Bayern vs Chelsea Prediction for 18 September 2025 - Football

🔊 The legendary duo from the 2012 Champions League final, Chelsea and Bayern, are set to face off in the opening match of this year's competition. Since that iconic clash, the teams have collectively claimed three Champions League titles, with Bayern having one more than Chelsea. However, Chelsea hold the record for the most international club trophies. Who will come out on top in their head-to-head in Munich on September 17? Let's dive into the editorial team's prediction.

Head-to-Head

📊 These teams share a rich history of encounters. They first clashed in the quarterfinals of the distant 2004/05 Champions League. Back then, they exchanged home victories, but Chelsea advanced on aggregate. This was followed by a historic final in Munich for the Londoners, where they claimed their first Champions League trophy. Since then, Bayern have been the victors, winning the 2013 UEFA Super Cup and the 2019/20 Champions League Round of 16.

Bayern Munich Team Overview

The Munich side underwent a cleansing season without trophies, but with the arrival of Vincent Kompany, they swiftly reclaimed the Bundesliga title. However, their luck ran out in other competitions: they reached the last 16 of the DFB-Pokal and the quarter-finals of the Champions League. This summer, like Chelsea, Bayern traveled to the U.S. for the Club World Cup, where they were knocked out in the quarter-finals by PSG. Nevertheless, their official season has been flawless: they kicked off with a victory over Stuttgart in the German Super Cup (2-1) and have won three Bundesliga matches and one cup game with a combined score of 17-4.

Bayern's revamped attack is demolishing everything in its path. The trio of Gnabry, Dias, and Kane have collectively notched up 10 goals and 7 assists. Michael Olise remains in superb form after an impressive last season (20+21 across all competitions), tallying 3 goals and an assist in four Bundesliga matches.

Chelsea Team Overview

Surprisingly, Chelsea have been absent from the Champions League for two years. However, the Blues haven't wasted any time. Last season proved to be a breakthrough with the arrival of new head coach Enzo Maresca. He not only guided the Londoners back into the Champions League spots in the Premier League but also clinched the UEFA Europa Conference League trophy. Their success didn't stop there: this summer, Chelsea became the first winners of the revamped Club World Cup, and in the current Premier League campaign, they remain one of three unbeaten teams alongside Liverpool and Crystal Palace.

The revamped Chelsea roster after the summer transfer window has introduced new heroes. The standout is former Brighton striker Joao Pedro. The Brazilian has tallied 2 goals and 3 assists in four Premier League matches. The team's long-standing leaders, Enzo Fernandez and Moises Caicedo, continue to deliver as well, each netting 2 goals in the league.

Latest news

Bayern Munich

🎙 Bayern's head coach exudes confidence ahead of their Champions League clash with Chelsea. "It's a home game. Playing at the Allianz Arena is a significant advantage. As with any other match, we'll strive for victory—whether the opponent has spent a billion on players or just 10 million. Our objective remains the same. We've been working together for over a year now, and we understand each other better and operate more instinctively than we did in the early months of last season when we were just starting out," shared Vincent Kompany about the upcoming encounter.

❌ Bayern will be without two defenders and a midfielder against Chelsea. Alphonso Davies and Hiroki Ito have been sidelined since last season, and their absence has been largely unnoticed by the team. However, the loss of Jamal Musiala during the summer preseason is more significant—due to a broken leg, he won't be back on the pitch anytime soon.

Chelsea

🎙 Chelsea, under Todd Boehly's stewardship, have remarkably managed a balanced transfer window for the first time, nearly breaking even on their transfer expenditures. This was largely due to an aggressive sales strategy. However, not all former stars have been offloaded. Enzo Maresca recently commented on the future of two current players: “Since the start of the season, I haven't seen some players. I haven't seen Axel Disasi, haven't seen Raheem Sterling, because they train at different times and on a different pitch. They are Chelsea players because they have contracts with the club. Right now, they are still training separately. The idea is to continue in this manner. Do they have a chance to return to the main squad? With us? No,” said the Chelsea head coach.

❌ Recently, it was revealed that Liam Delap's recovery will not see him return before December. The new Chelsea forward joined an already extensive injury list at the start of the season, which includes Levi Colwill, Benoît Badiashile, and Romeo Lavia. Estevao missed the last Premier League round due to illness. However, the coach is hopeful for his swift recovery, as the Brazilian has started in 2 out of 3 league matches this season.

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards

The match will be officiated by Spanish referee José María Sánchez Martínez. This referee is in high demand at all levels, having already officiated five matches in La Liga and World Cup, Champions League, and Europa League qualifiers. On average, he hands out 3.1 yellow cards per game. Bayern Munich almost matches this statistic, averaging 2.8 yellow cards over five matches. Chelsea, however, plays more conservatively, with an average of 1.75 yellow cards. Interestingly, Bayern tend to receive more yellow cards than their opponents, even against lower-tier teams (only against Hamburg was the yellow card count equal). We believe that together, the teams will earn more than 3 yellow cards.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Bayern have yet to concede a goal at the Allianz Arena, with clean sheets against RB Leipzig and a 5-0 win over Hamburg. However, on the road, the Reds face defensive challenges even against modest clubs (3-2 against Augsburg and Wehen from the 3rd division). In six head-to-head encounters with Chelsea, only once did Bayern keep a clean sheet. In Munich, we anticipate an entertaining match, so we'll back our expectations with a bet on both teams to score (yes).

🚩 Corner Prediction

Among all Bundesliga opponents, only Hamburg failed to deliver more than three corners against Bayern. Chelsea, on the other hand, has earned more than 3.5 corners in 15 of their last 16 matches. This season, set-pieces from the corner flag have become a key strength for the Blues—prior to the Brentford match, 3 out of their 5 goals came from corners. It's almost certain that Chelsea's total corners will exceed 3.5.

Bookmakers are almost three times more confident in the hosts. However, this margin seems too large given Chelsea's current form. Yes, the Londoners drop points more frequently than their upcoming opponents in the league. But, for instance, the squad rotation against Brentford was far more significant for the "Blues" than it was for Bayern against Hamburg, a former second Bundesliga team. Let's not forget the phenomenal performance by Enzo Maresca's side against PSG at the Club World Cup. Although both coaches have been at their posts for the same duration, the Italian seems to have more experience than Vincent Kompany, at least by perception. The home advantage will undoubtedly favor Bayern, but we do not expect a big win from them—at most a 2-1 victory. Chelsea's underdog status allows for a bet on Chelsea to win with a handicap (+1.5).