Gian Piero Gasperini, the Roma manager, noted that overall the team performed decently: "In some ways, we played correctly, but we lacked pace. In such evenly matched games, you can't allow the opponent to take the lead." Gasperini added that Roma struggled to create chances: "The team confidently controlled possession, but we weren't dangerous. When you hit a wall and can't break through with passes in attack, it becomes very difficult."

🚫 Roma are also dealing with significant absences. Edoardo Bove remains sidelined due to heart issues, with no clear timeline for his return. Leon Bailey is dealing with a muscle injury, making his participation in the match uncertain. Paulo Dybala is recovering from a leg injury and is expected to return only by early October.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

⚽️ Goal Prediction

The Rome derby has long been known for its cautious nature: in the last seven head-to-head encounters between Lazio and Roma, the total goals under 2.5 bet has consistently come through. Interestingly, both teams generally favor attacking football and often deliver high-scoring matches in other fixtures. However, in the derby, their style shifts — the rivals play with utmost caution, value every moment, and strive to minimize mistakes.

🚩 Corner Prediction

In the Rome derby, Roma rarely wins many corners — in the last seven matches against Lazio, the "Giallorossi" have managed no more than five corners. This statistic highlights the nature of the derby: both teams play carefully, invest a lot of effort in midfield battles, and rarely reach the corner flag. Therefore, our pick is Roma total under 5.5 corners.